On 28 September, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) claimed to have killed Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah during a raid on the armed group’s headquarters in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah confirmed this a few hours later. Immediately afterwards, Iran’s official media reported that the deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Abbas Nilforoushan, had also been killed in the ongoing Israeli air strikes on Lebanon. The deaths of Nasrallah and Nilfruzan are a turning point in the disastrous consequences for Hezbollah forces and the IRGC of Israel’s “Northern Offensive” offensive, which lasted for several days, and in Israel’s adventurous challenge to the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance”. It is a serious test of the ability of the “Axis of Resistance” to develop a climate.
Described by Israel as a central element of the “Iranian axis” and by Western scholars as the “beating heart of Hezbollah”, the 64-year-old Nasrallah is the most important non-state actor and regional player who has led the organisation for 32 years and transformed it into a well-armed, political and cross-border fighting force, non-state actors and regional players. Some commentators have even claimed that Nasrallah has dedicated his entire family to Hezbollah’s cause and resistance against Israel, that two of his sisters married senior Hezbollah officials, that his eldest son died at the hands of Israel and his body was confiscated, and that a daughter was buried with him this time.
Nasrallah has performed at least four “miracles” in the Middle East political arena: By resisting and harassing Israel, he enabled Hezbollah to force Israel to end its 18-year illegal occupation of southern Lebanon in May 2000, essentially realising the unity of the country’s sovereignty and territory; only parts of the territory, such as the Shab’a farms, remained under Israeli control as part of the Golan Heights. In 2006, he commanded the Hezbollah forces that inflicted heavy losses on the Israeli army in the mountain warfare in southern Lebanon, forcing the latter to achieve a ceasefire. After 2011, he facilitated Hezbollah’s first overseas operation, helped Damascus in its efforts to crush the subversive intentions of the West and the Arab League, and was a key force in the “Russia+Shia Arc” that contributed to the defeat of ISIS. He has been on Israel’s “death list” since 1992, but as a “master of survival” he has managed to escape death for a third of a century.
However, Nasrallah was eventually hunted down and liquidated by Israel. Coming on the heels of the world-shaking wave of “pager wars” and “radio wars” that Israeli intelligence successfully conducted against Hezbollah cadres, this result shows that Israel has finally gained the upper hand in the intelligence war, despite the fact that Hezbollah had the best of everything possible and Nasrallah’s whereabouts were never clear. Israel has achieved superiority in the intelligence war, in cyber and technological warfare, and even in conventional air strikes and counter-air strikes. This fact alone shows that Israel, as a military, technological and scientific powerhouse, has overwhelming superiority over Hezbollah, the militia of a less developed country, and has achieved military superiority by avoiding all-out war and repeating the same mistakes in ground attacks.
According to Israeli media reports, the Israeli Air Force bombing of the Hezbollah headquarters and the killing of Nasrallah was personally approved by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York. This alone shows that Israeli military intelligence did not lack the opportunity and capability to physically eliminate Nasrallah, but rather had to choose the most opportune time and think in order to achieve the best results.
The timing of Nasrallah’s elimination, at a moment of “summit” when Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah is entering a heated phase and world leaders are gathered at the United Nations and Netanyahu is directly in front of the largest and most influential audience, is not only a “show-off” for Israel’s superior intelligence and operational capability, but also a double challenge to the international community and the “axis of resistance”: To justify and defend Israel’s continuation of the war, disregarding the fact that it is wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes and condemned by the international community for its “belligerence and bloodthirstiness”.
In his speech on the 27th, Netanyahu emphasised: “I had not planned to come here this year; my country is struggling to survive. However, after hearing the lies and slander against my country from many speakers on this podium, I decided to come here to present the facts.” At the beginning of his speech, applause erupted from the pro-Israel group in the hall, while more participants left the hall in protest.
Netanyahu singled out the United Nations and Lebanon as two areas of interaction, telling Iran and the “axis of resistance” that Israel is determined to fight to the end and will not accept a ceasefire in Gaza if its enemies abandon their multi-front offensive. In his speech, he accused the Iranian-led forces of encircling Israel on seven fronts and of being behind many of the problems in the region. Netanyahu also threatened Iran, saying that “there is no place in Iran that Israel’s long arm cannot reach, and this applies to the entire Middle East.”
A senior Israeli official told the British Daily Telegraph that the purpose of Netanyahu’s visit to the General Assembly was to soften the blow of Israel’s air strike on Hezbollah headquarters. Observers believe that Netanyahu’s approval of the major military operation during the UN General Assembly session was intended to show the international community that Israel is strong enough to challenge the Iran-led “axis of resistance”.
The Israeli bombing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran at the end of July was deliberately timed to coincide with the inauguration of Iran’s new president, in order to humiliate and challenge the Iranian authorities. Hamas lacked the strength to avenge Haniyeh’s death, Iran lacked the motivation to repay its blood debt to its Palestinian partners, and Hezbollah avenged Haniyeh’s death and that of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shoukour, who was killed by the Israeli army at almost the same time, by stepping up its attacks against Israel. In a sense, Iran’s restraint and hesitation in the aftermath of the Tehran assassination showed Israel that it has no intention of escalating the conflict and expanding the cycle of retaliation, but Israel has no intention of showing weakness and blaming Iran for Hezbollah’s intensified attacks.
Indeed, the death of the Deputy Commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Abbas Nilforushan, on the battlefield in Lebanon shows the reality of Iran’s ties with Hezbollah and that Israel does not care whether Iran retaliates or not. Israel’s contempt for the “axis of resistance” in general, and for Iran in particular, is even more open this time, and Iran is cornered: Instead of avenging the death of its long-time ally Nasrallah, Iran must pay a blood debt to its own general Abbas Nilforushan. If nothing is done, Iran’s influence and appeal in the “axis of resistance” camp will be seriously weakened and it will even be seen as a “paper tiger” in the geopolitical game of the entire Middle East.
Following the deaths of Nasrallah and Nilforushan, various media outlets, citing alleged Iranian officials, reported that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei had been transferred to a safe location inside the country and that security measures had been tightened. Such reports are illogical and irrational, and more resemble an information and public opinion war created by Israel to damage Iran’s image. This is because, at least for the time being, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei will not be targeted by Israel for removal. At Haniyeh’s funeral on 1 August, Khamenei was reported to have looked up at the sky and feared a drone attack. All these so-called reports denigrating the Iranian leader are in fact designed to create panic and probe Iran’s lower limit in the face of Israel’s constant humiliation.
In any case, Nasrallah’s death is a severe blow to the Lebanese Hezbollah, which is struggling to choose and train a new leader, and it is doubtful who will be able to openly lead the battered Hezbollah and its armed forces in this period of crisis. Nilforushan’s death is a blow to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, but does Iran have the courage to attack US targets with missiles, as it did after the assassination of Soleimani? Will it symbolically attack Israel with missiles and drones, as it did after the bombing of its diplomatic offices in Syria?
If Iran fulfils its previous promises of revenge and retaliates in addition to the deaths of Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforushan, this will inevitably trigger an escalation of direct conflict with Israel. If Iran continues to make verbal threats, its geopolitical credibility will be severely undermined, which will mark a turning point for the “Axis of Resistance”: A coalition that is no match for Israel and, in particular, a new era in which the United States and other Western countries are determined to defend Israel’s security, while Arab countries generally remain on the sidelines.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has not changed, the Lebanese-Israeli conflict has not changed, the Syrian-Israeli conflict has not changed and even the Iranian-Israeli conflict has not changed in essence, but the world has changed and the Middle East has changed.
Prof Ma is Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University (Hangzhou). He specialises in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle East politics. He worked for many years as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine and Iraq.
