German companies, which form the backbone of the German economy and dominate 95% of the global export market in their respective niches, have outlined their expectations for 2025.
The so-called Mittelstand companies, often referred to as “family enterprises” rather than traditional SMEs, have voiced concerns about the anticipated rise in protectionism by 2025. They urged policymakers to adopt a pragmatic approach when negotiating free trade agreements.
A survey conducted exclusively for WirtschaftsWoche by the business associations Die Familienunternehmer and Die Jungen Unternehmer reveals that few expect a resurgence of free trade. Instead, over 75% of respondents fear the continued expansion of global protectionism by 2025.
In this context, approximately 820 business leaders surveyed in October called for greater pragmatism in European trade policies. A majority advised that the signing of new European free trade agreements should not be conditional on compliance with stringent environmental or social standards in partner countries. Only 31% of respondents supported such conditions.
“Increasing protectionism poses a significant threat to Germany’s position as an export powerhouse,” cautioned Marie-Christine Ostermann, President of the Association of Family Businesses. She added, “Eliminating non-tariff trade barriers simplifies bureaucracy, delivering a cost-free boost to growth. The German government must actively support this.” Ostermann emphasized that free trade agreements not only reduce tariffs but also create new jobs, thereby promoting widespread economic growth.
Open markets, she explained, are essential for ensuring economic stability, not just in Germany or Europe, but globally.
On a cautionary note, Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist of the World Trade Organization (WTO), warned of a “new narrative of globalisation.” He observed that many citizens and policymakers increasingly view trade as a contributor to inequality and environmental degradation rather than a solution. Consequently, Ossa does not foresee improvements in globalisation in the near future, as the global economy remains at a crossroads where key trade policy decisions will have profound impacts.
A recent study by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) projects that global trade will reach a record level of nearly $33 trillion USD by 2024, driven primarily by a 7% growth in the services sector. However, UNCTAD’s outlook for 2025 is less optimistic, warning of potential trade wars and escalating geopolitical tensions.
