Former UN diplomat argues Europe cannot save Ukraine from military defeat

In an article for Emma magazine, former United Nations (UN) diplomat Michael von der Schulenburg stated that the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska took place at a time when Ukraine was facing a “devastating military defeat that can no longer be prevented with additional arms shipments or financial support.”

Von der Schulenburg expressed that this has increased the desire, especially among European NATO countries, to prevent defeat through a dangerous escalation and more direct NATO intervention in the war. “Faced with the dangers such an escalation would bring, the Trump-Putin meeting is of great importance to all of us,” he assessed.

While it is too early to fully evaluate the outcomes of the meeting, von der Schulenburg noted that four significant developments have emerged that will influence the course of the war in favor of a peaceful solution.

The veteran diplomat listed these developments as follows:

“First, after the US previously portrayed Putin as an international pariah and aimed to reduce Russia to a minor regional power in the Ukraine war, Putin is now being accepted for talks on an equal footing with the American president in Alaska as the head of state of a major power. This perhaps symbolizes the most decisive outcome of the Ukraine war. Second, with the direct meeting of the US and Russian leaders, the chance of resolving the Ukraine war through diplomatic means has increased significantly. Third, it is almost certain that the US will militarily withdraw from the war after this meeting. Without the US, EU countries and the United Kingdom will not be able to sustain the war, let alone escalate it. Fourth, although the US has not abandoned its demand for a ceasefire, it shows an understanding that a fundamental solution must first be found for the causes that led to this war.”

“Intention to negotiate fundamental concerns”

Von der Schulenburg pointed out that the fourth point is particularly problematic, stating that there is no consensus between the US and Russia on the one hand, and Ukraine and most EU countries on the other, regarding the causes of the war.

For this reason, no concrete ceasefire or negotiation proposal was made in Alaska, he said. “However, since there is no sign that Trump insisted on an immediate, unconditional ceasefire, it appears both sides are willing to negotiate over the fundamental concerns of the Russians,” he wrote.

Schulenburg said these preliminary decisions would be a major gain for President Putin. “Russia’s security concerns regarding NATO’s expansion into Ukraine and the US advance into the Black Sea region will be largely recognized, even if not yet resolved. At the same time, a large portion of the pro-Russian population will come under Russia’s sovereignty,” he assessed.

“The US is escaping the consequences of military defeat”

According to Schulenburg, this also means that for President Trump, the US can escape the consequences of Ukraine’s impending military defeat.

Recalling that the US has acted similarly in previous conflicts such as Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, the diplomat noted that with this step, Trump would fulfill “the desire of Americans that their country should no longer be involved in distant wars.”

For Europeans, however, the situation is completely different. Von der Schulenburg stated that in the five-point counter-proposal prepared under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, Emmanuel Macron, and Keir Starmer, these countries are stuck in their own war propaganda.

“With this attitude, the Ukraine war now becomes the responsibility of these European countries. But they will be able to wage the war neither militarily nor financially,” he said.

“Ukraine needs peace to preserve its statehood”

Schulenburg emphasized that Ukrainians must now understand that Europe will not and cannot save them.

The diplomat noted that European leaders urge Ukraine to continue the war but forget that the blood being shed is not their own, using the following words:

“The claim that it is necessary to continue supporting Ukraine militarily to achieve a better negotiating position is complete nonsense. Ukraine’s negotiating position has only continuously worsened over all this time. Ukraine must not allow its army to collapse and must prevent further territorial losses. Therefore, Ukraine needs peace to preserve the Ukrainian state.”

Von der Schulenburg stated that the negotiations between the US and Russian presidents offer Ukraine a chance to take the initiative and join these talks.

However, he added that this would only be possible if Ukraine is “ready to accept the realities arising from the war and focus on its future.”

Reminding that the eastern oblasts Russia now claims were attached to Ukraine in 1922 and Crimea in 1954, Schulenburg argued that the loss of these territories would not destroy Ukraine but could, on the contrary, make it a more “coherent state.”

“It is not worth sacrificing young generations or risking the further destruction of the country for these eastern regions,” wrote von der Schulenburg.