The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has commenced in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital. As the host nation, Azerbaijan is also looking to expand its fossil fuel production, positioning itself at the intersection of climate policy and energy expansion.
According to the Financial Times, Azerbaijan’s state oil and gas company SOCAR (State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic) is set to increase production of new fossil fuel sources during the COP29 summit. The summit, a key gathering on global climate change, underscores a paradox for Azerbaijan: pledging climate action while pursuing expanded oil and gas output.
A report by campaign group Global Witness, which analyzed data from independent consultancy Rystad Energy, estimates that 44% of SOCAR’s production will be new oil and gas by 2050—the second-highest proportion among national oil companies globally. This report examined production projections based on both developed and undeveloped fields as well as undiscovered fossil fuel reserves.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), new long-term oil and gas projects conflict with the goal of limiting the average global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—the target set by the Paris Agreement. This expansion aligns Azerbaijan with Europe’s aim to diversify energy sources, especially given the EU’s push to replace Russian gas following the Ukraine conflict.
Meanwhile, SOCAR has increased production in recent years as Europe seeks to replace Russian natural gas with resources from other nations, including Azerbaijan. This has drawn criticism, particularly as Azerbaijan—through Muhtar Babayev, COP29 President and Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources—continues to call for limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
At COP28 last year in Dubai, almost 200 nations committed to phasing out fossil fuels by mid-century. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan has signed multiple oil and gas deals since securing COP29 hosting rights, including SOCAR’s first international investment in upstream oil and gas—a $468 million stake in UAE gas projects.
“Azerbaijan is Europe’s strategic supplier of natural gas and is expanding capacity to meet European energy demands after the 2022 supply disruptions,” a COP29 spokesperson stated. Additionally, Azerbaijan is “expanding its renewable energy exports to serve the region and European markets,” he added. SOCAR did not respond to requests for comment.
Azerbaijan’s COP presidency has sparked criticism, echoing concerns raised during the UAE’s COP28 role. Richard Kinley, former executive secretary of the UN climate panel, expressed disappointment: “It is deeply disturbing that they can’t even seem to draw a ‘sanitary cordon’ around the COP presidency to prevent fossil fuel interests from undermining its purpose.”
Danish Climate Minister Lars Aagaard—attending COP29—remarked that Azerbaijan’s energy strategy also includes renewable energy initiatives, with Ørsted, a prominent wind energy company, present at the summit. However, European diplomats told the Financial Times that Azerbaijani officials have raised gas deal discussions alongside climate negotiations, mainly in relation to replacing Russian gas supplies transiting through Ukraine, with this contract ending soon.
According to Bloomberg, companies in Hungary and Slovakia are finalizing a deal with Azerbaijan to substitute gas from the Ukrainian pipeline. Energy analysts have cautioned that this agreement could mask continued Russian gas flows. Additionally, a recent report from Chatham House highlighted Azerbaijan’s strategy to secure long-term European gas supply agreements.
“By positioning itself at the heart of the multilateral climate process, the Azerbaijani government may seek to shape the global energy transition dialogue to ensure its oil and gas reserves remain profitable as long as possible,” the report suggests.
