EU threatens to treat Belgium ‘like Hungary’ over Ukraine aid dispute

The EU is planning to “treat Belgium like Hungary” as member states threaten to ostracize the Belgians to persuade them to support a plan for financing Ukraine.

According to a report in POLITICO, the most important task for EU leaders at the December 18 summit will be to convince Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever.

The Belgian prime minister is vetoing efforts to provide a €210 billion loan to Ukraine. De Wever has resisted the plan to finance the loan using frozen Russian assets for so long—most of which are located in Belgium—that diplomats from across the bloc are now strategizing on how to persuade him.

De Wever is resisting out of concern that Belgium will be in a difficult position when the money needs to be repaid, and he is now demanding more assurances. Nearly all of the Russian assets are held at Euroclear, a financial company in Brussels.

The Belgian leader wants the EU to provide financial guarantees, an additional cash buffer to cover potential legal disputes and settlements, and further protections, but this idea has been rejected by many governments.

Belgium has sent a list of changes it wants, to avoid having to repay the money to Moscow alone if sanctions are lifted. De Wever has stated that he will not support the compensation loan if his concerns are not addressed.

When the leaders last met in October, they thought they would reach an agreement. At that time, it was unimaginable that they would fail to secure a deal in December. Now, this possibility seems high.

Diplomats say that not all hope is lost yet. Ambassadors will review Belgium’s demands line by line, identify the biggest concerns, and try to address them. There is still room for maneuver. The plan is to get as close as possible to Belgium’s position.

However, a week before the leaders meet, the EU is increasing the pressure. According to an EU diplomat familiar with the talks, if De Wever continues to block the plan—a path he has followed for months by proposing additional conditions and demands—he will find himself “in an uncomfortable and conspicuous position” as the leader of a long-standing pro-EU country.

The Belgian leader will be excluded and ignored, much like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has been given the cold shoulder for reasons such as “democratic backsliding and refusal to sanction Russia.”

The message to Belgium is that if it does not join the plan, its diplomats, ministers, and leaders will lose their voice at the EU table. Officials will place Belgium’s wish list and its concerns about the EU’s 2028-2034 long-term budget at the bottom of the pile, which will cause the government a major headache, especially when negotiations enter the critical final stage in 18 months.

According to one diplomat, Belgium’s views on EU proposals will not be sought, and their phone calls will not be answered.

Diplomats argue that “desperate times call for desperate measures.” Ukraine faces a budget deficit of €71.7 billion next year and will have to start cutting public spending from April if it cannot secure this money.

Stressing the high stakes, EU ambassadors will meet three times this week—on Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday—to discuss the Commission’s loan proposal published last week.

The European Commission has presented another option for financing Ukraine: joint debt backed by the EU’s next seven-year budget.

Hungary has officially rejected the issuance of eurobonds, and borrowing from the EU budget to support Ukraine requires unanimity.

This leaves Plan C: some countries using their own treasuries to keep Ukraine afloat.

This possibility is not among the Commission’s proposals, but diplomats are quietly discussing it. Germany, the Scandinavian countries, and the Baltic states are seen as the most likely participants.

On the other hand, those who put forward this idea issue a warning: the most important benefit of EU membership for countries around the bloc is “solidarity.” Forcing some member states to bear the financial burden of supporting Ukraine alone risks a serious division at the core of the bloc.

According to this line of thought, Germany might not choose to support a failing bank in a country that is not currently providing cash to Kyiv in the future. “Solidarity is a two-way street,” said one diplomat.

Of course, there is another way, but it is only possible in theory. EU leaders could come together and approve the “compensation loan” plan through a “qualified majority” vote, ignoring Belgium’s rejection and forcing it through. However, diplomats said this is not being seriously considered.