A few days before the U.S. elections, the polls are out of control. The pollsters, who have not been very successful in recent elections, are even more confused this time. 7 days apart, they are polling black voters. Support for Harris is up 15 points. In 7 days there were no incidents, no fights, no brawls… How is this possible?
The incompetence of some polling companies, the fear of some “not to be embarrassed like in 2016”, and the deliberate manipulation of others have thrown the polling issue into chaos. But October seems to have favoured Trump in every way. The vast majority of polls show Trump either ahead or neck and neck. To understand the significance of this, we need to look at previous elections. In the 2016 election, which Trump won, there was a difference of 8-10 points in many states, and up to 15 points in 2020. In 2016, Trump managed to close this gap and take the lead, and in 2020, despite losing, there was no serious difference.
So there’s only one perception in everyone’s mind;
‘If the polls say it’s neck-and-neck, then Trump has definitely got the job!’
Yes, that seems to be the case if we look at the electoral record since Trump became a political figure. But the pastor does not always eat rice. Will the pollsters underestimate Trump’s vote for the third time in a row? One argument is that the companies add a few points to the existing polls by taking into account the ‘hidden’ Trump votes. Many believe that there are a significant number of ‘hidden’ Trump voters in the country. They are either apolitical or pretend to be Democrats in public for fear of social pressure, but vote for Trump at the ballot box. I have even had the opportunity to meet some of them. They only show their colours when they feel comfortable.
Another argument is that pollsters have completely changed their research methods to reach rural voters more easily. Online surveys are being replaced by telephone or face-to-face interviews. There are even rumours that these systems will be used in the 2022 mid-term elections. In 2022, on the other hand, the Republican vote was exaggerated in the polls. The expected red wave in the election results did not materialise. Of course, the name on the ballot was not Donald Trump.
What if the polls are right?
The pollsters are still playing it close to the vest. The latest polls in the swing states show Trump ahead by 1 or 2 points. For example, according to the latest Atlas poll, Trump wins in 6 of the 7 swing states except North Carolina. But always by 1 to 3 points. A difference that can be included in the margin of error. They probably observe a trend against Trump in public opinion, but leave the difference within the margin of error so as not to be embarrassed.
Of course, there is also the possibility that Trump is making a serious difference. After Biden’s withdrawal, the donation money waiting in the wings and the excitement of finally having a young candidate created the Kamala Harris storm. With the effect of the 2020 primary debates, she also charmed her audience, who were expecting a poor debate performance from her, against Trump, adding to the storm. By October, however, Harris’s appeal began to wane. Harris had not won a single primary. In the polls taken when the nominee was still undecided, her public support seemed low. She summed up the image she had painted during the two-month campaign:
‘If I were president, I wouldn’t do anything different from Biden’.
That was the problem anyway! The American people have not had a good four years. The immigration crisis is out of control, inflation has exploded, purchasing power has fallen, the world is marching step by step towards the apocalypse… There is a nostalgia for the pre-Trump economy. In such a situation, voters are asking Harris: “Where have you been for 4 years?
In Pennsylvania, the most critical state in the election, there was a poll that was better than a straight election poll. The question was: ‘What was it like under Trump and what is it like now?’
54 percent of respondents said things were good under Trump. But only 27 per cent said things were good now. This is the most dangerous situation for Kamala. He is presenting himself as a continuation of the current government and people are unhappy with the status quo.
Another Trump
Going into the 2020 election, the political landscape was very different. There was a Trump who was fighting with someone almost every day and who was alone even in his own party. Many US structures, including the intelligence services, were directly and openly campaigning against him. Celebrities, rich people, CEOs of technology giants declared their support for Biden one after the other. In such a scene, it was inconceivable that Trump could win. How could he win with so many enemies? He couldn’t win anyway.
This year, however, the environment is a little different. He managed to bring together Peter Thiel, one of the shareholders of Open AI, with whom Vice President J.D. Vance is close, Elon Musk, the owner of X, and former Democrats Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard. In addition, for the first time in many years, major media organisations such as the Washington Post, LA Times and USA Today say they will not announce their support for the Democratic candidate. When you say the Washington Post, you are actually talking about Jeff Bezos, the owner of Amazon.
In other words, Trump is no longer alone and has managed to dismantle the huge bloc against him. In response, the ‘Cheney’ move came from Kamala. Former Republican Dick Cheney, the architect of the Iraq war, and his daughter Liz Cheney are backing Kamala. Liz Cheney is even running from rally to rally with Kamala. Kamala even said so proudly in the debate. Of course, it is debatable how much the Cheneys still mean to US society.
The only mistake that will make Trump lose
Many things have gone wrong since 2020. But Trump is only responsible for one of them: the abortion ban. The three Supreme Court justices Trump appointed before leaving office tipped the balance, and with their majority, abortion ceased to be a federal right. Although the decision was made in 2022 under the Biden administration, it is known that Trump is responsible. For 4 years, this is the only event that will reduce Trump’s vote. If Trump loses the election, it will be because women will flee to the Democrats because of the abortion decision.
Kamala also knows that this is her strongest area. The ads are largely based on this issue. No matter how much Trump says ‘I’m not against abortion’, this is the area where he has suffered the most damage in this election cycle. He alienated the suburban women who had previously carried him to success. Of course, it didn’t help that he said he hated Taylor Swift.
Anyway… The Atlas polling company I mentioned above is the one that has been closest to reality in recent election cycles. It was off by only 0.3 in 2020 and 0.2 in the 2022 midterms. Trump won by 2.7 points, according to Atlas’ last total vote survey before the election. The generic ballot question is important because for the Democrats to win, they definitely need to outperform Trump on the generic ballot and gain 2-3 points. The last Republican to win the election by beating his opponent in the popular vote was George W. Bush. Given that Trump has been holding rallies outside the swing states in recent weeks, and recently held a huge rally in New York, his goal will be not only to win the election, but also to prove his legitimacy by winning the popular vote.
Based on the information available so far, the interest in the early votes in the polls and the impression I got from the street, I see Trump one finger ahead. Things may change between now and the election. But what is clear is that the danger bells are ringing for the Democrats.
