Terrorist attacks last month, one in Moscow and another a few days later in Pakistan that killed five Chinese workers, have raised alarm bells in Russia and China, key members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a Eurasian security bloc.
With China set to chair the SCO from July, analysts say they expect Beijing to focus more on counter-terrorism in the region and encourage greater security cooperation among member states.
Analysts also believe the attacks will bring Russia and China closer together as they seek to eliminate foreign forces they believe are trying to destabilise the region.
Ian Hall, professor of international relations at Griffith University in Brisbane, Australia, told the South China Morning Post that while counter-terrorism has always been high on the SCO’s agenda, the recent attacks are likely to “refocus attention on this issue”.
Counter-terrorism to top agenda
Founded in 2001 by China, Russia and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to reduce border tensions, the SCO has traditionally focused on fighting the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism and extremism.
As the group has expanded to include India, Pakistan and, most recently, Iran, its scope has broadened to include issues such as economic cooperation.
Gunmen opened fire on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, killing at least 140 people in the deadliest attack in Russia for two decades.
Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to punish those behind the attack, which was claimed by the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K), an Afghanistan-based branch of Daesh.
Less than a week later, a suicide bomber killed five Chinese workers in northwestern Pakistan, the latest in a series of terrorist attacks in the South Asian country apparently targeting Chinese interests. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.
Russia, Pakistan and Iran, all members of the SCO, have suffered attacks organised by ISIL-H within their borders.
“Officially, counter-terrorism will be the main theme of the SCO,” said David Arase, professor of international politics at the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre for Chinese and American Studies.
“If an actor outside Central Asia, such as Russia, is attacked, China and its interests in Central Asia may also be targeted,” he told the Post: “ISIS-H represents the ‘three evils’ – terrorism, separatism and religious extremism – that are China’s nightmare because it wants an Islamic state under radical theocratic rule.”
In the wake of the two attacks in Russia and Pakistan, the bloc may seek to strengthen counter-terrorism cooperation through joint training exercises or increased intelligence sharing and coordination against armed groups such as ISIL-H, Arase said.
But it can be difficult to decide who does what within the organisation in an “environment of conflicting interests and mistrust”, Arase said, adding that tensions between some member states have increased.
India and China, for example, remain at odds over conflicting border claims and Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure projects. India’s relationship with Pakistan also remains strained.
Thomas Wilkins, Associate Professor at the University of Sydney, agreed that the fight against terrorism would be a “central theme” of the SCO and a “prominent” item on its agenda.
He said the terrorist attack in Russia ticked the boxes of terrorism and religious extremism, two of the “three evils” the SCO was established to combat.
Wilkins said the SCO already had a regional counter-terrorism structure for sharing information, and resources had been mobilised in response to the Moscow attacks.
Rapprochement within the bloc against the West could increase
In addition to an SCO response, the recent terrorist attacks could bring countries within the bloc closer together against actions they believe are backed by the West, analysts say.
Beijing and Moscow may call on SCO to cooperate against terrorism
Russian officials blamed not only Ukraine but also the West for last month’s terrorist attack in Moscow, claiming that US and British intelligence had helped Ukraine organise the attack.
“They are trying to make us believe that the terrorist attack was not carried out by the Kiev regime, but by supporters of radical Islamic ideology, possibly members of the Afghan branch [of the Islamic State],” Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said last month: “This is evidenced by the fact that as soon as the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall was reported, the West began to insist that Ukraine was not involved in the crime.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping has also repeatedly called on SCO countries to work together to prevent foreign powers from destabilising their countries by fomenting unrest.
“We must be extremely vigilant against foreign powers provoking a ‘new Cold War’ and creating conflicts in the region, and resolutely oppose any interference in any country’s internal affairs and staging a ‘colour revolution’ for any reason,” he said last year.
Experts say the SCO, which was created to resolve border disputes, has evolved into a Moscow- and Beijing-led organisation that provides security governance in Central Asia, where the threat of terrorism exists and could spill over into Russia and China.Beyond its institutional functions, the SCO also serves to keep Western powers such as the US out of Central Asia and to provide a common platform against “Western hegemony”.”Since its continuous expansion, it has formed a geopolitical bloc encompassing most of Eastern Eurasia, in contrast to the NATO bloc of Western Eurasia,” says Thomas Wilkins. The SCO was created in part to prevent “colour revolutions”, Wilkins said, adding that members continue to work closely to minimise such possibilities.
Li Lifan, head of the SCO Centre at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said a convention signed by member states in 2017 to combat extremism showed a “firm determination” to fight the “three evils”, adding that the SCO will help deepen cooperation between countries.
“Today, the global security situation is complex and extremist ideas are constantly spreading. Terrorist activities and regional wars have formed a ‘double-active era’, posing serious challenges to regional national security and people’s safety of life and property,” Li said, adding that after assuming the chairmanship, China will not only strengthen regional anti-terrorism cooperation, but also tackle transnational organised crime and modern technology crime to “safeguard regional and even global peace and stability”.
