Richard Outzen is a retired US colonel who served on the US State Department’s Policy Planning Team and as an advisor to several secretaries of state.
Outzen served as both a military and civilian advisor to the US State Department between 2016 and 2021, working in the Office of Policy Planning and later in the Office of the Special Envoy for Syria. From 2013 to 2016, he was a faculty member at the National Defense University (NDU) and the Institute for National Security Studies. From 2014 to 2015, he was the US defense attaché in Kabul. He previously served as deputy chief of staff for training and development for the US Security Coordinator in Jerusalem. He has published extensive research on policy and strategy issues, with a focus on the Middle East and Central Asia.
Currently a geopolitical advisor to leading US think tanks such as the Atlantic Council, Outzen, who speaks Turkish, Arabic, Hebrew and German, has over thirty years of active military service, held various command, staff and liaison positions, and spent ten years in the Middle East, including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Outzen answered our questions on Turkey-US relations, Turkey’s position in NATO and the Russia-Ukraine war.
‘Turkey’s demands for Sweden’s membership are reasonable and appropriate’
A trilateral meeting between Turkey, Sweden and Finland took place recently. After the meeting, President Erdoğan said that “we are not very warm” to Sweden’s NATO membership. Do you think this opinion will change before the NATO summit in Lithuania next month? How will NATO and the US react if it doesn’t change?
I do not see a great chance for a change. What actions Sweden takes are important. They had some legal problems. It can be said that there is a weakness in Swedish law against terrorism. For them, being a member of a terrorist organization was not a serious crime. These constitutional problems changed at the end of 2022. In the past, if a person did not actually commit an act of terrorism, it was not a crime. It was not even a crime to make propaganda and recruit members, let alone to be a member. This allowed the PKK, an international terrorist organization, to demonstrate and expand its influence in Sweden. Turkey would naturally not be in favor of such a situation. The amendment to this law only came into force on June 1st. So far, it is known that they will extradite one terrorist offender, and he is known for crimes such as drugs as well as PKK affiliation. But this is only one step.
Turkey is waiting for more important steps. It wants the organization’s money collection and recruitment methods to be prevented. I think this is a reasonable and appropriate request. After all, NATO membership comes with many obligations. If Sweden is attacked one day, Turkey will have to defend Sweden. Therefore, Sweden should take the PKK, Turkey’s number one national security problem, seriously. This is a very reasonable request. So I do not think there will be a major change happening within a month. I do not expect it to be in time for Vilnius. I know that we (the US) will be disappointed here too. After all, we are trying to grow NATO against the Russian threat. Both aspirations are good and reasonable, but the timing is not good.
That’s why I do not think the US will react with threatening language and sanctions. This is not going to speed up the process in any way. Turkey has shown that it will not give up its national interests through sanctions. My guess is that it will go on like this for another 3-4 months. Sweden will continue to implement its new laws. If Turkey is satisfied, they will be able to join NATO, just like Finland. We should not expect this to happen quickly.
‘They will not give F-16 approval until they see Sweden’s NATO membership’
As you know, the F-16 and modernization kit negotiations between Turkey and the US are ongoing. The Biden administration has also expressed its positive opinion on this issue, but the decision also needs to be approved by the Congress. How do you think Turkey’s position and policies on Sweden will affect the F-16 decision? Does the purchase of F-16s depend on Sweden’s membership?
It depends. It should not depend, but unfortunately it does. The place of Congress in our system is very important when it comes to arms deals. Especially in committee on foreign affairs, there are four senior congressmen. If even one of them objects, there will be a delay. The president could force a vote as per his wishes, but that would not go down well with his own party. That’s why Biden will start his rounds of persuasion. One of the people he has to convince is Senator Menendez. Menendez has said that he will not give his approval until he sees Sweden’s NATO membership. If the Swedish issue is to drag on, so is the F-16. This is very upsetting. I personally support Turkey getting the F-16s. After all, this is a matter of domestic politics. The Democrats want to see Sweden in NATO and they do not care much about the PKK. Of course, there are also anti-Turkey people in the congress. They are disturbed by the strengthening of Turkey. Of course, this is not a new issue. During the 1974 peace operation, the congress was also annoyed and imposed embargoes. We stopped selling anything to Turkey for 5-6 years. At that time, Turkey’s defense industry was not very mature. It became a bigger problem for Turkey. In fact, this played a big role in the development of defense investments in Turkey. In order not to be in a dependent role like then, the Turks reinforced their defense industry. The F-16 issue is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, but Turkey has other options, such as its own defense industry or other partners.
‘The US will not react to an operation west of the Euphrates’
Turkey’s operations in Syria in the past years were severely criticized in the West. For the last year, there has been talk of a new operation against PKK-YPG terrorist units in Syria. The sanctions imposed on Russia after the Ukraine war failed to achieve what was expected. Would a possible Turkish operation open the door to similar sanctions?
This sanctions issue is very popular in the US. How effectively it works is open to debate. In such a possible operation, the region picked is very important. Most of our troops are in the northeast of Syria. We have troops in places like Kobani or Qamishli.
The places President Erdoğan mentioned are in the west of the Euphrates. There are no US troops in areas like Tel Rifaat or Manbij. The YPG units there have no such mission as fighting against ISIS. They occupy the region with the support of Assad, the Russians and the Iranians. These are Sunni-majority areas. I do not think that a small-scale operation will cause a big reaction. Nevertheless, one has to be careful, two allies like Turkey and the US should not confront each other.
‘White House will be pragmatic about the election results in Turkey’
Biden made remarks that he would support the opposition in Turkey during the 2020 election. With these statements, we observed that the tension between Biden and President Erdogan increased. How do you think the Turkish-American relations will be affected by the fact that Erdogan won again in the elections and will remain in the government for another 5 years?
Early indications are that the White House will be pragmatic. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan gave an interview. When asked, “Does the anti-Americanism in the Turkish election campaigns bother you?” Sullivan said, “Turkey is a democracy. There is always anti-Americanism in Turkish elections. But that has not hindered our relationship to date. There is a lot of work to do with Turkey, from Ukraine to Syria. We will approach it in a constructive way.” This is very interesting because Turkey was not invited to the Democracy meetings in 2021 and 2022. This was to emphasize that Turkey is not a democratic country. But now the National Security Advisor says that Turkey is a democracy. He did not say conditional democracy, he did not say authoritarian democracy. He directly called it a democracy. This is a positive sign. The White House gave the message that “OK, we did not get what we wanted, but we continue to work together”.
‘The US is not very even-handed on the Turkey-Greece issue’
It would not be surprising to say that Turkey-Greece relations have become increasingly tense in recent years. Recently, the US military bases on the Turkish border have added to these tensions. Especially in the Turkish media, the claim that these build-ups are against Turkey rather than Russia has been widely voiced. What do you think?
As an American, I want NATO to be strong. That includes both Greece and Turkey. This kind of build-up is never against allies. Of course, I understand Turkey’s concerns. The US is not very even-handed on the Turkey-Greece issue. For example, Mitsotakis can make a speech in front of the congress, but Turkey cannot. So I understand the concerns, but I do not think this is an intimidation against Turkey. There is also a financial reason for the military bases in Greece. The maintenance costs are lower compared to bases in Germany. This will never be a move against Turkey.
The tension between Mitsotakis and Erdoğan was beneficial for both sides on the eve of the elections. Both leaders gained comfort for 4-5 years. From now on, tensions will continue but ease a little bit. The problems between Turkey and Greece are not huge. There are no issues that cannot be solved. All problems can be solved in secluded meetings.
Of course, Greek friends say that this tension does not bother them. They receive “gifts” from the West thanks to the tension. They are upgrading their equipment. As the big brother, the US should promote peace and act in a balanced way.
‘A rupture in areas like Mariupol may encourage the Russians to come to the table’
Ukraine started an offensive after being equipped by the West. Western countries have invested heavily in this offensive. However, the first week of the offensive tells us that no major progress has been made and, moreover, serious losses have been suffered. According to many experts, there will be no serious territorial change in the next year. US Chief of Staff Mark Milley has also said that “we do not expect any major change”. There are even such comments that the war may last not years but decades. How do you assess the course of the war?
General Milley also said “Kyiv will fall in three days”. High rank does not always mean good sense of prediction. War is a very complex and difficult process. It is difficult to predict how an operation will develop in advance. But we know that there are serious weaknesses in the Russian army. They have not been able to successfully conclude their offensive. Yes, Bakhmut was taken, but no further progress was made, moreover, serious losses were suffered.
The Ukrainian offensive has not yet matured. For now, they are launching minor offensives to find weak points. In this way, they expect the Russians to shift their reserves. Ukraine has heavy armored brigades set up for the offensive. These brigades are equipped by the West. We have not yet seen the main force of the offensive on the ground. It will not take long, within a week or ten days, they will find a weak point and try their luck. Then we will see if there is going to be any results. I agree that this war may take a long time, especially the cleansing of Crimea from the Russians. But war is full of surprises. A breakthrough in areas like Melitopol and Mariupol could turn the tide. Maybe then the Russians will be encouraged to come to the table. The Russians made such a mistake in the World Wars. They left a serious force in front but weakened the flanks. As the Germans quickly surrounded them, the Russians were unable to withdraw their troops, leading to the capture of about 200-300 thousand Russian soldiers. Of course, due to the scale of the war, this would not be the case now. If Ukraine can exploit a weakness, there could be a collapse.
But what if it doesn’t? If the offensive fails, how long can Western countries maintain their support? Or would they want to?
I think this is the biggest surprise of the war. Putin thought that the West would give up and leave Ukraine alone, but he was wrong. Because the West thinks that if Russia succeeds, this war will not be the last strike against Ukraine. Almost all NATO countries will continue to help Ukraine. A Russian victory would also be a disaster for Turkey. If Russia wipes Ukraine off the map, Turkey will be in a very difficult situation in the Black Sea. Yes, maybe Russia can continue this war for 10 years. But we can continue to support it for at least one or two more years.
‘China will not repeat US mistakes in the Middle East’
You know, in the last few months, China has strongly penetrated into the Middle East. The winds of diplomacy started to blow between Saudi Arabia and Iran, who have been at war for a long time over Yemen. We saw this period as a time in which US influence in the Middle East was waning, but China’s influence was growing. How do you see the new balances in the Middle East? How do you evaluate the thirty years the US has spent in the Middle East?
The US made huge mistakes for thirty years. In the 90s, there was an attempt to do good. After the Cold War, there was an expectation to do good all over the world. The intention was to bring prosperity and democracy. We focused on peace between Palestine and Israel. We wanted to remove dictators. But it did not happen. Even if we were very powerful, we could not manage such a complicated region. We did not try to build an empire like the classic British. Our people did not want to colonize these countries or even give them money. We got tired easily, and frankly, many mistakes were made. From Iraq to Libya, there were many mistakes. And the people of the United States said, “We cannot do it” and demanded withdrawal.
China, I think, will not repeat these mistakes. They have no desire to rule the region. They buy oil from both Saudi Arabia and Iran. They think that in order for the oil to reach them without problems, two countries should not fight. It’s more like a commercial deal. So, what they want is only order.
“Multipolarity” is much discussed at this time. If China tries to control the region, they cannot do it either. The US is also not so keen anymore. It is planning to get out of the Middle East and shift its influence to Asia.
Multipolarity is a good thing for this region since there are various powerhouses in the region such as Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Let them get along with each other. We cannot influence everything from outside. It is good that there is a dialog between these countries, which is happening now. Everyone should start talking to each other. For example, as Turkey you are now talking to Egypt as well. I think it is a good and normal thing that the countries in the region are filling the vacuum left by the US.
