A fear of an internal conflict is rising in the United States, where almost 2 years are left until the next presidential elections. The divide between the Republicans and the Democrats in the country is moving towards a point of no return, both and among government institutions and among the people themselves. The Economist journal, which carried the issue over the cover of the week’s issue, took its place with the headline “The Disunited States of America”.
The ‘lurking danger of a civil war’ is widely spoken in the US, where the resonations of the bloody raid of Congress building, after the November 2020 presidential elections, are still heard. And the number of Americans who believe the country is facing the threat of a civil war and a nationwide disaccord, is growing by each day. According to poll results published by YouGov and The Economist, two out of every five American citizens think that a civil war is very likely over the next decade, while three out of every five American citizens expect an increase in political distress within the next few years. Also two thirds (66%) of the American population, believe that the political divisions in this country have gotten much worse since the beginning of 2021.
According to the Newsweek report, another poll by Quinnipiac University, the results of which were released last Wednesday, 67 percent of Americans believe that their democracy is in danger of collapsing. There is a 9 percent increase in this when compared to a similar poll also conducted by Quinnipiac University in January.
After the FBI raid on the residence of the former US President Donald Trump in Florida, the FBI and the US Department of Homeland Security issued a joint statement warning of internal threats that are named, such as a bomb attack on the FBI headquarters, or other internal threats such as a “civil war” or an “armed revolution”.
An expert on civil conflicts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Rachel Kleinfeld, told the Guardian: “Countries with democracies and governments as strong as America’s do not fall into civil war. But if our institutions weaken, the story could be different”.
A professor of political sciences at the University of California in San Diego Barbara F. Walter, who is also an expert in political violence, warned that the United States was heading towards a major uprising that could be a form of a civil war, saying all possible symptoms of a civil war are showing up in the country.
A loss of hope, trust and the sense of belonging within the general public
The Washington Post also took the matter of a ‘civil war’ possibility, by publishing an article with the headline “Is the United States headed for civil war?”. Stating that there are very different opinions on this issue, the article also explained that “the pervasive loss of trust, hope and sense of belonging in a severely damaged society”, is more dangerous than the sporadic bursts of violence. And it was emphasized that both sides in the civil war debate, agree on this social crisis.
This stressful atmosphere in the country was also felt in the speech broadcasted on live television, by the US President Joe Biden, who addressed his citizens behind a bulletproof glass protection in Pennsylvania. Blaming the Republicans for the growing political violence and divisions in the country, Biden said that his Republican rivals led by Trump, “pose a threat to this country’s democracy.”
Former President Trump on the other hand, described Joe Biden as an “enemy of the state” in his campaign speech also in Pennsylvania one day earlier. Trump, who accused Biden of using the FBI as a tool against him, called this investigation a “witch hunt” against himself and all Republicans.
‘Two different states of mind’
In the aforementioned article of The Economist magazine, which put the picture shown above on its cover, and is titled ‘The Disunited States Of America’, it is told that there is ” two very different states of mind” in the country, and examples from both Republican and Democrat extremes are given; “On August 25th California banned the sale of petrol-powered cars from 2035, a move that will reshape the car industry, reduce carbon emissions and strain the state’s electricity grid. On the same day in Texas a “trigger” law banned abortion from the moment of conception, without exceptions for rape or incest”.
The Article states that the struggles between the red (Republicans) or blue (Democrats) states are divisive, while these battles “all entrench the notion that red and blue America cannot rub along despite their differences”.
‘The political violence will only get worse’
The Economist article states that the biggest worry is that “partisanship could undermine American democracy itself”. It is also commented that there could be more debates and disagreements over the prosecution of the votes from some states to be overridden in November’s midterm elections, just as it did in 2020, and that the current political violence could be proliferated.
Call for more centralization
Asserting that this dysfunction of America also poses a risk to ‘the world order that depends on it’, the article defends the idea that the US federal government should stop neglecting its responsibilities and be more effective and take important decisions on a national level, rather than local. At the end of the article, voters are urged to “act responsibly” and choose what is already available, on the grounds that “alternative is ever greater disunion, and that does not lead anywhere good”.
Experts share the view that the two-party system in the US, has now become dysfunctional and has caused a tension in both the institutions and the general public, rather creating a competitiveness. And with the socio-economic problems in the country are surfacing, the political divide is increasing more than ever. While the urbanized coastlines are represented by the Democrats, the traditional countryside is represented by the Republicans. Political hostilities are rising towards each other, both on a state level and among the general public.
Polarization, extremism and radicalization…
The Washington-based think tank named Brookings Institution, which is another American institution that has raised the issue, has warned that the political violence issue must be taken seriously.
While the article states that America faces a dangerous polarization, extremism and radicalization today, the people see their political opponent as enemies, and many do not even trust the motives or actions of their opponent political leaders.
Stressing that the political violence has increased significantly, the article calls on the Department of Homeland Security to combat ‘domestic terrorism’, the FBI to ‘increase its enforcement actions’, the intelligence agencies to ‘be alert regarding possible foreign support of extremist groups’ and the social media companies to take their censorship further.
