Gulf nations revive multi-billion dollar pipeline plans to bypass Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s threat to establish indefinite control over the Strait of Hormuz is forcing Gulf nations to revive costly pipeline projects aimed at bypassing the strategic chokepoint to ensure the continuity of oil and gas exports.

According to the Financial Times (FT), officials and industry executives note that while such projects are expensive, politically complex, and require years to complete, new pipelines may be the only way to reduce the persistent vulnerability of Gulf states to disruptions in the strait.

The current conflict has once again underscored the strategic value of Saudi Arabia’s 1,200-km East-West pipeline. Built in the 1980s amid fears that the Iran-Iraq “tanker war” would shutter the strait, this line has become a vital lifeline, capable of transporting 7 million barrels of oil per day to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, completely bypassing Hormuz.

“In hindsight, the East-West pipeline looks like a stroke of genius,” said a senior energy executive from the Gulf.

Amin Nasser, CEO of the Saudi state oil giant Aramco, told analysts last month that the pipeline is currently the primary route they utilize most effectively.

Now, the kingdom is evaluating how it can export more of its 10.2 million barrels of daily production through pipelines rather than sending it through Iranian-controlled waters. This assessment includes whether to further increase the capacity of the East-West pipeline or construct entirely new routes.

Previous regional plans for pipelines were repeatedly suspended or shelved due to high costs and complexity. However, Maisoon Kafafy, a senior adviser on Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council, stated that the mood in the Gulf has now shifted.

“I sense a transition from assumptions toward operational reality,” Kafafy said. “Everyone is looking at the same map and reaching the same conclusions.”

Kafafy noted that rather than individual projects, the most resilient option would be a “network of corridors” rather than a single alternative pipeline, though she added this would also be the most difficult to realize.

In the long term, new pipelines are likely to be part of broader trade routes through which a wide array of goods beyond oil and gas can flow.

One Gulf official mentioned that one option is the revival of US-led plans for an ambitious corridor known as IMEC, which would stretch from India to the Gulf and onward to Europe. However, part of this project involves a politically sensitive pipeline that would initially extend to the Israeli port of Haifa.

Yossi Abu, CEO of the Israeli firm NewMed Energy, expressed confidence that pipelines extending to the Mediterranean—whether terminating at Israeli or Egyptian ports—will be built.

“People must control their own destiny alongside their friends,” Abu said. “Throughout the region, on land, you need oil pipelines and railway connections without allowing others to create chokepoints that would suffocate us.”

Christopher Bush, CEO of the Lebanese private firm Cat Group—one of the primary builders of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline—said there was significant interest in new projects even before the war began.

“We have received requests regarding various pipelines. I have many different presentations on my desk,” Bush said.

However, Bush added that the hurdles remain immense, estimating that rebuilding the East-West pipeline today—which was carved out by blasting through the hard basalt rock of the Hijaz mountains on the Red Sea coast—would cost at least $5 billion. Proposals for more complex, multi-country routes passing from Iraq through Jordan, Syria, or Türkiye would cost between $15 billion and $20 billion.

“This issue has been studied. There are even pre-engineering studies for such routes from Iraq. There is a discussed opportunity,” Bush said.

Nevertheless, security risks include “numerous” unexploded bombs in Iraq and the continued presence of ISIS or other militants. Bush also warned that pipelines extending south to ports in Oman would face the difficulty of traversing both desert and rugged, rocky mountains.

Ports in Oman are also not exempt from Iranian security threats. Recent drone attacks on Salalah, a major port, caused the facility to be temporarily closed.

Political challenges include who would operate the pipeline and who would control the flow. A pipeline network would require Gulf countries to “abandon their individual policies and unite.”

In the short term, the most viable options may be expanding the East-West pipeline and Abu Dhabi’s existing route to Fujairah. This could increase capacity without the complexities introduced by new cross-border infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia could also develop additional export terminals on the Red Sea coast, including the deep-water port being built for the Neom project.

“I am certain they are considering this as a possibility. There are many smart people currently examining all of this. This is a major problem,” Bush said.

A senior energy executive noted that Abu Dhabi has always had a “Plan B” for a second pipeline to Fujairah but added that any decision is unlikely until the long-term status of the Strait of Hormuz is clarified.

Kafafy of the Atlantic Council agreed that it would take some time for Gulf countries to assess the situation regarding the waterway, but she stated that nations now accept that the scale of the current energy crisis requires a new way of thinking.

“Progress has been made in the chain of discussions. I do not expect the situation to return to its pre-conflict state,” she said.