America’s year of withdrawal: How did Trump’s first year go?

Throughout 2025, the entire world watched the US with bated breath, so to speak. Taking office far more independent of the establishment and national norms compared to his first term, every appearance Trump made on screen signaled a potential scandal, or even the start of a crisis where diplomatic standoffs could escalate into violence.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was lured into what he thought was a routine meeting with the American President, only to be forced to watch a short film about the alleged persecution of white people in his country. In the same room, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy received a lengthy dressing down from J.D. Vance and Trump, and had to jump through hoops just to avoid losing American war support entirely. From then on, every leader visiting the White House would arrive contemplating the possibility of a similar disaster, unable to act at ease. This was exactly the message Trump—who wanted to restart almost all diplomatic relations from scratch—intended to send. The old US was gone.

Every standoff by Trump created the perception that “war is starting now!” yet war never actually began. When nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran were struck, the Israeli side was over the moon, believing their desires for regime change in Iran would finally materialize. However, after the attack, Trump chose to say, “this matter is closed here.” A similar scene unfolded during the Venezuela crisis. Attacks on boats and threats flying through the air suggested war was imminent, yet the button was never pushed. Even relations with Russia remained at this level. Deadlines refreshed throughout the year and threats like “If Putin doesn’t accept in 60 days, I’ll give Tomahawks to Ukraine!” never turned into reality.

By now, the pattern of this carrot-and-stick strategy was recognized by everyone.

An unsatisfactory balance sheet

Trump’s domestic policy performance, however, is controversial. The Trump administration announced that in 2025, it deported 605,000 illegal immigrants, while a total of 1.9 million immigrants left the country voluntarily. Considering Trump’s target of “deporting 1 million immigrants” a year, this must be pleasing for Trump supporters. By comparison, Obama’s highest annual deportation was 438,000, and Biden’s was 271,000. In short, by sending away a total of 2.5 million immigrants, Trump more than kept his promise.

Another of Trump’s domestic policy promises was the fight against liberal identity politics, or “Wokeism.” Gender and race quotas introduced during the Biden era in all state institutions, primarily the military, were abolished, and pressure was applied to the private sector on this issue. Considering the perceived decline of “woke” influence in the media, Trump can take partial credit here. Of course, the conservatives’ goal is to completely eradicate the woke influence by 2028. Given that Democrats still embrace woke ideology, time will tell how realistic this goal is.

Although not strictly Trump’s promise, cutting government spending became government policy, partly due to Elon Musk’s influence. After the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Musk began meddling in every aspect of the state, causing a backlash in other government ministries. Still, DOGE announced savings of $214 billion by cutting spending. There was just one problem; in 2025, the US debt increased by exactly $2.23 trillion. The passing of the new budget containing tax cuts, which Trump called the “big beautiful bill,” played a major role in this. This budget was also the cause of the split between the two men.

The economy is a mixed bag. Although growth figures recovered in the second half of the year, the American public does not feel economically secure. Just like in Biden’s final term, Americans’ complaints about purchasing power are significant. While unemployment approaches 2021 pandemic levels, the global tariffs introduced by Trump rendered inflation-curbing policies ineffective. When announcing these tariffs, Trump claimed they would bring many jobs back with companies returning to the country. Even if true, this is a policy that pays off in the long run.

In addition to all this, the longest government shutdown in American history occurred. The 43-day shutdown was related to the imminent expiration of the healthcare law passed during the Obama era.

What does the public say?

As predicted, Trump’s approval rating in the general public is low. 60% of Americans currently disapprove of Trump. In the economy, the area where he is criticized most, he receives only 33% support; 37% in foreign policy, and 51% in fighting crime. There is still sympathy for Trump among Americans regarding immigration and crime. The fact that Democrats canceled the “autopsy report”—intended to reveal what they did wrong in 2024—after starting to get good results in local politics shows they will persist with the same policies. Naturally, this increases Trump’s credit among Americans who care about the immigration issue.

There is a growing civil war, perhaps not within the party, but in the eyes of the public. This civil war at the heart of American political debate has pitted “America First” conservatives against “Israel First” conservatives. In the conservative sphere, where support for Israel was previously an indisputable norm, many opinion leaders are now criticizing Israel more loudly. Platform owners are subjected to heavy pressure from lobby groups demanding these criticisms be silenced. This brawl has not yet fully spread from the public to politicians. A few dissenting voices in Congress were quickly silenced. However, this oppositional stance, especially among the youth, cannot be contained. Figures like Nick Fuentes, who use rhetoric bordering on the far-right and fascism on many points, are gaining significant influence over young conservatives.

What to expect from 2026?

2026 will be an election year in the US. A period is approaching where Trump has established the framework of the policies he wants to install in both domestic and foreign policy and expects to see results. This means new areas of interest in American foreign policy will heat up. I am talking about Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and of course, the EU. Policies may come to the agenda to dismantle the EU, which is identified as a threat to both the US and Europe in Trump’s strategy text. Additionally, conflict may re-emerge in old spheres of influence like the Middle East, which Trump expects to be closed off by now. Between Israel’s demands on Lebanon and Iran, and the deadlock in Syria, we will understand in 2026 to what extent the US will close the Middle East chapter.

In domestic politics, there will be quite a ruckus. Trump has been plagued by the Epstein case for some time. The more he covers it up, the more documents emerge from the congressional committee. Not only opposition Democrats but also Trump’s own voters are curious about the background of the Epstein issue. Clearly, we will hear a lot about the Epstein topic in 2026 as well.

Judging by the polls, it seems likely Republicans will lose the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. If undisputed control in Congress is lost, Trump’s radical stance in the administration will change accordingly.

The Ukraine War, as the Trump administration has repeatedly stated, does not form the basis of their policies. Trump said he would walk away from the table if he failed to bring peace. So, a return to the Biden-era armament policy does not seem likely.

As I said at the beginning, Trump’s foreign policy strategies are now understood by world public opinion. I am not sure how much longer his bluffs can be successful. Eventually, Trump may resort to violence to achieve the radical changes he wants. Violence is currently escalating piece by piece in Venezuela. If covert operations and airstrikes do not yield benefits, they might even attempt a military operation. Moreover, Colombia and even Mexico are waiting in the wings. The US success in Venezuela will determine the fate of the others.

2025 was the year of “Strategic Retreat” for American foreign policy. Instead of spreading across the whole world, the US chooses to concentrate its power in specific regions. 2026 will be the year they expect this concentration to bear fruit.

Finally, there is a question everyone in the US is wondering about; what will happen to MAGA after Trump? Even if we don’t get the answer in 2026, we will get various clues. Many figures are preparing for the post-Trump era. We will see if the Republican Party will cozy up to the establishment again or if MAGA will continue to chart its own path. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was previously thought to be the heir apparent but faded away after the midterms, is trying to raise his head again. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, a favorite figure of the establishment, will clearly emerge as a rival to J.D. Vance. Unless, of course, Trump stubbornly starts preparing for a third term in 2028! Happy New Year to everyone.