Europe faces $3 trillion bill for tech sovereignty as governments drop US suppliers

Europe would need to spend approximately $3 trillion over the next decade to achieve digital independence and phase out US and Asian technology providers, according to a report by Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst Mandeep Singh.

This projected capital outlay encompasses the development of cloud infrastructure, the construction of artificial intelligence data centers, the training of large language models, and investments across other technological domains.

Singh’s report noted that guaranteed demand generated through a “Buy European” mechanism could serve as the single most powerful leverage point for the EU to achieve its software sovereignty objectives.

A prominent example of this shift centers on Palantir, the US-based technology firm founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel. In June, French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that France would terminate its partnership with Palantir, despite having three years remaining on its contract with the French domestic intelligence service, the DGSI. Lecornu stated: “France must possess its own tools.”

The announcement followed a decision by US President Donald Trump to restrict access to leading AI models belonging to Anthropic. Lecornu identified ChapsVision, a domestic competitor, as the replacement for Palantir.

Palantir executives were caught off guard by the development, according to Bloomberg. One company official accused Lecornu of turning critical security decisions into a “Hollywood feud.” The official noted that the contract with the DGSI, France’s internal intelligence agency, had only recently been renewed for a three-year period.

In the UK, Member of Parliament Chi Onwurah proposed terminating Palantir’s £330 million ($440 million) contract with the National Health Service (NHS).

“They have a political agenda,” Onwurah said. “Palantir represents an unacceptable vulnerability in our digital infrastructure.”

Bloomberg reported that Palantir’s position in Europe is weakening, with security agencies in Germany and Poland actively seeking local providers. The Dutch Defense Minister pledged to replace Palantir with European vendors. In July, two British startups founded by former Palantir employees secured funding aimed directly at challenging their former employer.

At the center of these developments, ChapsVision has secured contracts across French government ministries and public institutions. According to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates, the DGSI contract alone is worth at least €100 million. Politico reported in May that Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the BfV, selected ChapsVision to replace its existing arrangement with Palantir.

In an interview, ChapsVision Chief Executive Officer Silvano Sansoni said: “Our objective is to become a European champion.”

Sansoni stated that the company is currently in talks with all sensitive clients in Poland, adding that Germany represents its primary strategic focus in the near term. Acknowledging that ChapsVision cannot immediately replace Palantir’s full capabilities for French intelligence, Sansoni said: “The technology is complex, so we will not replace Palantir tomorrow.”

Industry experts interviewed by Bloomberg highlighted potential risks associated with the sovereign push. Retired General Richard Barrons, former commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command, remarked: “Locking Palantir out would be madness. You cut yourself off from world-leading capability.”

Nick Patience, an analyst at The Futurum Group, observed that achieving 100% sovereignty in an interconnected world is unlikely. Patience pointed to ChapsVision’s partnership with Alcatel Lucent Enterprise, a company majority-owned by the Chinese state-owned enterprise China Huaxin.

Bloomberg reported that following Trump’s decision to ban foreign access to the Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models, Europe and Canada resolved to urgently develop sovereign AI capabilities to avoid dependency on foreign policy decisions.

In early June, the Financial Times reported, citing sources, that the US National Security Agency (NSA) could deploy Anthropic’s Claude Mythos model to execute cyber operations.

One source noted that the system could be utilized to penetrate network infrastructure in countries such as China or Iran.