Democrats take an 8-point lead over Republicans ahead of midterm elections, new poll finds

A new national poll published by NBC News shows that a large portion of voters believe President Donald Trump has failed to deliver on his promises, giving Democrats an early advantage in the race for next year’s congressional elections.

Approximately two-thirds of registered voters participating in the poll stated that the Trump administration has not met expectations on the economy and cost of living, while a majority also said it has failed to change the way Washington works.

However, the Democratic Party continues to have low popularity among voters as it struggles to present a viable alternative.

Trump’s approval rating on the decline

According to the poll results, Trump’s overall approval rating has dropped by 4 points since March, falling to 43%.

Meanwhile, 55% of participants stated they disapprove of the president’s performance.

In the poll, conducted one year before the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats lead Republicans by 8 points in the congressional race, 50% to 42%.

This is the largest margin for either party in NBC News polls since the 2018 midterm elections.

In a poll conducted in March, Democrats held only a 1-point advantage, at 48% to 47%.

“Combined with the results from elections in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as some others, we will see in a few days what effect these findings might have on a government shutdown,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

“The one thing we know is that voters are deeply dissatisfied with the current situation,” Horwitt said.

Who is responsible for the government shutdown?

The Democrats’ lead in the congressional race stands out as one of the largest advantages seen in public opinion polls conducted in 2025.

According to the poll, conducted between October 24-28, 52% of participants blame Trump and congressional Republicans for the government shutdown that has lasted for months.

On the other hand, a historically high 42% hold congressional Democrats responsible.

During past government shutdowns, a key question was whether the political atmosphere would remain the same throughout the election cycle after the funding crisis was resolved.

Republican pollster McInturff noted that government shutdowns can create “unstable” moments in politics, stating, “In our experience, these situations generally fade over time.”

Voter enthusiasm is high

The poll also revealed that voters are highly enthusiastic about the next elections.

When asked to rate their interest in the 2026 elections on a 10-point scale, 66% of voters responded with a “9” or “10.”

This level of interest is higher than that recorded one year before four of the last five midterm elections.

While 74% of Democrats rated their interest as a “9” or “10,” 67% of Republicans and 50% of independents gave the same response.

The 7-point enthusiasm gap between the parties is similar to the 9-point gap Democrats held in the 2018 midterm elections.

The results clearly indicate that Trump will be a significant factor in next year’s midterm elections.

Seventy percent of voters stated they want their vote to send a message of support for or opposition to the president. This is the highest figure recorded in the nearly 30-year history of NBC News polling. Forty percent of voters said their vote would be against Trump, while 30% said it would be in support of him.

Warning signs in the economy

In an interview on NBC News’s Meet the Press last December, Trump attributed his 2024 victory to two key factors, saying, “I won on the border, and I won on groceries.”

However, the new poll results contain some warning signs for the president on these issues, as well as on areas voters consider most important, such as protecting democracy and constitutional rights.

On economic issues, a large majority of registered voters believe Trump and his administration have failed to meet expectations regarding the cost of living (66%), protecting the middle class (65%), and the economy (63%).

Some Republicans also share this view, with this sentiment being concentrated among those who do not identify as “MAGA Republicans.”

The parties’ report cards on different issues

The poll also showed that voters are divided on which party would better manage the economy.

Thirty-eight percent of participants prefer Republicans, while 37% favor Democrats.

This marks the smallest margin Republicans have held on this issue in NBC News polls.

Democrats last held an advantage in this area in December 2017. In September 2023, Republicans had a 21-point lead.

Republicans maintain a significant advantage on three key issues: border security (+31 points over Democrats), fighting crime (+22 points), and immigration (+18 points).

Democrats hold an 8-point lead on protecting constitutional rights and an 11-point lead on protecting democracy.

This marks a shift from 2023, when Republicans were ahead by 8 points on constitutional rights and 1 point on protecting democracy.

Immigration policies and constitutional rights

Trump’s agenda of pursuing broad executive actions on immigration and other major policy areas is causing some public debate.

Fifty-four percent of participants stated that the Trump administration’s deployment of federal agents and National Guard troops to various cities nationwide to “combat crime and immigration” was largely unjustified, while 44% found the move justified.

The protection of constitutional rights and democracy also ranks among voters’ top concerns.

Nearly a quarter of voters said they consider protecting democracy or constitutional rights to be the single most important issue when casting their vote in next year’s congressional elections.

Fifty-two percent of voters said Trump has done more to weaken the US Constitution than to protect it compared to previous presidents, while 31% believe he has taken more steps to protect it.

Negative views of both parties

Although Trump’s challenges in the polls create opportunities for Democrats, the party’s overall image remains at a record low.

Only 28% of registered voters have a positive view of the Democratic Party, while 53% hold a negative opinion.

The Republican Party is in a relatively better position, with 37% positive and 46% negative ratings.

While 78% of Republicans view their own party favorably, only 59% of Democrats have a positive view of their party.

Peace efforts in Gaza

The poll also measured opinions on one of Trump’s major foreign policy initiatives: efforts to secure peace in Gaza, where a two-year war between Israel and Palestinian groups has been ongoing.

Voters are divided on Trump’s overall handling of the war: 47% approve, while 48% disapprove.

However, US voters are skeptical that Palestinians and Israelis can achieve a lasting peace agreement.

Only 21% believe a permanent peace can be achieved, while 69% think it is not possible.

Regarding the participation of US troops in a peacekeeping operation in Gaza, 41% of participants support the idea, while 54% are opposed.