Diplomacy
Erdoğan-Scholz meeting: Asylum seekers and arms deal take center stage
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Istanbul, where the topics of asylum seekers and arms exports took center stage.
Speaking after the meeting, Scholz noted that it was a ‘matter of course’ for NATO partner Türkiye to purchase German weapons, even expressing openness to the supply of Eurofighter jets.
Britain leads Eurofighter negotiations
Scholz clarified that negotiations regarding the supply of Eurofighter jets to Türkiye are being led by the UK, and that discussions are still in the early stages.
“There are some projects that have just started. This is a project the British government is leading, and negotiations are now beginning,” Scholz said at a press conference with Erdoğan, responding to a question on the topic.
Ankara had announced last year its interest in purchasing Eurofighter jets, but progress has been slow, largely due to Berlin’s concerns over Türkiye’s stance on the Gaza conflict.
Germany increases arms deliveries to Türkiye
According to Der Spiegel, Berlin recently approved significant arms deliveries to Türkiye, including anti-aircraft missiles valued at several hundred million euros.
Ahead of Scholz’s second visit to Türkiye in his three years in office, reports surfaced that the German government had once again approved large-scale arms exports to Türkiye. Tagesspiegel reported that, by October 13 of this year, 69 export licenses worth €103 million had been issued. Among these were weapons valued at €840,000.
For the first time since 2011, the approved export value for Türkiye has returned to the hundreds of millions. In the last major approval, 28 torpedoes and 101 guided missiles were greenlit for export.
Regarding the Eurofighter jets, since they are to be co-produced with Germany, the German government must also approve their sale.
Scholz: Relations have ‘noticeably improved’
The Eurofighter Typhoon jets are produced by a consortium of Airbus, BAE Systems, and Leonardo, with participation from Germany, the UK, Italy, and Spain. Any of the four nations can veto the sale, though London is currently leading the negotiations.
Erdoğan expressed satisfaction with the renewed defense cooperation, stating that previous obstacles to defense procurement “should now be left behind.”
The meeting between Scholz and Erdoğan, attended by top officials and ministers from both countries, was described by Scholz as a ‘visible sign’ of the improved quality of relations between Germany and Türkiye.
Migration: Low profile on concrete outcomes
When questioned about specific results on migration, both leaders kept a low profile, according to Tagesspiegel.
The German government is seeking to deport criminals not only to Afghanistan but also to Syria, and is exploring potential cooperation partners. Scholz reiterated his intention to deport “criminals” to Syria but avoided confirming whether Türkiye would assist in this effort.
As of September, 15,789 Turkish citizens were slated for deportation from Germany, an increase of 1,200 compared to five months earlier. During the first half of the year, 441 deportations were carried out.
Interior Minister Nancy Faeser recently stated that Türkiye had agreed to accelerate the repatriation of Turkish citizens, although no concrete details have been announced.
Erdoğan on migration and economic ties
Erdoğan noted that trade between Türkiye and Germany had reached $50 billion, with hopes of increasing this figure to $60 billion.
On the topic of migration, Erdoğan highlighted that Türkiye currently hosts around 3.5 million Syrian refugees and that the country will continue to keep its doors open to them.
“We worked on this issue during [former Chancellor] Merkel’s time in office. Our door has always been open, and it remains so. When people from the Middle East or Lebanon came, we welcomed them. There are also Turkmen in Lebanon. Our door is open,” Erdoğan said.
Scholz thanked Erdoğan for Türkiye’s efforts in managing migration and assured that Germany would continue supporting Türkiye in handling the influx of Syrian refugees.
Disagreements on Gaza
The two leaders maintained differing views on the situation in Gaza. Erdoğan accused Israel of committing genocide, a claim Scholz firmly rejected.
“Germany does not believe that the accusation of genocide is justified,” Scholz stated, while emphasizing that Israel has the right to self-defense, provided it adheres to international law.
Scholz acknowledged their disagreement on the issue, remarking: “Even if we do not agree on everything, an intensive dialogue on international conflicts is important—it is the only way to find solutions.”
Calls for cooperation on Ukraine
Both leaders expressed a desire to collaborate on the Ukraine conflict, though their statements remained vague.
“We are both on the side of Ukraine,” Scholz said, adding that he would like to explore how Türkiye and Germany could cooperate on the matter.
In recent weeks, Scholz has intensified efforts to advocate for a new peace conference on Ukraine that would include Russia.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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