Democrats lead Republicans by double digits in congressional ballot poll

New York Times and Siena College released a new poll showing Democratic congressional candidates holding a double-digit lead over their Republican counterparts on the generic congressional ballot.

The survey, published on Monday, found that 50% of registered voters said they planned to support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district.

By comparison, 39% of respondents said they would back the Republican candidate, while 11% said they remained undecided.

In terms of partisan identification, 30% of respondents described themselves as Democrats, 29% as Republicans, and 35% as independents.

Another 3% identified with other political parties, while 5% either declined to answer the question or chose not to express a preference.

Within the overall voter pool, the largest share of respondents, 38%, said they had voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Meanwhile, 37% said they had cast ballots for then-Vice President Kamala Harris, while 18% said they had not voted in that election.

Asked about voter motivation, 90% of respondents said they intended to vote in the upcoming midterm elections.

The share of respondents who said they were unlikely to vote in the general election stood at 7%, while 2% declined to answer the question.

Donald Trump, who is seeking to preserve the Republican Party’s narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress, has continued to pursue a strategy of strongly backing his preferred candidates in state-level races.

At the same time, Trump has also moved to push out incumbent members of Congress who do not align fully with his legislative agenda.

Democrats, meanwhile, launched a broad voter registration campaign with a seven-figure budget earlier this year in an effort to increase the visibility and engagement of the party’s voter base.

In financial terms, Republicans held a larger cash reserve than their Democratic counterparts as of February.

The Republican campaign arm reported cash holdings of $78.2 million, while the Democratic equivalent held $69.9 million.

The midterm elections that will determine control of Congress are scheduled to take place on Nov. 3.

The New York Times/Siena College poll was conducted between May 11 and May 15 through telephone interviews.

The survey included 1,507 registered voters nationwide and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.