Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam inauguration reignites Nile River tensions

With Ethiopia’s inauguration of the Renaissance Dam last Tuesday, Addis Ababa has entered a new period of tension in its relations with the downstream countries of Egypt and Sudan.

Cairo and Khartoum have long expressed their complete opposition to any “unilateral steps” that would harm water resources in the Eastern Nile basin, emphasizing that their water security is inextricably linked.

The Nile River originates in the tropical region of East Africa and consists of two main tributaries: the White Nile, which rises from Lake Victoria, and the Blue Nile, which rises from Lake Tana in Ethiopia.

These two rivers merge in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, and flow northward, eventually emptying into the Mediterranean Sea.

While Ethiopia focuses on the potential benefits of the dam, the calculations in Khartoum and Cairo are becoming more complex.

Sudan’s Roseires Dam concern

For Sudan, the ecosystem of the Blue Nile will be negatively affected if approximately 300 cubic meters of water per second are not released. The size of the Renaissance Dam and its direct impact on the Roseires Dam, located about 100 kilometers away, are sources of serious concern.

The Roseires Dam, a hydroelectric power station, is situated on the Blue Nile in the Sudanese city of Ed-Damazin. Constructed between 1961 and 1966, the dam is used for irrigation and electricity generation, featuring a plant with a capacity of 280 megawatts.

Upgrades were made in 2013 to increase the dam’s storage and power generation capacity. This dam is considered the backbone of Sudan’s electricity grid, providing the country with clean and cheap electricity.

The safe filling and operation of both the Renaissance and Roseires dams depend on full compliance with the daily exchange of data between the two facilities.

Although this was stipulated in the 2015 Framework Agreement, the absence of a signed binding agreement means that commitments are not being fulfilled.

This situation jeopardizes the operation of the Roseires Dam due to a lack of information regarding discharge data, the safety status of the Renaissance Dam, emergency plans, and other technical operational matters.

Sudan argues that the necessary coordination must be based on a written agreement that guarantees the sharing of data on the filling and discharging of the dams.

Such an agreement should include a commitment to full cooperation to ensure the two dams operate in harmony, as the filling rules for the Roseires Dam depend on the amount of water released from the Renaissance Dam and the flood season.

Egypt’s search for alternatives

Egypt, meanwhile, continues to reject Addis Ababa’s policies regarding the dam, its future, and its negative impacts on the country’s water resources.

Egypt’s annual share of water from the Nile River is approximately 55 billion cubic meters, 80% of which is used in agriculture. Since Ethiopia began constructing and impounding water at the dam, the Egyptian government has resorted to various policies to reduce water consumption.

Chief among these measures are reducing the cultivation area for rice and focusing on crops that consume less water, such as corn, potatoes, and clover.

The government has also turned to projects like seawater desalination plants, wastewater treatment facilities, and the rehabilitation of thousands of kilometers of water canals to prevent water waste.

However, these measures and projects have not stopped Cairo from pursuing political and diplomatic efforts to compel Ethiopia to sign a binding legal agreement that secures the historical water shares of the downstream countries.

The historical roots of the dispute

The water dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia is not rooted solely in the Renaissance Dam but in the Nile waters themselves and whether Ethiopia recognizes Egypt’s 55.5 billion cubic meter share, established by the 1929 and 1959 agreements.

Ethiopia does not recognize these historical agreements, particularly the 1902 agreement signed between the then-Ethiopian Emperor Menelik II and Great Britain, which colonized Egypt and Sudan.

Addis Ababa argues that these agreements were signed during the colonial era and therefore cannot be inherited, while Egypt strictly adheres to the theory of state succession to international treaties.

This deep disagreement led to Egypt’s refusal to join the Nile Basin Countries Framework Agreement, signed in 2010 and known as the Entebbe Agreement. While Ethiopia and other countries ratified the agreement starting in 2013, Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and the Democratic Republic of Congo did not become parties to it.

Egypt’s reservations at the time centered on Article 14b concerning water security and Article 8 regarding prior notification for projects. Egypt demanded that it and Sudan be informed and their approval obtained before the implementation of any project.

At the Kinshasa meeting in May 2009, Egypt insisted that the legal framework of the agreement include text in Article 14b on water security, explicitly stating that Egypt’s historical water share would not be touched.

Furthermore, it demanded that Article 8, concerning the principle of prior notification for downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan) to object before any project begins, be included in the main body of the agreement rather than in the annexes; however, these demands were not met regarding the Renaissance Dam.

Complex political conditions and a long negotiation process

In February 2011, the Ethiopian government announced the start of construction on the Renaissance Dam. Some observers viewed this move as taking advantage of the critical political situation in Egypt following the January 25th Revolution and the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak.

In Sudan, the government of President Omar al-Bashir was overthrown in April 2019, but the country quickly descended into political tension and has been the scene of a bloody conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces since April 2023. This situation has weakened Khartoum’s negotiating position on the water issue.

While Egypt was preoccupied with its internal affairs, then-Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi laid the foundation stone for the project in April 2011, initially named “Millennium” and later changed to the “Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.”

Zenawi later proposed the establishment of a tripartite technical committee composed of the water ministers of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia to study the dam issue and reach a common vision and agreement that would satisfy all parties.

The committee was formed in September 2011 and began its meetings two months later. This marked the beginning of a long negotiation process that included dozens of technical and ministerial-level meetings but failed to produce any solution.

In December 2023, Egypt announced the end of the negotiation process related to the dam due to, according to a statement from the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation at the time, “Ethiopia’s persistent refusal for years to accept any technical or legal middle-ground solution that would safeguard the interests of all three countries.”

Is there a solution to the conflict?

Last Tuesday, coinciding with the inauguration celebrations for the Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia, Cairo lodged a formal protest by sending a letter to the Security Council condemning a “unilateral act” contrary to international law.

In the letter from the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Cairo stated that the giant dam is a “unilateral act contrary to law and international customs.”

Egypt emphasized that it “will not allow Ethiopia’s attempts to unilaterally dominate the management of its water resources and reserves the right to take all measures guaranteed by international law and the UN Charter to defend the existential interests of its people.”

However, Egypt has not yet specified what these measures will be.

It is evident that the period after the dam’s commissioning will not be like the one before, especially since the dam has now become a fait accompli and given the political and economic challenges facing Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan.