Pakistani international relations expert Dr. Salma Malik discussed elections process and terrorist attacks with Harici. Answering Esra Karahindiba’s questions, Malik emphasized that Balochistan is an extremely strategic region for Pakistan and the starting point of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and said that other countries are deliberately targeting this region to prevent it from stabilizing.
Tensions have risen ahead of tomorrow’s elections in Pakistan. According to preliminary reports, 28 people were killed and 47 injured in bomb attacks targeting parliamentary candidates in Balochistan province. On the other hand, Imran Khan’s arrest and the crackdown on his party are drawing reactions.
Interior Minister Gohar Ejaz, in a statement after the blasts, emphasized that enemy elements want to defame Pakistan by creating an atmosphere of insecurity during the election period and said that those who play with the lives of innocent citizens “will be answered with iron fists”.
We spoke to Dr. Salma Malik, Assistant Professor at the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Quaid-I-Azam University in Islamabad, about the political developments in the country, the election process and Pakistan’s foreign policy. Specializing in Conflict and Security Studies and South Asian Affairs, Malik works for various organizations such as the Regional Center for Strategic Studies, Consortium Of South Asian Think Tanks, Social Sciences Research Council, WISCOMP and WDN-USA.
In Pakistan, the court sentenced Imran Khan and his wife Bibi to 14 years in prison before the elections on February 8, and ruled that Khan be banned from politics for 10 years. How do you evaluate this decision as it is taken just before the elections?
Imran Khan and his wife were sentenced in several cases including contracting Nikah before the termination of iddat, deemed anti Shariah, which has not been received well by many. All such verdicts in court cases filed against Imran, his wife and his party leaders have actually been counterproductive in denting his popularity. However, for this election the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party led by Imran Khan has faced several procedural hurdles that bars it from contesting elections and most of its candidates contest either as independent entities, some have joined hands with stronger parties and several others have publicly distanced themselves from the elections.
Khan’s PTI party says social media activities were deliberately restricted ahead of the election. Apart from that, they claim that they have been under great pressure from the army and state institutions since May, when Khan was arrested. Is the purpose of these restrictions and pressure to prevent the votes they will receive in the elections? There is also an opinion that the restrictions will increase public support for PTI. Do you agree?
As said earlier, efforts to sanction Khan and his party, where institutionally remain intact, at the public level, the support remains strong and intact, with people actually seeking out the “independent” candidates of PTI to vote for. Having said this, both the Pakistan Muslims League-Nawaz (PMLN) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) have their strongholds and vote basis, which will make the election results very diverse.
Allegations that the US State Department encouraged the removal of Imran Khan from his post as prime minister due to his “neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine War” caused controversy last year. Have these allegations been investigated? How does the country’s public opinion approach it?
There are and will remain a diverse range of public opinion for and against this aspect and this controversy has deeply impacted the overall political environment. There is an ongoing judicial investigation with regards this issue.
Which party does the military-dominated establishment in Pakistan support in the elections? Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz is said to be prominent. Say what?
There are public rumors of all sorts, but military has not expressed any such opinion.
How do you evaluate the latest bombed attacks in Balochistan? There are breaking news reporting the attacks in Pishin, targeting dozens of people in front of the office of Asfandiyar Khan Kakar. Besides, some other blasts are reported targeting Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) party building in Killa Saifullah. Should we expect a more eventful week?
Till the last day of campaigning, things have been as smooth as possible, however there have been few unfortunate incidents in which candidates have been killed. One can hope that the elections’ day would also be safe and smooth. But today, what is happening in Balochistan has it’s independent background in a sense that since the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) returned, we have witnessed such violence throughout the country. Balochistan is an extremely strategic and important area for Pakistan. It’s a place which has a history that can be exploited by insurgent and militant elements. So, Balochistan is always a target place for those people. Also, India and other countries have exploited Balochistan sentiment against the state of Pakistan. That is one of the reasons of violence in the region. Secondly, in the last day before the general elections, the security departments are perceiving that there could be trouble; there could be possible security threats such as what has happened in Balochistan to create a lot of disturbance ahead of elections. So, despite the red alarmed status of security process, there have been those unfortunate incidents. There is fear that they may further happen. That fact is there. And when it happens in Balochistan, that adds an unfortunate value to what has happening in the country regarding how Balochistan remains restive. As the Minister of Interior Affairs has said, this is an attempt by forces which are working against the state of Pakistan to exploit the situation and to convey a message that Pakistan and especially Balochistan are not secure areas. Also, the fact that Balochistan is the seed and culmination point of CPEC, they really want to give the message that they will not allow any progress, anything to become stable and normalized in Pakistan and in Balochistan. Economic development projects centered in and around Balochistan are unfortunately affected by that.
It was reported that part of the IMF’s rescue fund was activated. Has Pakistan implemented the austerity policies agreed with the IMF? Do you think the current IMF aid can save the country’s economy?
Yes, some measures to be implemented have been delayed till the formation of new government.
Let’s talk a little about the developments in the region. Pakistan sent some of the Afghan refugees back, saying they would no longer carry loads. The UN reacted to the deportation by calling it a human rights violation. What is the situation with the migrant crisis? Is it under control? Is there an agreement with the Taliban government on this issue?
Pakistan hasn’t officially sent back “refugees” but nationals from Afghanistan and few other countries, because of their illegal status, and also given the larger security and political environment. However, those registered as refugees and asylum seekers approved by aid agencies remain in the country.
Pakistan government has officially spoken with Taliban regime and they tried to put this message across to them that Pakistan has it’s strong strains. It has it’s strong issues. We cannot push in any further any other nationals. The Taliban administration has their own perspective in regard of this problem. The two actors have spoken to each other. They do understand and empathize that these countries have those concerns. But they do not go beyond that. So, it was not a fruitful conversation. Especially, if we look at that from a humanitarian angle, it has its own problems if you are looking at how the Taliban treats women, how that affected the situation and so on and so forth. These problems do remain. Pakistan is also concerned about the impact of this on general people. But we have our very genuine constraints. Unfortunately, these problems will remain for both the parties.
After Iran’s attack on the militias, which it considered a terrorist organization, on the Pakistan border, Pakistan responded and targeted militant groups in Sistan and Balochistan. Authorities stepped in and tensions were reduced. However, it is said that relevant organizations may create new provocations in the region. How do you interpret this development?
Pakistan’s counter strikes in retaliation t Iranian missile strikes were a surprise for many, as several could not fathom that Pakistan would react instantly, but with caution, prudence and still maintain a very strong diplomatic link. This has given a message to all actors (internal plus external) concerned very loud and clear. Plus, if viewed from the overall Middle Eastern scenario, there is a pronounced attempt at keeping the conflict spreading further.
The Pakistani Taliban has increased its attacks within the country. There are attacks especially targeting the Chinese presence in Pakistan. How do these attacks affect China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and China’s investments? What is the latest situation in CPEC?
The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) created provides a one window fast track approach for CPEC, more is expected with the coming in of the elected government. And yes, unfortunately the CPEC remains a choice target of militants backed by India and other countries that want this project to fail and will remain an aspect of high protection value for Pakistan’s security apparatus.
Pakistan officially applied to become a member of BRICS at the end of last year declaring that he relied on Russia’s support during the membership process. Is membership expected in 2024? Do you think the election results will affect Pakistan’s policy towards BRICS and the global south?
Pakistan should try all options for enhancing regional outreach and entering into economic alliances that can put it on the path of progress. The contesting parties have not been too externally focused in their election pitch, concentrating mostly on domestic growth and development. So, it depends what route the new elected government would take.
I feel that number one thing is depending on how the establishment works. Being part of BRICS is a priority because of economic compulsions. They would definitely go for it. Depending which government comes to power, popular sentiment of the moment tells us it is PML-N. But of course, we cannot talk anything certain now. Let’s say, this is the case, the PML-N is economic-centric. BRICS idea is something that can be favorable. Because the economics should be improved, they would explore different avenues. Especially regarding the BRICS, the main issue is that India is part of it. Most of the time, most of our evaluations are not far future ideas. Joining different alliences, being part of different systems are thwarted because of India’s imprint into those aspects. India does not allow Pakistan to enter these areas and to benefit. Also, what Pakistan brings to these multi-lateral institutions is also important. So, the next government or any government which comes to power, it’s strategy should be and must be the economic recovery of the country. If this requires cooling down around sentiments, thinking a little out of the box, thinking that how these things should work for the benefit of the country has to be priority for any future leadership which runs Pakistan. And BRICS is not all about ideal. If you are looking from the angle of Russians, but it depends. Russia would not say much to us. But would the other parties of BRICS primarily India warm up to the similar idea or not. Because we have seen South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) being suggested to be revived with the minus one formula that is take Pakistan out of SAARC, the only national body which South Asia has. Then, look at things how SAARC would work minus Pakistan. Obviously BRICS is not SAARC. BRICS is very vibrant. But still, this is one of the factors that would count a lot as to India would warm up to our entry or not agree to it.
