The Netanyahu government, criticized for losing its deterrence due to anti-government protests and the normalization process with Iran, aims with the bombing of Gaza to improve its “image” and revive its coalition on the verge of disintegration before the critical budget vote.
Tensions are escalating following Israel’s airstrikes targeting three leaders of the Islamic Jihad Movement. Rockets are being fired from Gaza in response to Israeli attacks. Truce talks have not yet yielded a positive result. why did the Israeli government launch these attacks, which have lasted for two days and bring the risk of all-out war?
On Tuesday, Israel killed three prominent leaders of the Al-Quds Brigades, the military wing of the Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, along with their families. The Israeli military attacks on the Gaza Strip under blockade killed fifteen people, including children, and wounded 22 others. Islamic Jihad has threatened to target the Jewish settlement of Dotan in the occupied West Bank as retaliation for the assault. While the Israeli army continues attacking the Gaza Strip, Palestinian groups have been reacting to these attacks with rocket fire. The number of people killed in the Israeli attacks increased to 25, while 76 people were injured. In a statement made by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), it was stated that 333 of the 469 rockets launched from Gaza crossed into Israel and 107 of them fell short in the Gaza Strip. No information was shared about the remaining 29 rockets. It was reported that the air defense system intercepted 153 rockets, while some rockets hit settlements and caused material damage.
Targeted by Israeli attacks, the Islamic Jihad announced that if Israel continues to bomb houses in the region, retaliatory attacks will be organized in Tel Aviv and the interior of Israel. For its part, Hamas said that the rockets fired from the Gaza Strip into Israel were part of the resistance forces’ unified response to the Israeli attacks. In a written statement, Hamas spokesperson Abdullatif al-Qanoo said, “The joint attacks organized by the resistance forces are part of the process of responding to the massacre carried out by the occupation forces.” Emphasizing that Israel is responsible for the repercussions of its escalating attacks against the Palestinian people, Kanoo said that Israel will pay for its actions.
Why now?
The process that led Israel to these reckless attacks was triggered in early May. Following the death of Palestinian prisoner Khader Adnan on May 2 after 87 days of hunger strike in prison, more than 30 rockets targeting Israel were fired from the Gaza Strip. Israel retaliated by bombing Gaza. One Palestinian was killed and 5 Palestinians were injured in the attacks of Israeli warplanes. Immediately after the airstrikes, a truce was reached between Israel and armed groups in the Gaza Strip on May 3. Reached in one day, the ceasefire lit the criticism that “Israel has no deterrence” already existed in the country shaken by domestic political debates.
The argument that the nationwide protests over the Netanyahu-led government’s judicial reform emboldened Israel’s “enemies” was a critique that had been voiced since the anti-government protests began.
Moreover, Israel’s “sworn enemy” Iran’s normalization process with potential allies of Tel Aviv and the progress it has made in its nuclear program have set alarm bells ringing. Having been criticized for bringing the country to the brink of civil war as the “enemy” continued its advance, Netanyahu announced a ceasefire within 24 hours of the tension in early May, prompting criticism not only from the opposition but also from within the government and even from his own Likud party.
“In order to restore deterrence, we should have woken up this morning and heard how many terrorists were eliminated tonight in attacks,” Likud MP Danny Danon said on Twitter. Almog Cohen, a member of the far-right Israeli Jewish Power party, also posted on social media, “The excuses are over. Now is the time to strike hard at those who seek to harm us.” The Jewish Power Party, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, announced a boycott of the Israeli parliament sessions.
‘Israel’s deterrence capacity has eroded’
In an analysis published in early May, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), which reflects the views of Israel’s military bureaucracy, stated that “These operations against Israel, coupled with a series of prior incidents, have combined to erode Israel’s deterrence capabilities vis-à-vis Hezbollah, which is working tirelessly to improve the rules of the game within the framework of the deterrence equation that has evolved in the aftermath of the Second Lebanon War.” The following as indicators of this erosion is listed:
- Hezbollah’s claim that over the past two years, its activities have forced Israel to reduce its operations in Lebanese airspace
- Hezbollah operatives expanding their presence at observation posts along the border with Israel
- Clashes with Israeli forces along the border
- The signing of the maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon in October 2022, which Nasrallah claimed was a victory for Hezbollah
The analysis noted that Hezbollah – like the other members of the axis – sees the internal Israeli dispute over the constitutional crisis and the widespread protests against the Israeli government, as an expression of Israel’s inherent weakness, and that “the false narrative that Nasrallah has spun, especially over the past 12 months and that has come to the fore in his speeches, is, it seems, the reason for the excessive daring that he has displayed during recent events.”
The analysis offered the following thoughts on what Israel should do: “In any case, recent events indicate that Israel’s deterrence vis-à-vis Hezbollah and its partners in the axis of resistance is eroding. Under these circumstances, Israel’s political leadership must launch a deep and thorough discussion with the security establishment in order to formulate a strategy for bolstering deterrence with Hezbollah, which is the vanguard of the broader axis, and which currently poses the greatest conventional threat to Israeli security. It appears that a military operation against Hezbollah is necessary to make it absolutely clear to the organization that it will be made to pay a heavy price for continued provocation and to prevent a situation in which terror attacks from Lebanon, including rocket fire by Hamas, become routine. Israel faces a complex challenge: how to bolster its deterrence against Hezbollah and Hamas, without escalating the situation and risking all-out war. Israel has the scope to operate, and it must select its preferred course of action and timing – and must ready itself for potential ramifications.”
A move to save the coalition
Criticism from the opposition about the erosion of deterrence is an important reason for these latest attacks, but more critical for Netanyahu is the intra-coalition dispute. In particular, the announcement by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir that he will boycott parliamentary sessions due to the ceasefire is extremely significant since Netanyahu has to get the 2023-2024 budget passed by the end of this month. If the budget is not ratified by May 29, the government will automatically fall and early elections will be called. Therefore, Ben-Gvir’s announcement to boycott the parliamentary sessions is not a trump card that Netanyahu can ignore. And Ben-Gvir is not the only coalition partner using the budget vote as leverage. United Torah Judaism is pushing the government to take steps to exempt Haredis from conscription until the end of this month. The widespread attacks on Gaza have ended Ben-Gvir’s boycott of the Knesset, while also causing other far-right coalition partners to soften their demands and rally around Netanyahu against the enemy. In sum, ahead of the crucial budget vote, Netanyahu has repaired the cracks in his coalition thanks to the Gaza attacks.
Zvi Bar’el, a columnist for the left-wing Haaretz newspaper, one of Israel’s long-established publications, makes this observation in an article: “The deaths in Gaza brought Israel’s coalition back to life.”
An editorial in the same newspaper made the same observation. “The Gaza assassinations were all about Israeli politics,” the editorial reads, “…the government was severely criticized by some of the public and many politicians for its ‘weak response,’ ‘disgraceful policy of containment’ and failure to crush the ‘terrorist infrastructure’ when it had a chance. A right-wing government that tends toward extremes was suddenly seen as wretched and spineless, weaker than the “leftist” government that preceded it. The one who was the fastest to understand how serious the damage was to the government’s image was one of its most senior figures, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. He not only demanded that he be part of the security deliberations that he has not been invited to but also that the government act with more aggression to dispense with the awful policy of ‘restraint’ and strike the leaders of terror organizations.”
“Ben-Gvir was not content with using inflammatory rhetoric. He boycotted the cabinet and Knesset, threatening the coalition’s integrity and even risking the collapse of the government altogether, just as the Knesset vote on the budget is approaching. Ben-Gvir’s threats made it clear to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the last ‘round’ of fighting was in need of a correction. Accordingly, the Israel Defense Forces and the Shin Bet security service were asked to come up with some proposals, which resulted in a decision to assassinate three top Islamic Jihad officials.”
Hamas not a direct target
The fact that Israel has refrained from directly targeting Hamas reveals that it does not want an all-out war. Indeed, in his national address today, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu underscored the intensive attacks on Islamic Jihad targets in Gaza. However, he also said that the “military campaign is not over” and that they are continuing to attack Gaza vigorously. Netanyahu said that “new technological advances, operational skills and initiative have created a new balance” and that “they will choose when and where to attack the terrorists, and they have the priority to choose.”
Talks deadlocked
On the other hand, it was stated that the truce talks between Israel and Palestinian have stalled. According to AA, a Palestinian source close to the talks between Israeli and the Palestinian groups said that the Palestinian side asked Israel to stop its “assassination policy”, which Tel Aviv rejected. The source added that ceasefire talks continue through Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations (UN).
