Erdoğan’s White House visit could unlock $50 billion in US-Türkiye trade deals

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will visit the White House for the first time in six years, aiming to sign a series of agreements intended to mend strained relations between the two countries.

According to Turkish officials who spoke with Bloomberg, the meeting with President Donald Trump, scheduled for today (September 25), is expected to pave the way for Türkiye to purchase a range of items, from Lockheed Martin fighter jets and Boeing aircraft to liquefied natural gas.

Erdoğan sees this meeting as an opportunity to mend relations strained by Türkiye’s arms purchases from Russia, diplomatic disputes, and retaliatory tariffs.

According to Bloomberg, Türkiye remains dependent on US military and diplomatic support to maintain its regional influence, and investors believe its role in the Western alliance is critical for the development of the Middle East’s largest economy.

Expectations of a thaw in relations with Washington have boosted Turkish markets, with government bonds and stocks rising since Trump announced the White House visit last week.

“Erdoğan wants to use Trump’s presidency to reshape and improve Türkiye-US relations, focusing on enhancing the defense relationship,” said Emre Peker, director of Eurasia Group Europe, based in London. “The energy and defense deals Erdoğan is pursuing are the main pillars of a mutually beneficial, transactional relationship that will also appeal to Trump’s deal-making instincts.”

Nihat Ali Özcan, a strategist at the Ankara-based think tank TEPAV, claimed, “Erdoğan, who prioritizes remaining president, aims not to jeopardize his career path with any problems stemming from the US or Trump until the 2028 elections or an earlier vote.”

The largest share of the potential deals on Thursday could be in the aviation sector. Turkish officials said Boeing and Lockheed Martin could receive orders for 250 commercial jetliners and additional F-16 fighter jets.

Last week, Trump indicated a potential breakthrough in the long-standing deadlock over the F-35 stealth jets. Türkiye was one of the original partners in the development of Lockheed’s most advanced fighter jet but was removed from the program after purchasing Russia’s S-400 air defense system.

This purchase led to congressional sanctions known as CAATSA, which target Türkiye’s defense industry and remain in effect.

According to Turkish officials, Ankara has refused to dispose of the S-400s as requested by Washington but hopes that if a compromise on their deployment can be reached, the door could reopen for the purchase of 40 F-35s.

On Wednesday, Türkiye announced it had signed long-term agreements with Mercuria Energy and Woodside Energy to purchase approximately 76 billion cubic meters of natural gas, primarily in the form of LNG from facilities in the US.

The gas shipments and defense deals will bolster bilateral trade, which both countries have stated they want to triple to an annual total of $100 billion.

“Türkiye is signaling a strategic shift toward rebuilding trust, especially after tensions over its defense ties with Russia and differing foreign policy positions,” said Umud Shokri, a senior foreign policy advisor at the Middle East Institute, a think tank in Washington.

Shokri added, however, that the “delicate balance” between Russia and the West creates risk factors that introduce uncertainty.

How relations develop from here will have repercussions beyond Türkiye’s borders, particularly in Syria.