From the experience of the Sino-Soviet adventure, the US-led Western bloc expects China to leave Russia. The view towards China is ‘schizophrenic,’ while the proxy war against Russia continues. So, how should we interpret the relationship between China and Russia?
A troubled outlook prevails in the 30-year hegemony of the USA, which has shaken the international relations system as a ‘superpower,’ with invasions, wars, and ‘colorful coups.’ The Ukraine war bolstered Washington’s control over Europe, but the ‘disobedient front’ became visible. One of the most pressing concerns in this regard is the possibility of creating new alternatives and the ties between the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China.
We are witnessing an overt challenge to the US dominance that was portrayed as a ‘rules-based’ rather than referring to ‘UN-based international law,’ which the States has itself violated. It marks a watershed moment, the Russian military’s reaction to the offensive started through Ukraine by the US, intentionally destroying the Minsk accord endorsed by the UN Security Council (UNSC). Compared to 9/11 and the financial crisis in 2008, its impact in the new century is far more significant. In this regard, 2022 may be likened to 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, actual socialism lost ground against Western capitalism, and the West ultimately triumphed in the Cold War.
Russia’s special military operation, which began on February 24, 2022, is rapidly approaching the end of its first year after the rejection of two proposals regarding the security architecture to the United States and NATO in December 2021. The question is still on all minds whether the Sino-Soviet adventure of the 1960s would be repeated in the face of the threat posed on the political, economic, and military fronts.
‘GREAT POWER COMPETITION, EXPECTATION TO ABANDON RUSSIA’
In 2022, Western politicians and public opinion were preoccupied with the prospect of China ‘abandoning’ Russia. The out-of-context discourses even presented the border issues between Russia and China settled in the early 2000s as a ‘sign of separation.’
In the meantime, the Biden administration maintained the demands on the Chinese leadership to turn its back to Moscow, along with threats of ‘severe costs.’ Obviously ironic. Taking up the economic battle started by the Republican Trump administration against China in the United States, the Biden administration has resorted to the tactic of ‘great power competition’ since early January 2020. Biden expanded the economic front with his move to ban China from advanced semiconductors. Attempting to trivialize the ‘one-China’ policy, he made a point of the ideological battle, which centered on the issue of ‘human rights and democracy’ over the claims of ‘authoritarianism’ ascribing to Russia and China.
The motto ‘not to clash with two great powers, Russia and China at the same time’ Western political and scholarly circles often repeat in terms of ‘avoidance’ is either out of date or at a knife edge. Utilizing Ukraine as a proxy for a military offensive against Russia, the Biden administration tested the Chinese leadership over Taiwan in 2022. The tension rose in August when former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a ‘pirate’ landing in Taiwan. In reality, the meeting between US Vice President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Bali, Indonesia, on November 14 during the G-20 summit did not seem to ease tensions between the two countries.
SCHIZOPHRENIC APPEARANCE
There is a deep irony in the duality of Western attitudes against China, which has now expanded throughout Europe thanks to the United States. The NATO-disguised allies, on the one hand, face military competition from China. On the other hand, the obligation of maintaining economic ties with China becomes a pain in the neck. The European elite is voicing the rhetoric of ‘getting rid of the dependency on China after Russia.’ In the collective West, the strategies of ‘the turn will come to China when Russia is done’ are being formulated. All are accompanied by demands from the Chinese leadership to abandon Russia. So to speak, there is a ‘schizophrenic’ appearance here.
Last week, the Financial Times had a headline reading, ‘China will reestablish its ties with the West and move away from Russia.’ The newspaper prophesied that under Xi’s leadership, China’s strategy to exit Covid-19 would be to ‘reset the economy and win back friends.’ This prophecy predicts that ‘Russia will lose the war in Ukraine.’ Nobody has yet attempted to estimate the scale of the potential breakdown in the Western alliance if this prediction does not come true. However, the naivety in expecting China to simply ignore Western hostility against Russia on all fronts (military, economic, ideological/cultural) is stunning.
Only by disregarding Beijing’s deeds and rhetoric can the West expect these from China. In the turbulent international climate of 2022, it is possible to interpret the relations between Russia and China, which completed the 20th Congress by extending Xi Jinping’s term of office as a ‘stable development’ in the mildest sense. Perhaps taking a peek at it might help.
‘THE BEGINNING AND END OF 2022 IN RUSSIA-CHINA RELATIONS’
In the wake of the pandemic, during the opening ceremony of the 24th Winter Olympic Games in Beijing, Russian and Chinese leaders had their first meeting in 2022. Chinese President Xi Jinping received Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing. A joint statement was released on February 4, emphasizing that there were ‘no limits to Sino-Russian cooperation.’ Concerns over the United States’ position on the Asia-Pacific Strategy, the AUKUS partnership, and Ukraine were mentioned in the statement.
Russia’s initiative on security guarantees put forward to the United States and NATO before the Ukraine crisis was supported by China in the statement. The emphasis was on ’a just world with the central coordinating role of the United Nations in international affairs, advancing multipolarity and promoting the democratization of international relations.’ Reiterating that ‘strengthening of bilateral strategic cooperation is not aimed against third countries,’ the statement called on ‘to avoid NATO’s enlargement and steps against the sovereignty, security, and interests of other countries, and colorful coups and interferences in internal affairs.’
Natural gas and oil agreements between the energy companies of the two countries (Gazprom and CNPC) and the decision to increase the use of reciprocal national currencies in economic and commercial terms were tangible results.
Xi and Putin’s second face-to-face meeting took place at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand in September 2022, amid an accelerating Ukrainian conflict after the West made Kyiv withdraw its written concessions in Istanbul at the end of March. China adopted a ‘neutral’ stance when Russia’s military operation started, and Beijing avoided joining the rest of the UN Security Council in condemning Russia. The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not leave out the historical context of the Ukraine crisis (the US-backed 2014 coup in Kyiv and the ignited civil war). Putin, therefore, thanked Xi for his ‘balanced’ stand on Ukraine. The Russian leader condemned the provocations in Taiwan carried out by the US through Pelosi in the month of August. While the Western media outlets were cherry-picking the contextless sentences as ‘Xi’s criticism of Putin,’ the Chinese leader expressed to the Russian president, whom he called ‘my old friend,’ his wishes to ‘work with Russia to assume the role of great powers and to instill stability and positive energy in a chaotic world.’
On December 21, Chinese President Xi Jinping personally received Russian Security Council Vice President Dmitry Medvedev on an unexpected visit to Beijing to deliver Putin’s message.
At the end of 2022, the Chinese and Russian presidents had a video call on December 30 that has now become a ‘tradition.’ Putin highlighted the record high growth rates in mutual trade, building up a partnership in all areas, and strengthening the defense and military technology cooperation despite patent blackmail on the part of certain Western countries.
“Moscow and Beijing’s coordination on the international arena serves to create a fair world order based on international law,” said Putin and underlined, “We share the same views on the causes, course, and logic of the ongoing transformation of the global geopolitical landscape.” He also stated, “In the face of unprecedented pressure and provocations from the West, we defend our principled positions and protect not only our own interests but also the interests of all those who stand for a truly democratic world order and the right of countries to freely determine their destiny.”
President Xi emphasized that ‘the world has now come to another historical crossroads.’ The Chinese leader described two paths before them: “To revert to a Cold War mentality, provoke division and antagonism, and stoke confrontation between blocs, or to act out of the common good of humanity to promote equality, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation.” “The tug of war between these two trends is testing the wisdom of statesmen in major countries as well as the reason of the entire humanity,” he underlined and said, “China stands ready to join hands with Russia and all other progressive forces around the world to reject any protectionism and bullying and uphold international justice.” He importantly noted that ‘Russia has never refused to resolve the conflict through diplomatic negotiations, and China commends that.’
‘BEYOND THE RHETORIC’
The absence of these emphases in Western media is telling. What cannot be overlooked is that China has not ‘been tamed.’ China’s increased energy imports have been crucial in helping Russia economically decouple from Western pressure. The goal of mutual trade in 2024 is $200 billion.
In military terms, the two countries continued joint exercises. The naval exercises of Russia and China and joint patrol flights in the Pacific region garnered attention in 2022. After the air patrol, the Russian T-95 and the Chinese Xian H-6 strategic bombers landed on each other’s soil.
The common ground that has united China and Russia over the last two decades is plain to see. The two countries jointly condemned NATO’s use of force in Yugoslavia and the invasion of Iraq. After the United States’ withdrawal from the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear deal, they thwarted UN sanctions. When the West criticized Russia’s interference in Ukraine in 2022, and when the UN General Assembly nullified the referendum that returned Crimea to the Russian Federation at the start of the coup and civil war in Ukraine in 2014, China took a different approach from the West when Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in 2022 was condemned as well as when the UN General Assembly nullified the referendum that returned Crimea to the Russian Federation at the start of the coup and civil war in Ukraine in 2014. China has made it clear that it is aware of the historical and political background of the crisis in Ukraine, which has its roots in the Soviet era.
The Russian Federation, on the other hand, blames the US for the tension in Asia since the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. Moscow is against the US policies of Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang to sow discord in China. It opposes the policies of penetrating the East and South China seas.
The two countries took steps to broaden the scope of the SCO and BRICS in 2022. A participant member in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which provides an alternative to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, Russia looks willing to coordinate Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative with the Eurasian Economic Cooperation.
‘DIPLOMATIC REPRIMAND AGAINST ROCK HEALTH’
Promoted at the 20th Congress of the CCP, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi described relations with Russia in 2022 as ‘rock-solid,’ emphasizing that ‘China and Russia have firmly supported each other in upholding respective core interests.’ Yi’s ‘reprimanding’ rhetoric about US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken, who could not keep the diplomatic tone with China, cannot be overlooked. The Chinese readouts of Wang’s phone diplomacy with Blinken reflect criticisms of ‘unilateral bullying’ towards the imperativeness of the American counterpart on Ukraine. Wang’s warnings that China’s diplomacy cannot be steered in this manner are remarkable.
On Blinken’s next visit to Beijing at the start of February, he will meet with Qin Gang, newly appointed to the head of the Chinese Foreign Ministry from the US embassy. In a context where the Taiwan provocation came on the top of Washington’s pact strategy in ‘the Indo-Pacific’ with AUKUS in 2021 and the US is increasingly militarizing Japan in the region, it is unlikely to anticipate different consequences. Repeating that ‘East Asia could be the next Ukraine,’ Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s call for the West to ‘unite against China’ is impossible to imagine anything but the US ‘adjustment.’ The fact that Biden, when receiving PM Kishida, complained about ‘actions inconsistent with the rules-based international order by China’ convinced the Chinese government that boundaries would not limit the unchecked confrontation Russia faced in Ukraine.
In the Cold War, Sino-Soviet relations fell victim to ideological polarization. Today’s Russo-Chinese relations are taking shape under tensions escalating due to the declining hegemony of Western neo-colonialism. It can be regarded as a model based on multilateralism respecting sovereignties. There seems to be no tough rivalry in mutual relations and no great competition in production and technology. The Russian Federation clearly did not rely on China when it started the Ukraine war. It is impossible for China not to see the next target would be Beijing if NATO brought Russia down in its proxy war in Ukraine.
