Could the potential loss of US President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election bolster Russia’s negotiating stance? According to four senior US and European officials who spoke to CNN International, Russian leader Putin is strategizing his Ukrainian war plans with an eye on the 2024 elections. According to US and EU officials, Moscow believes that Biden’s departure from office could strengthen its position in Ukraine.
The conflict in Ukraine is intensifying in various hot spots, from Donbass in eastern Ukraine to the Black Sea and the coast of Odessa, making it challenging to forecast the immediate future of the war. Nonetheless, in the medium term, the trajectory of events can be somewhat predicted.
Currently, it appears unlikely that either side will achieve a definitive military victory.
During this stage of the war, Russia is concentrating on depleting Ukraine’s resources, while the Ukrainian government is actively seeking to enhance its inventory with advanced weapon systems, notably F-16 fighter jets.
While Russia is solidifying its position and has not shown significant vulnerability on the front line, even in the face of military rebellions like Wagner’s, the future military aid and training processes for the Ukrainian army, as well as the duration of the war for Ukraine, appear to be contingent on external developments beyond Kyiv’s control.
US and European officials have already initiated discussions regarding the implications of the 2024 presidential elections in light of the ongoing context. According to four US and EU officials who spoke to CNN International, Russian President Vladimir Putin has factored the 2024 presidential elections into his strategic considerations for the Ukrainian conflict.
“Trump will help Putin”
An anonymous US official suggests that Putin is trying to “hold out” until the 2024 election. According to the same source, Putin “knows that Trump will help him. So do the Ukrainians and our European partners.”
Former US President Donald Trump has consistently asserted in his statements on Ukraine that he could swiftly resolve the conflict in a day or two. Moreover, numerous Republicans in the US Senate and House of Representatives have been critical of and have questioned the provision of aid to Ukraine throughout the duration of the war.
According to a recent CNN International poll, a majority of Americans are opposed to providing further aid to Ukraine. Specifically, 71 percent of Republicans believe that Congress should not authorize new funding, and 59 percent of Republicans are of the opinion that the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine. On the other hand, the sentiments among Democrats differ significantly, with 62 percent expressing support for providing additional funding to Ukraine, and 61 percent believing that the US should do more to aid the country.
Donald Trump’s extremely heavy dossier, in which he is accused of interfering in the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election, makes sense in this context.
2023 summer front
During this summer, two significant developments had an impact on the conflict in Ukraine. The first was the NATO Summit, and the second was Russia’s withdrawal from the Grain Corridor agreement. Ukraine aimed to attend the summit with a military victory, but NATO commanders urged them to launch an offensive they were not fully prepared for. Despite their efforts, the Ukrainian forces were unable to break through the multi-layered defense lines established by Russia, which had learned from past mistakes of the last year. Additionally, there was a rebellion by the Wagner Group during the offensive, but it did not lead to a favorable outcome for Ukraine.
When the offensive did not yield the desired results, the special forces attack on the Crimean Bridge and drone strikes against Moscow became prominent in Ukraine’s military actions.
In response to the situation before and after the NATO summit, Russia withdrew from the Grain Corridor. It started to strike Ukraine’s ports and Black Sea coasts again.
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu also visited the conflict zone in Ukraine. He inspected the command center of the Central Troop Group and received reports from the commanders of the troops on the current situation and performance.
The US administration is calling on the UN Security Council to take action against Russia, which seems to have recovered on the front line compared to a year ago.
According to the US, Russia is using food as a weapon and striking ports in Ukraine. A document condemning this has been submitted by the US to the UN Security Council. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also called on Security Council members to say “enough” to Moscow.
Moscow, for its part, says it will return to the Grain Corridor Agreement only after the compromise text includes steps to remove obstacles to the export of Russian agricultural products. According to the Kremlin, Ukrainian grain mainly goes to rich countries, not poor ones.
A reminder: Jubilation for Trump in Damascus in 2016
Beyond the daily and weekly developments, the 2024 elections will redefine the attitude of both Moscow and the Western bloc towards the Ukrainian war. In 2016, it is worth remembering why the Damascus regime cheered when Trump won the presidency. We do not know what would have happened in Syria, the hot conflict zone of that period, if Hilary Clinton, who laughed at the cameras during a program about Gaddafi, had won. However, trying to evaluate the possible effects of the US elections in 2024 on the Ukraine crisis by looking at the effects of the previous elections on Syria is also quite possible and perhaps the subject of a separate article.
