Europe forges new security path with Ukraine as faith in US leadership fades

For nearly six months, leaders of Europe’s major powers have been quietly assessing Donald Trump’s maneuvers within a tightly confined strategic framework.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is also participating in these secret talks. A consensus has emerged from the discussions that Europe must construct its security architecture without reliance on the US.

According to reports from Politico, this new military alliance could take shape as a “coalition of the willing.”

Senior European officials have stated that under the Trump administration, the US is no longer a reliable partner in either trade or security.

A European government representative noted a permanent shift in American policy, asserting, “Waiting for things to settle down is not an option. An orderly and coordinated transition to a new reality must be organized.”

Ukraine army to be at center of new alliance

The planned format could serve as the foundation for a military alliance at a time when the US is withdrawing its support for NATO and European security.

While this structure does not entirely rule out cooperation with the US, Washington’s support is no longer accepted as an “absolute data point” or certainty.

Bringing together Ukraine—which possesses Europe’s most battle-hardened army—with nations such as France, Germany, Poland, and the UK represents a massive military capacity encompassing both nuclear and non-nuclear forces.

During the first half of Trump’s presidency, European nations attempted to negotiate based on the longstanding principles that have guided transatlantic relations for the past 80 years.

However, in recent months, many nations have begun to act without the US within a group of 35 countries intent on supporting Ukraine.

Diplomatic sources indicate that the “Washington Group”—comprising leaders who traveled to Washington with Zelenskyy last August—has forged extremely tight bonds among key actors.

Private communication network established among leaders

The “Washington Group” includes UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

It is reported that these leaders utilize a closed chat channel to maintain a unified stance against Trump’s erratic outbursts and to rapidly resolve urgent matters.

Zelenskyy is reportedly part of this communication network. While the path to NATO membership appears closed for Ukraine at present, the significance of joining the alliance is diminishing in an era where US military support guarantees have become uncertain.

It is noted that if Ukraine becomes part of a European-centric coalition, it could coordinate defense activities with European partners and receive direct assistance from them.

European army and Security Council proposal

Various concepts for strengthening defense capabilities without US participation are already being debated across Europe.

European Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius has proposed the creation of a robust, permanent “European armed forces” of 100,000 personnel, alongside a European Security Council that includes the UK.

Kubilius stated, “We must invest in defense so that we can fight as Europe, not as the aggregate of 27 national armies.”

On the French front, a draft resolution has been submitted to parliament calling for the country’s withdrawal from NATO.

Clémence Guetté, a lawmaker from a left-wing party, justified this initiative by citing a return to the US’s “implicit imperialist policy,” which she argues reduces the European Union to the status of a “vassal” (dependent state).

In response to Trump’s aggressive stance regarding Greenland, European politicians have begun discussing measures in private talks, such as cutting support for the US military presence in Europe and reclaiming control of American bases.