The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) has suggested that Moscow could be ready to launch a “large-scale war” in Europe within five years if it perceives NATO as weak.
“If Russia perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided, it would be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries,” the report published on Tuesday said.
“This is especially true if Russia perceives that the United States is unable or unwilling to support European NATO countries in a war with Russia,” the report continues, emphasizing that Russia is increasing its military capabilities to prepare for a possible war against NATO.
Assuming that Russia does not have the capacity to fight more than one country at a time, DDIS presents three scenarios that could unfold in the event of a cessation or freeze of hostilities in Ukraine.
According to the update, Russia could start a local war with a neighboring country within six months and a regional war in the Baltic Sea region within two years. In five years, it could launch a large-scale attack on Europe, provided the US does not intervene.
The Institute notes that the scenarios do not take into account a possible increase in NATO’s defense capacity.
Trump has called on NATO members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, double the current target, and says the US could withdraw from the military alliance if its allies do not do their share.
