Diplomacy
Cyprus seeks UK guarantees over future use of British bases amid Farage concerns
Cyprus wants to prevent Donald Trump from using British military bases on the island for wartime strike operations and is seeking assurances from the United Kingdom amid concerns over the possibility of Nigel Farage becoming prime minister.
In March, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer declined to allow the use of British bases in Cyprus for US air strikes against Iran. He later permitted their use for what were described as “specific and limited defensive purposes,” including efforts to deter Iranian retaliation.
Both British and Cypriot officials have confirmed concerns that a future UK government led by Farage could take a different approach.
A senior Cypriot diplomatic official told POLITICO that Nicosia plans to raise the issue as soon as the conflict involving Iran has ended.
Speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss security matters, as did others quoted in this report, the official said Cyprus welcomed Starmer’s initial decision regarding the bases.
However, the country wants concrete guarantees that future governments, including one led by Trump ally Farage — who previously supported US military strikes against Iran before later questioning deeper involvement in the conflict — would not be able to use the bases unilaterally for military operations.
The official did not provide details on how such an arrangement would work in practice.
Britain maintains military bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia.
The bases have remained a sensitive issue for years. Concerns among Cypriots intensified after an Iranian drone attacked RAF Akrotiri on March 2 following the US-Israeli military operation against Iran.
Nicosia criticised what it described as inadequate communication from London regarding the incident, including whether the base had been involved in defence operations linked to the Iran conflict and the absence of prior warnings to local residents.
Following the attack, President Nikos Christodoulides called for discussions about the future of the “colonial” bases.
Cypriot diplomats also expressed “disappointment” over the lack of information-sharing surrounding the incident.
The episode has revived debate over how Britain should be permitted to use the bases. Cyprus sought support from other European Union member states.
In March, the European Council, bringing together EU leaders, said it “takes note of Cyprus’s intention to initiate discussions with the United Kingdom regarding the British bases in Cyprus and stands ready to provide assistance where necessary.”
Cypriot concerns deepened after Farage initially backed the use of overseas British bases, including those in Cyprus and the Chagos Islands, for offensive operations against Iran.
A few days later, however, he appeared to change course. Farage said, “If we cannot even defend Cyprus, we should not become involved in another foreign war,” raising fresh questions about how a Reform UK-led government might act if it came to power.
Reform UK is due to unveil part of its defence policy on June 1. The party has been consulting defence, security and intelligence specialists ahead of the next election but currently does not have an official defence spokesperson.
At the same time, the party insists that the United Kingdom must retain control of the bases in Cyprus.
A party spokesperson said:
“Reform UK supports the continued strategic importance of the British bases in Cyprus and the United Kingdom’s sovereign right to determine how they are used. Nigel Farage has been absolutely clear that the United Kingdom should not be dragged into unnecessary foreign wars, but neither should we pretend that we can project power overseas after years of cuts to our armed forces by both Labour and the Conservatives.”
Reform UK’s position on retaining control of the bases aligns with that of the current Labour government.
British officials say they are willing to discuss security cooperation with Cyprus but maintain that the legal status of the bases is “not open to debate.”
According to British officials, the status of the bases “rests on certain fundamental principles of international law, and once you begin to unravel that, matters become very complicated very quickly.”
However, one official added: “If Farage becomes prime minister, it is understandable that allies may be concerned about the reliability of the United Kingdom.”
A UK government official involved in discussions with Cyprus told POLITICO that the bases are protected by a complex network of treaties and that their sovereignty and future use are therefore not subject to negotiation.
“We must be able to use our bases without restrictions,” the official said.
London is also strengthening security at its bases in Cyprus.
A spokesperson for the UK Ministry of Defence said: “Since January, we have deployed additional defensive capabilities to Cyprus, including radar systems, counter-drone systems and fast jets. These were reinforced following the outbreak of the conflict with the deployment of HMS Dragon, additional Royal Navy Wildcat and Merlin helicopters, and Typhoon jets to protect our people and interests.”
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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