European defense overhaul: Billions sought for joint security fund

Following US President Donald Trump’s call for peace negotiations in Ukraine, suspension of military aid to Ukraine, and increased defense spending by NATO countries, alarm bells have started ringing in Brussels and Berlin.

European Commission President von der Leyen aims to mobilize a Europe-wide defense budget to continue supporting Ukraine.

In this context, Leyen proposed a plan for the “rearmament of Europe.” EU member states need to invest in a joint defense budget to protect themselves independently of US aid. According to Leyen, an amount of up to 800 billion euros could be mobilized.

Leyen’s five-point plan, announced in Brussels on Tuesday, includes easing debt rules and providing incentives for increased defense spending.

Member states will be enabled to spend more on defense without falling into a debt trap. A new fund of 150 billion euros will be created to support the 27 member states investing in defense.

The Commission stated that the new 150 billion euro joint borrowing would be directed towards building Europe-wide capabilities such as air and missile defense, artillery systems, missiles and ammunition, drones, and anti-drone systems, or meeting other needs from cyber to military mobility.

Social spending to be redirected to arms procurement

“This will help Member States pool their demands and buy together, reducing costs, fragmentation, increasing interoperability, and strengthening our defense industrial base,” Leyen said.

Leyen argued that if member states increased their defense spending by an average of 1.5% of GDP, this could create a fiscal space of nearly 650 billion euros.

The Commission also proposed that EU countries could use the money they receive from the EU budget, intended to equalize living standards across Europe, for defense purposes.

Arguing that the real question is not “whether Europe is facing real threats or whether it needs to take more responsibility for its security,” Leyen said, “The real question is whether Europe is ready to respond decisively as the situation requires.”

Europe is ready to increase its spending to help Ukraine in the short term but also to protect itself in the long term. “Now is the time to take responsibility,” Leyen said.

Recommendations from Berlin: Implement social cuts, indoctrinate the public

Government advisors and foreign policy experts in Berlin are also calling on the next German government to significantly increase the military budget, make severe cuts in social spending, and strongly indoctrinate the public (“change of mindset”).

The demands are featured in the current issue of the journal Internationale Politik (IP), published by the influential German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). The cover story of this issue is the question of “what the world expects from Germany after the election.”

For example, the articles state that the new government must prepare the German people “for Germany to become the leading power in Europe, diplomatically and militarily.” For this, it is necessary to “embed the turning point in people’s minds.”

Strategies to reverse the EU’s decline

According to the current issue of IP, as reported by German Foreign Policy, the EU has been characterized by “a growing decline” for some time.

According to DGAP expert Josef Janning, who has been analyzing the EU for decades, there are several reasons for this. One of these reasons is that the “consequences of supranational political interdependence” are beginning to be felt in daily life, especially in “distribution conflicts and crises.”

These are often negative, especially for weaker member states and population groups that do not belong to the national elites. Janning writes, “[This situation] contributes to the … gain in weight of right-wing national currents and parties.”

At the same time, “at the latest with the failure of the 2004 Constitutional Treaty,” the goal of “a closer union of the peoples of Europe” disappeared from real politics and is, at best, only mentioned in “ceremonial acts … and coalition agreements,” he believes.

In addition, there are no longer “strategically oriented coalitions among member states,” probably due to increasing differences in interests. Finally, it should be noted that the US, under the Trump administration, lost interest in a “stable” and “cooperative Europe.”

The dissolution of the EU as a realistic scenario

Janning notes that political entities like the EU can “continue to exist institutionally” but can also “lose their importance and integrity.”

Institutions like the EU are in danger of becoming “obsolete” if they lose their ability to “further develop” or even act actively. Therefore, “national solo efforts” should be increasingly expected.

“If these trends reach the first pillar of the EU, the internal market and the common currency,” Janning continues, “then the Union will self-destruct in an ‘abundance’ of internal conflicts.”

The author argues that in no period since the 1950s has the centrifugal dynamic been stronger and more visible than in the current situation. “While institutions and processes function as usual, the essence of integration is eroding beneath the surface,” he says, suggesting that for the first time, the failure and dissolution of the European Union “seems like a realistic scenario.”

Seeking “ways out of the erosion,” the DGAP expert argues that the EU needs “an orientation towards political unity, strategic thinking.”

A Bundeswehr capable of war: New taxes for the public for the army

According to the author, this includes the “common defense issue.” Janning believes this too, saying, “Most, if not all, depends on Germany, the economically strongest power in the center of Europe.”

While Janning insists on addressing the “common defense issue” to save the EU, Carlo Masala, Professor of International Politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, calls on the future German government to “realize that the foundations of Germany’s security and defense policy must be renewed,” which means a “Bundeswehr capable of war.”

According to the professor, what is needed is a significant increase in the military budget. Masala proposes, among other things, “a solidarity surcharge for defense,” amounting to “1 to 1.5%” of income tax, “to be paid by everyone working in Germany.”

Besides, Masala believes that a significant increase in the number of personnel in the Bundeswehr is necessary because there will be a “disproportionately large wave of retirements” in the next few years.

An internal memo from the German Ministry of Defense recently considered increasing the current number of 180,000 personnel to 440,000 soldiers. However, the Two Plus Four Agreement provides for an upper limit of 350,000.

The Two Plus Four Agreement is the name given to the documents signed by the Federal Republic of Germany with the German Democratic Republic and the US-United Kingdom-France-USSR, paving the way for “German reunification.”

Independently of this, not only a return to compulsory military service but also a change in the Constitution is required, for example, to extend compulsory military service to women.

Change of mindset: Be ready for German leadership

Jan Techau, Director of the Europe Program at the Eurasia Group in Berlin, also argues in favor of mass armament in IP.

According to Techau, the next German government must prepare “the Germans, the Berlin bubble, and itself … for Germany to become the leading power in Europe, diplomatically and militarily.”

The learning process towards accepting this role will be “much more difficult” because “everything is very, very expensive,” and the next Federal Chancellor will “have to make and justify dramatic budget decisions,” according to the author.

Techau states that this is “clear to everyone involved,” but before the election, no one wants to be “caught telling the truth” about it.

According to the author, what is important now is to prepare the conservatives for “new debts” and the left for “painful structural reforms”: “Otherwise, there is a risk of resistance and blockade.”

But Techau also sees it as “the real task of the next government” to prepare the public for the fact that Berlin will “have to make some unheard-of decisions in the near future.” The author does not explain what this means beyond the enormous costs of weapons and other war equipment. However, he believes that “a change in mindset, a turning point in people’s minds” is necessary.

Armament should cease to be a moral issue for Germans

Ulrike Esther Franke from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is also among those offering advice on this matter.

Franke criticizes the discussions on military issues in Germany as being “morally charged”; according to her, military experts are therefore faced with “considerable distrust,” and this situation “does not contribute to a better discussion environment.”

The author also suggests that war discussions in Germany are “driven by fear,” which she considers harmful for dealing with future “dangers.”

Franke believes that the war in Ukraine has created “a window of opportunity in the willingness to deal with defense issues”; therefore, the next government should use this to set a significant course before the “mood” changes.

Franke calls on the new German government, “Now is the time for political leadership.”