German industry faces uncertainty as Magyar’s landslide victory resets Hungary’s economic path

Following the landslide victory of Péter Magyar’s Tisza party in the Hungarian elections, a complex landscape is emerging for Germany: while Berlin may find political relief in the result, significant economic challenges are beginning to surface.

According to an analysis by German Foreign Policy, the ascent of Magyar’s leadership has already produced the first signs of friction between his proposed EU policies and the established interests of German corporations.

Magyar has pledged to firmly anchor the country within the European Union and NATO, while declaring an intent to adopt the euro. His proposed cabinet lineup is notable for its inclusion of executives from major corporations with extensive transatlantic experience. These signals mark a decisive break from the cooperation with Russia maintained by outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Simultaneously, however, Magyar has criticized the extensive subsidies previously granted to large corporations and has set a goal to diversify the Hungarian economy. For German firms that have benefited from the political and financial patronage of the Orbán government for years, these developments suggest a period of significant transition. Approximately 6,000 German companies currently operate in Hungary, a presence that has effectively turned the country into the hub of Germany’s “industrial backyard.”

Magyar also remains opposed to the EU Migration Pact. Meanwhile, pressure from Brussels continues to mount: Hungary must meet 25 reform conditions set by the European Commission by August to trigger the release of funds that were frozen during Orbán’s tenure.

Hungary as Germany’s industrial backyard

German firms remain the largest group of foreign investors in Hungary, with nearly 6,000 companies creating more than 300,000 jobs and investing approximately €18 billion. These enterprises account for 7% of Hungarian employment, contribute more than 11% of the country’s gross value added, and represent nearly one-sixth of all investments in the corporate sector.

Outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán relied on low taxes, deregulated labor laws, and the country’s central European location to construct what was described as an “efficient paradise” for German investors. This strategy solidified Hungary’s role as a central component of Germany’s industrial infrastructure.

German automotive giants as primary beneficiaries

One specific group of companies benefited disproportionately from Orbán’s policies: the German automotive giants.

Mercedes-Benz, for instance, is currently doubling its production capacity at its Kecskemét plant from 200,000 to 400,000 vehicles per year. In Debrecen, BMW has invested more than €2 billion in a new facility, marking its first production site in Eastern Europe. Only months ago, the Volkswagen-owned Cupra brand began production of the Terramar SUV at the Audi Hungaria plant in Győr. Audi, having expanded the facility, now employs 11,000 people there.

The economic incentives are stark. According to Eurostat data, the average labor cost in Germany was €43.30 per hour in 2024, compared to just €14.19 per hour in Hungary. Mercedes reports that production costs in Hungary are 70% lower than those in Germany.

Unlike their counterparts in German politics, German automakers did not oppose Orbán, as his administration provided what they viewed as ideal investment conditions. German suppliers also maintain a robust presence; Bosch operates its largest European development center outside of Germany at its innovation campus in Budapest. Employing 17,000 people, Bosch was projected to generate more than €5 billion in revenue there by 2024. Similarly, the Henkel Group has produced industrial adhesives in Környe for 15 years, supplying approximately 70 countries from that location.

Restrictions on strategic sectors

However, the Hungarian “investor paradise” has its limits. While Orbán aggressively promoted the export sector, he subjected strategic industries—including telecommunications, banking, logistics, construction, and retail—to restrictive industrial policies following the 2008/09 global financial crisis.

Foreign companies in these sectors have long complained of special taxes, regulatory hurdles, price controls, state intervention, and delayed approvals. In recent years, Hungary recorded the highest inflation rate in the EU, with food prices rising by as much as 45% at peak levels.

The Orbán government’s interventions affected not only the Austrian chain Spar and Britain’s Tesco but also German discounters Lidl (the Hungarian market leader), Aldi, and Penny. Price caps currently apply to more than 40 essential food products and will be extended to 30 pharmaceutical products starting in May 2025, a move impacting German retail chains dm and Rossmann.

Interventions in other sectors are even more pronounced. Companies are required to pay additional taxes on construction materials such as sand, gravel, and cement, which has adversely affected German manufacturers.

Scrutiny of “crony” contracts

The ongoing power struggle between the European Commission and Orbán has resulted in the freezing of tens of billions of euros in subsidies since 2022, leading to further economic strain.

A representative of the German steel company Thyssenkrupp Materials in Budapest noted that the cessation of these funds has damaged the industry. According to the official, orders have hit rock bottom and business is performing “truly poorly,” adding: “We hope that relations with the EU will improve again after the elections.”

An analysis by the Financial Times revealed that since Orbán took office in 2010, 14% of all state tenders were awarded to companies owned by just 13 individuals within his inner circle. These firms received an average of three times more contracts annually compared to the five years preceding Orbán’s premiership, spanning the banking, logistics, and construction sectors.

Péter Magyar, as Orbán’s successor, is now promising a new era and has declared a “struggle against 3,000 oligarchs.”

Business heavyweights dominate the new government

Immediately following his decisive victory in the April 12 elections, Magyar launched an offensive against Fidesz and its inner circle, calling for the resignation of President Tamás Sulyok. Magyar has threatened that if Sulyok does not resign voluntarily, he will seek the president’s removal via constitutional amendment.

Magyar is bringing in a new cabinet that includes several executives from major foreign corporations. His choice for Finance Minister, András Kárman—who served as Magyar’s economic advisor since the autumn—was previously responsible for the mortgage business at Austria’s Erste Bank. Prior to that, he served on the Board of Directors of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for three years. While Kárman initially worked in Orbán’s first government, he departed shortly thereafter due to disagreements over the prime minister’s confrontational stance toward the IMF.

István Kapitány, 64, slated to lead the Ministry of Energy, spent his entire career at the British oil major Shell.

The designated Foreign Minister, Anita Orbán, is a long-time veteran of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, having served as Hungary’s roving ambassador for energy security between 2010 and 2015. In 2020, the Orbán government supported her candidacy for NATO Deputy Secretary General. After leaving the ministry in 2015, she worked for several years at US LNG companies Cheniere and Tellurian before joining Vodafone as a lobbying expert in 2021.

A high-level executive and energy expert, Anita Orbán was previously part of Fidesz’s transatlantic wing. She resigned her post as special envoy for energy security in 2017 after Prime Minister Orbán signed a major deal with Russia. She is the author of the 2008 book Power, Energy and the New Russian Imperialism. Before entering active politics, she was a board member of the European Council on Foreign Relations and Globsec, and worked as a journalist writing foreign policy analysis for Heti Válasz.