CIA assesses Iran could withstand US blockade for up to 120 days

The Central Intelligence Agency has assessed that Iran could withstand a US naval blockade for 90 to 120 days, and possibly longer, according to a report by The Washington Post citing four sources.

The assessment concluded that Iran would be able to sustain the current level of pressure for a period before facing more severe economic difficulties, the newspaper reported.

One unnamed US official cited by the Post said the CIA analysis may have underestimated Tehran’s economic resilience.

The official said Iran could create additional economic breathing room if it shifts to rail shipments instead of relying on maritime transport.

Another source cited by the newspaper said Tehran had stored part of its oil supply in tankers and had reduced output at some oil fields in order to preserve production capacity despite pressure on exports.

“The situation in Iran is not as dire as some people portray it,” the source said.

The CIA analysis also found that, despite intense fighting, Tehran has retained a significant portion of its ballistic missile capabilities.

An unnamed official said Iran still possesses roughly 75% of its pre-war missile launcher stockpile and around 70% of its pre-war missile inventory.

The official also said Tehran may have restored nearly all of its underground storage facilities to operational status, repaired some damaged missiles, and completed work on a number of new missiles that had been nearing production before the conflict began.

The same official added that estimates for how quickly Iran could resume large-scale ballistic missile production had also shortened.

Sources cited by the Post said lower-cost drones, rather than missiles, were particularly important for monitoring activity in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the sources, the drones can be manufactured across a wide range of facilities, including small storage sites.

The newspaper said the US intelligence community had assessed in early April that more than half of Iran’s missile launchers remained intact and that Tehran still possessed thousands of drones.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly nevertheless said Iran was losing $500 million a day because of the blockade imposed in the Strait of Hormuz.

“During Operation Epic Rage, Iran suffered a devastating military defeat. Now, because of the US military’s successful blockade of Iranian ports, the Economic Rage Operation is leaving Iran economically breathless and costing it $500 million per day. The Iranian regime knows full well that the current situation is unsustainable. As negotiators work on an agreement, President Trump holds all the cards,” Kelly said.

Dani Tsitrinovich, the former head of the Iran desk at Israeli military intelligence, said even a blockade lasting several months would not force Tehran to make concessions to Washington.

Tsitrinovich said that despite the military successes achieved by the US and Israel, the outcome of the war could still amount to a strategic failure.

“The war, which was reportedly intended to overthrow the regime and eliminate Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, could instead leave the Iranian leadership stronger than before. With sanctions lifted, the regime could gain strength. At the same time, it could retain significant missile capabilities, continue supporting its proxy forces, and most likely preserve uranium enrichment activities on its own territory,” Tsitrinovich said.

After the outbreak of war in Iran, Tehran announced a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz on Feb. 28. Before the escalation, between 15% and 20% of global shipments of oil, condensates and petroleum products, along with more than 30% of global LNG supplies, passed through the strait.

Following unsuccessful talks between the US and Iran on April 11, President Donald Trump announced a blockade targeting Iranian ports. The blockade took effect on April 13.

Al Arabiya television reported on May 7 that the US and Iran had reached an agreement on the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report, the agreement was reached in exchange for easing the terms of the blockade imposed on Iranian ports.