Particularly recently, in the programs I attended with international specialists and analysts, I began to hear statements that praise Turkey very frequently for the careful/balanced policy it took in the Ukraine war. A significant portion of the American press, excluding those who constantly oppose Turkey, has either ended or significantly curbed its criticism of that country. Or, they are obliged to discuss Turkey’s specific policies and the advantages these offer for both Turkey and the West in their critique.
The Grain Agreement and, more importantly, the preparation for the meeting of the American and Russian foreign intelligence chiefs in Ankara while maintaining stable relations with NATO and its Western “allies” on the one hand and refusing to participate in the sanctions imposed against Russia on the other, mark the success of Turkey’s policy. Substantially, this cautious and well-balanced approach, which Ankara developed in the weeks and months leading up to the Ukraine War, is pragmatic in nature and based on national interest. Aiming to be equally distant from both sides, this policy gives more advantages to the stronger side, Moscow. However, in a wide range, from denouncing Russia’s actions on Ukrainian soil in decisions made within the Western world and especially NATO to supplying crucial military supplies to Kyiv and enabling Ukraine to sell its grain with the Grain Agreement, Ankara’s initiatives satisfy both sides. So much so that Ankara can take the lead in the effort to bring Russia and Ukraine together, something that the US and EU countries also desire. This role, which was initially considered one of “facilitator,” may even evolve into one of “mediator,” going so far as to present peace proposals to the parties.
Like every other state, Turkey has been adversely affected by this policy to a certain extent. Still, it has also reaped some significant benefits. More gains may be forthcoming due to this practical approach. For instance, the industry in Turkey has been able to keep running thanks to the comparatively cheap energy it has been receiving from Russia up until this point. Especially in Europe, where people were trying to avoid consuming Russian oil and natural gas, industrial facilities became seriously alarming because of the extremely expensive LPG imported from America and the oil acquired from other nations. In reality, we are aware of facilities and brands that are unable to produce in specific markets in search of Turkish companies to get into contract manufacturing arrangements. It would be conceivable to attract substantial industrial investments to Turkey from European nations such as Italy, Germany, and France if this process, which could result in the liquidation of the industry in the aforementioned countries, is skillfully controlled and an engaging environment is created. Possibly, the expansion of the energy hub project agreed upon with Russia to grain issues, as well as Turkey’s taking on more comprehensive economic and commercial roles in these areas beyond being just a route and a buyer/seller, may offer exceptional new advantages. It is feasible to talk about the enormous benefits if we include the cooperation between the two nations in the defense industry to be made in the upcoming years.
It can be observed in many ways that Moscow, whose relations with Greece and Greek Cyprus, which have become a distant outpost of the United States, have radically deteriorated while getting closer to Turkey, has moved away from the one-state United Cyprus policy it has followed so far and approaches the two-state solution formula.
Turkey has made extensive strategic gains as well. For example, thanks to the improved relations with Russia and Turkey, the admission of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) to the Organization of Turkish States as an observer member with its constitutional name will be viewed as one of the turning points in the history of the struggle for Cyprus. Undoubtedly, it is vital to emphasize that even Russia has the propensity to recognize the TRNC. In many ways, it is clear that Moscow has moved away from the United Cyprus policy it had been pursuing so far in favor of the two-state solution. This is because its relations with Greece and Greek Cyprus, which have turned into a far-flung outpost of the United States, have drastically deteriorated, whereas Russia has become closer to Turkey.
Multipolarity
By all means, the growing multipolar global order is what makes all this possible. With the Ukraine War, Russia and China’s gradually growing objections to the American-led unipolar world order have ushered in an inescapable new era. On the one hand, the great powers and medium-sized states, especially China, having global power who suddenly want to change the world into a multipolarity in the wake of the conflicts in Ukraine and the great information war that broke out in the media, and those who want to maintain the US-based unipolarity on the other, the struggle is still going strong. It seems that the multipolar world system is unavoidable at this point. Given the leaked reports in the American press about the USA and Europe’s gradually shifting positions from thinking that Russia would be tamed by economic sanctions to finding a solution through negotiations and their encouragement of Zelensky to meet with Putin—most likely without preconditions—multipolarity was subtly accepted. Even though the war in Ukraine has not yet ended, and its tension will be aggravated, the crucial issue is that the military conflicts here are almost unlikely to result in the direction desired by the United States and the Collective West.
This fact also reveals that the Collective West will eventually need to assess Russia’s security concerns. On the other hand, it always appears possible for the United States and its allies to wage a proxy war against China over Taiwan but determining how and when to start is too complicated to be planned quickly. It is difficult to foresee whether the Taiwanese are inclined to join China in a particular status or rebel against Beijing for independence and how it will evolve over the years. For instance, the most recent municipal elections demonstrated that the pro-independence party and its leader suffered significant losses. Additionally, it may be claimed that the trade wars between the USA and Europe, which are already raging, will definitely intensify with the subsidies, tax breaks, and other incentives Washington is to start applying to the goods produced in the States. Therefore, struggling to keep its allies on its side, America may shift away from long-term unity with especially industrial heavyweights like Germany, France, and Italy in all things. Moreover, the Collective West cannot prevent the world from turning into a multipolar state even if it retains its unity merely.
Turkey and multipolarity
Turkey will benefit significantly from the multipolar global order, provided it is appropriately managed. On the condition that the policy taken since the Ukraine War is maintained, it appears plausible that Turkey can keep its ties with the West through NATO membership based on “normality suitable for the multipolar order” while also developing extensive economic, commercial, and even defense-industrial relations with the wider Asia, particularly with Russia and China. Particularly in the past year, Turkey’s geographic advantages and the upsides of its state mentality have demonstrated that all these are possible. Stripping the foreign policy of the ideological/emotional discourse that has caused severe problems in relations with the region’s countries and replacing it with pragmatism based on national interests since the end of 2020 undoubtedly provided Ankara with additional opportunities. After normalization with Israel, similar steps taken in Egypt and Syria made Turkey a regional powerhouse that forged close ties with Israel, Iran, Russia, and the West based on shared interests.
Although the most common multipolarity—bipolarity and unipolarity are exceptional periods—that we observe in global political and military history appears to bring enormous benefits, it may not be possible for this process to take shape without significant tensions, even large-scale conflicts and proxy wars. Turkey will achieve substantial gains in this tumultuous period and assume its place by turning into a middle-sized powerhouse in multiple regions of the multipolar world provided that it pursues a balanced and cautious policy, just like in the Ukraine War, aimed at getting economic, military, and commercial advantages without being a direct party to tensions and conflicts.
