China’s exports to the U.S. increased by 8% year-on-year in November, significantly surpassing the 3.3% growth rate recorded over the first ten months of the year. Analysts suggest that companies may have front-loaded orders in anticipation of potential tariff measures by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
Overall, China’s overseas shipments grew for the eighth consecutive month, rising by 6.7% year-on-year in dollar terms, according to data released by the country’s customs office on Tuesday. However, this figure was below October’s 12.7% increase and the 8.5% growth forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.
Dollar-denominated imports fell by 3.9% year-on-year in November, a steeper drop compared to the 2.3% decline in October and significantly below the 0.3% growth forecast in the Reuters poll. This marked the largest decline since February, highlighting challenges in boosting domestic demand.
China’s trade surplus widened to $97.44 billion in November, compared to $95.72 billion in October.
President-elect Trump, who pledged during his campaign to impose tariffs of up to 60% on all imports from China, announced a 10% tariff on Chinese goods upon taking office in January. He linked the move to efforts to stop the flow of illegal drugs into the U.S. This prompted some American companies to stockpile Chinese goods to mitigate potential disruptions.
Beijing’s decision to reduce or eliminate export tax cuts for 268 products—including copper, aluminum, and lithium-ion batteries—may have further contributed to increased shipments. For example, exports of aluminum products surged by 40% in November.
Despite November’s modest growth, U.K.-based Capital Economics predicts that China’s export boom will persist due to gains in global market share and the weak yuan. “While U.S. tariffs may reduce export volume by around 3%, the impact might not be felt until mid-next year,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics. “In the short term, tariffs may even stimulate exports as U.S. firms accelerate orders in anticipation.”
China’s economy remains under sustained deflationary pressure, with consumer inflation falling to a five-month low in November, according to official data released on Monday.
Since September, the central government has introduced a series of measures to stabilize the property market and meet its annual growth target of approximately 5%. These include a 10 trillion yuan program aimed at resolving local government debt, though the impact of these measures has yet to materialize fully.
On Monday, the Politburo, China’s top decision-making body, called for a “more proactive fiscal policy and moderately accommodative monetary policy” in 2025. It also emphasized the need to “vigorously boost consumption” while stabilizing property and stock markets.
The annual Central Economic Work Conference, a key event shaping the country’s medium-term economic strategy, is expected to convene this Wednesday, although no official date has been announced.
