Asian buyers scramble for Russian oil after US sanctions waiver

Asian governments are moving quickly to secure Russian oil supplies after the US temporarily lifted sanctions, opening a window for the purchase of previously restricted cargoes.

The rush follows Washington’s decision to suspend sanctions in an effort to offset disruptions to supplies from the Middle East. Facing rising prices and tightening supply, India has stepped up crude purchases from Russia, while Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia have signalled openness to buying Russian barrels. China, previously the largest buyer of Russian crude before the Iran war, has continued its purchases.

Russian oil had traded at a significant discount prior to US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Sanctions imposed by the US and its allies after Russia’s intervention in Ukraine led many countries to avoid buying Russian crude.

In 2025, only a handful of countries—chiefly China, India and Türkiye—continued to purchase Russian oil on a large scale, according to data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

India had begun reducing purchases under a February 2026 agreement with US President Donald Trump, which cut tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%.

Commodity intelligence firm Kpler estimated on March 6 that around 130 million barrels of Russian crude were stranded at sea, with 54 million barrels located between the Suez Canal and Singapore.

On March 13, the US announced a 30-day waiver allowing trade in sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products that were already at sea. Asian buyers, eager to secure supplies, are moving swiftly to take advantage.

Russian export benchmark Urals crude has risen sharply. Prices climbed from $58.16 a barrel on February 27-the day before US strikes on Iran—to as high as $100 in early March, before easing to around $90 on Wednesday, roughly in line with global benchmark Brent crude.

India has now doubled its Russian oil purchases to roughly 1.8 million barrels per day, according to Kpler. The firm said before the US waiver that Russian supply could provide a buffer in the long term but would not fully offset the roughly 2.6 million barrels per day India typically sources from the Middle East.

China, and to a lesser extent Türkiye, have also begun building inventories. However, China’s purchases have not surged significantly, partly because India had started to scale back buying earlier.

Major Chinese players are re-engaging with the market. State-owned oil companies Sinopec and PetroChina have discussed potential purchases with suppliers for the first time since November.

“China and India will compete for many of the Russian barrels stranded at sea,” said Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy.

Cosimo Ries, an analyst at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China, said China remains relatively insulated thanks to its large reserves but warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would be “highly destructive” for Asia’s largest economy. Rising global oil prices have already pushed up domestic fuel costs, with another increase expected next week.

“China cannot fully insulate itself even if supplies are seriously disrupted,” Ries said, adding that global market prices would affect China even if it continued to access Iranian crude.

Southeast Asian governments that had previously avoided Russian oil are now reassessing.

In the Philippines, state-backed Philippine National Oil Company—an ally of the US—contacted Russian suppliers on Monday, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said.

Garin added that Manila had also reached out to long-standing fuel suppliers including China, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Japan, while warning that existing contracts must be honoured as countries seek to prevent domestic shortages.

Thailand, another US ally, has begun discussions with Russia over potential oil purchases, Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said on Tuesday. Bangkok is also engaging with alternative suppliers such as Brazil, Nigeria and Kazakhstan.

Indonesia, a net oil importer, has indicated it is open to buying Russian crude. “Every country is an option. What matters for us now is securing supply,” Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said.

Indonesia had previously examined the possibility of purchasing Russian crude in 2024, when state oil company Pertamina submitted a bid. However, in February 2026, Jakarta declined to proceed in the face of proposed European Union sanctions.

Russian crude alone is unlikely to fully compensate for lost Middle Eastern supply.

“I don’t think Russian crude will bring prices down,” an industry expert told Nikkei Asia.

“It may cap the increase to some extent, but what we are more likely to see is competition for existing barrels in Asia, particularly involving China and India. These are largely rerouted cargoes rather than new supply,” the expert added.

Many refineries in the region are technically capable of processing Russian crude.

“Many Asian refineries are already configured for medium-sour crude, so it is technically compatible,” the source said. “But blending, logistics and sanction-related frictions are still slowing things down.”