Chinese academy discusses Syria

On 11 December, the Shanghai University, Institute of International Studies and the Center for Turkish Studies held a forum to discuss developments in Syria and the Middle East.

The forum discussed the changing situation in Syria and its impact on the balance of power in the region, the role of actors such as Türkiye, and the impact of Trump’s return to the White House on the political situation in the region.

Academics, researchers and students from different disciplines from more than 10 universities attended the forum.

Professor Guo Changgang, a researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and one of the university’s leading global experts, delivered the opening speech of the forum. Professor Guo emphasised that an important mission of regional studies is to play the role of a think tank. In this context, a special discussion session entitled “Theory and Practice of Regional Country Studies” was organised at the meeting. This session was not limited to the basic concepts of regional country studies, but instead focused on the specific “practice” and “case” analyses of this field.

Professor Guo pointed out that Donald Trump’s policy towards Türkiye in his first term directly led to the collapse of the Turkish Lira, and Türkiye is still unable to get out of this financial and economic quagmire. He also emphasised that Trump’s China policy in his first term triggered a trade war and China is still facing sanctions from the Biden administration. Therefore, he emphasised that Trump’s return to power would create great uncertainty for both China and Türkiye. Therefore, in the context of Trump’s second term, “it is particularly necessary to discuss China-Türkiye relations and Türkiye’s diplomatic issues,” he said.

The forum also included a round table discussion on the current situation in Syria and Türkiye for about 1.5 hours.

In this section, the speakers emphasised that the sudden changes in Syria were caused by three main factors:

1. Economic factors: Bashar al-Assad’s government faced Western sanctions and embargoes, while reduced economic aid from Russia and Iran led to economic crises and rapidly rising prices, allowing rebel forces to advance without effective resistance.
2. External factors: Iran, Russia and Hezbollah’s “foreign aid” to the Syrian government has decreased, while subversive interventions by actors such as Türkiye, the US, Israel and Ukraine have increased.
3. Military factors: Syrian government forces have undertaken military reforms and reduced the number of low-level officers. In response, the rebels gained experience in fighting abroad and started to use new tactics with drones.

Predictions that Syria will drill

Academics predict that the political transition in Syria will be challenging. Discussions on the establishment of a secular or religious state, a republic or a federal structure, and issues such as an Arab-led structure or Kurdish autonomy could lead to new tensions over power-sharing between Sunnis, Alawites and Kurds.

It was also pointed out that there is a risk of a new conflict in Syria. The danger of conflicts both between the organisations themselves and between Türkiye and Kurdish organisations was pointed out.

On the other hand, it was stated that Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Israel, based on their strategic interests, may actively cooperate with HTS, which overthrew the government of Bashar al-Assad.

Conflicts between the US and Russia, Russia and Turkey, Iran and Israel, Iran and Israel, Türkiye and the Gulf Arab states, and tensions between secularism and religion, terrorism and counter-terrorism were predicted to continue.

Some academics emphasised that it is uncertain whether Syria will resemble the Iraq or Libya model, but that it could become a new area of competition between the great powers. Others argued that international and regional rivalries have diminished since 2011 and that the Syrian crisis is unlikely to spread beyond the country.

Türkiye’s situation: Big gains or new challenges?

The debate on this topic centred on Türkiye’s role in the changes in Syria. Some noted that the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government made Türkiye a “big winner”. At a time when the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” is in decline and Israel’s negative image is spreading, Türkiye has gained a strategic advantage. It was also noted that the decline in the overall influence of extra-regional powers in the Middle East has also created an advantageous situation for Türkiye

The speakers agreed that China should establish closer relations with Türkiye.

However, some academics argued that despite the gains Türkiye has made, it faces the fear of a “counter-move” and that its problems have only just begun.

The problems Türkiye may face in the future were listed as follows:

• Will it invest more in the reconstruction of Syria, or will it not be able to afford to do so (due to lack of funds) and leave the process alone?
• How will he coordinate relations between Syria and the West?
• How will it address the concerns of other parties?

It was also mentioned that Türkiye might be dragged into a more passive position on the Syrian issue in the future.

Middle East policies under Donald Trump

It was stated that the Middle East will face a new test with the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January.

It was noted that the Middle East policies of the Donald Trump 2.0 era will be influenced by Trump’s general goals based on the “America First” principle, the continuation of the Middle East policies of the 1.0 era and current developments.

While it was emphasised that Trump’s general goal was to revitalise the economy and international position by applying the “America First” principle, it was assessed that in the Middle East, this meant reducing direct military expenditures, but strengthening a strategy against Russia and China, and preventing economic cooperation and high-tech projects.

It was noted that Trump’s “three axes” policy from the 1.0 era is likely to continue: The suppression of forces obstructing US domination, the weakening of actors supporting Iran and the “axis of resistance”, and the fight against the “Islamic State”. Three moves were envisaged in this direction: Support for Israel, rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and furthering the alliance strategy.

While Trump’s pro-Israel bias is expected to end the current conflict cycle quickly and in favour of Israel, it is unlikely to offer a just solution to the Palestinian issue.

As for Iran, a new policy of “maximum pressure”, tougher economic sanctions and possible military threats were foreseen.
Scholars at the meeting noted that Trump’s Middle East policy in the 2.0 era presents both challenges and opportunities for China.

China can strengthen its security and economic ties in a targeted manner, open up new areas, and diplomatically increase its efforts on regional hot topics and play a mediating role.