How did 2025 unfold for Venezuela and Latin America?

For Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as for other regions of the world, the year 2025 meant being under the constant and intensified scrutiny of the United States government. However, even though the White House’s trade war, characterized by arbitrary tariffs, primarily targeted countries with which the United States had a trade deficit (China, Canada, Germany, Japan, Ireland), Latin America has been the main focus of the deployment of the “New Monroe Doctrine.” And, within this region, Venezuela has been the country that, on the one hand, has suffered the most from it, and on the other hand, has confronted it with the greatest resistance, determination, and courage.

If 2024 ended with the certainty that Donald Trump’s third presidency would represent a scenario of direct confrontation with Venezuela, 2025 culminates with the realization that a good portion of the predictions regarding the aggressions that the Republican administration in the White House would apply against the Caribbean country materialized. But not even the most audacious could have imagined that Trump would invent a nonexistent armed conflict with Venezuela to advance his attempt to subdue the government of Nicolás Maduro and seize Venezuelan oil. It is worth clarifying that we say it is a nonexistent conflict because Venezuela does not threaten US territory or the political stability of the US government. This idea, widely disseminated and largely consolidated, is only one part of the narrative that has been constructed since President Hugo Chávez arrived at Miraflores Palace in 1999.

Despite the extraordinary nature of the US aggression against Venezuela, as we know, it is not the only Latin American country that, in 2025, has suffered the “Trump Corollary” to US imperialism and the rise of the extreme right. Let us, then, review how the rest of the region has been affected in political, economic, social, environmental, cultural, and military terms.

Brazil: For the first time since its creation in 1992, the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP) was held in the Amazon region, one of the planet’s most important lungs. The 30th COP took place in Belém do Pará, where funding to address the effects of the climate crisis was tripled, but a concrete roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels was not agreed upon. This lack of commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, despite reaffirming the Paris Agreement and seeing progress in the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), drew criticism. COP 31 will be held in Antalya, Turkey, which will share the presidency with Australia.

On the political and judicial front, 2025 was the year that saw the conviction and imprisonment of former far-right conservative president Jair Bolsonaro for his role in the attempted coup d’état of January 8, 2023, in Brasília. This unprecedented event in Brazilian political history, which targeted Congress, the Presidential Palace, and the Supreme Court, tested democracy and the functioning of the separation of powers in the South American giant. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and three months by the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil’s highest court, becoming the first former president found guilty of leading a coup. Trump unsuccessfully attempted to support Bolsonaro by imposing sanctions and tariffs on some key Brazilian exports (coffee, meat, fruit, etc.). However, a few months later, due to the price increases of these products in the US domestic market, the US president was forced to remove those tariffs.

México: The first female president in the history of this country, Claudia Sheinbaum, demonstrated her political leadership with very positive results in 2025. As one of the United States’ main trading partners, when Trump took office on January 10th of this year, Mexico topped the list of supposed enemies of U.S. economic, social, territorial, and national security stability. Trump accused Mexico of “not doing enough in the fight against drug trafficking,” thus justifying a 30% tariff on all Mexican exports. He also designated six Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, including the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Sheinbaum responded with concrete actions: dozens of suspected drug traffickers were extradited to the United States. Furthermore, the Mexican president explained to her North American counterpart and neighbor why the tariffs would harm the US economy, and, as happened with other countries, Trump had to back down.

In the middle of the year, Mexico implemented a historic reform by holding its first-ever elections to choose judges and magistrates through popular vote. This judicial election, which renewed more than 2,600 positions nationwide, was made possible by the constitutional reform approved in 2014 during the administration of López Obrador (AMLO). The 2015 judicial reform established that all judges must be elected by popular vote; it also reduced the number of Supreme Court justices from 11 to 9; and replaced the Federal Judiciary Council with the Judicial Administration Body and the Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal. The objective of this initiative is to combat corruption and nepotism, increase transparency, and bring the judiciary closer to the Mexican people.

Sheinbaum faced a variety of challenges, among them, one of the most internationally impactful was the protests by the so-called “Generation Z” (people under 30), which gained momentum after the assassination of a mayor in the state of Michoacán. These protesters used the so-called “War on Drugs” to attack the government and the MORENA party. However, the Mexican president has been clear in stating that the war on drugs, besides being illegal, has not solved the problem but has worsened it, and that extrajudicial killings are not an option in her administration. In this sense, Sheinbaum continues the path of the Fourth Transformation, initiated by AMLO, with which she is building her own political hegemony.

In 2025, Mexico and Brazil were the main drivers of poverty reduction in Latin America. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean’s (ECLAC 2025) annual report revealed that thanks to increases in the minimum wage, government transfers to social welfare programs, and the economic recovery of these two countries, which together represent more than half of Latin America’s total population, poverty in the region decreased for the first time since ECLAC began conducting these studies. Mexico contributed 60% and 49% to the overall reduction in poverty and extreme poverty, respectively. Brazil also contributed significantly, accounting for 30% of the reduction in overall poverty and 31% of the reduction in extreme poverty.

Argentina: The second year of Javier Milei’s administration was marked primarily by a corruption scandal within his government. This included, on the one hand, the “$Libra” cryptocurrency scam, promoted by Milei through his X account, for which he faces a fraud investigation in the United States; and on the other hand, the bribes his sister, Karina Milei, solicited from public institutions amidst drastic cuts in public spending. By 2025, the most vulnerable sectors of Argentine society had suffered the consequences of the Milei model, fueled by low inflation due to weak demand, which in turn led to decreased production, business closures, and layoffs. These workers now lack access to social programs and policies to support them.

The progressive political field saw Cristina Fernández convicted of corruption and politically disqualified for six years. Fernández, who is under house arrest and remains key in building an alternative to Milei’s government, has lost political power. In this context, the governor of Buenos Aires, Alex Kicillof, Cristina Fernández’s former economy minister, consolidated his national profile with an eye toward the 2027 presidential elections after winning the legislative elections in the most important province in electoral terms, where he secured a 14% lead over Milei.

Milei, for his part, received full political and partial economic support from the Trump Administration, which allowed him to win the national legislative elections despite the governmental crisis facing his administration.

Presidential elections in 2025: Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Honduras

Ecuador: In the most violent year in Ecuador’s history, right-wing politician Daniel Noboa was re-elected president with 55% of the vote in a runoff election held in April, amid serious allegations of electoral fraud. However, in November, the majority of Ecuadorians rejected the president’s agenda in the Constitutional Referendum and Popular Consultation. The Ecuadorian president sought popular support to convene a Constituent Assembly; to establish foreign military bases in Ecuador; to eliminate state funding for political parties; and to reduce the number of legislators in the National Assembly. These proposals were rejected with 61.58% of the vote.

While Uruguay, under the leadership of Yamandú Orsi of the Frente Amplio, witnessed the return of the left to power, the opposite occurred in one of the Andean nation. Bolivia held presidential (and parliamentary) elections this year, marking the end of a political era that began in 2006 with the election of its first indigenous president, Evo Morales, now a political target and adversary of his former supporters. Evo remains entrenched and seemingly untouchable in the Chapare, a coca-growing region in the department of Cochabamba. On October 20, in the second round, Rodrigo Paz was declared the winner with 54% of the vote. On November 8, upon assuming the presidency, Paz, whose main slogans have been “Capitalism for all” and “Bolivia to the world and the world to Bolivia,” quickly moved to eliminate fuel subsidies and seek to restore foreign relations with the United States and Israel.

On December 24, the National Electoral Council (CNE) of Honduras declared Nasry Asfura the new Honduran president. The decision came almost a month after the elections and with more than 300 of the nearly 2,800 electoral tally sheets showing inconsistencies, in an electoral process rife with fraud allegations from various parties (both left and right) that participated in the contest. Asfura, a conservative and right-wing politician from the National Party, was the candidate supported by Donald Trump, who, upon seeing the delay in releasing the results, did not hesitate to say, “It seems that Honduras is trying to alter the results; if they do, there will be a scandal.”

Chile also closed out 2025 with the return of the right wing. José Antonio Kast won, with 58% of the vote to 42%, in the second round against the Communist Party candidate, Jeannette Jara. Kast, whose father was a member of the Nazi Party in Germany and who has supported the Pinochet dictatorship, will take office in March 2026. Kast’s arrival will implement an emergency administration, representing the biggest shift to the right since the return of democracy in Chile in 1990.

Venezuela: The country most besieged by the US in 2025

Even during his presidential campaign, Venezuela was among the top priorities on Trump’s foreign policy agenda. Therefore, upon assuming his third presidency on January 15, 2015, the US president launched a full-scale attack against the Venezuelan government. Trump has tried everything to undermine the democratic order in Venezuela and install a president subservient to the White House, in order to seize Venezuelan oil.

Openly calling for global mercenaries, the United States government increased the reward for the capture (read: assassination) of President Nicolás Maduro, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López. Meanwhile, Caracas received President Trump’s Special Envoy, Richard Grenell. These seemingly contradictory moves demonstrate the negotiator’s interest in first threatening to test the limits of what he can do. But negotiating with Venezuela is not a zero-sum game.

In another attempt to strangle the Venezuelan economy, Trump announced the termination of Chevron’s license to import Venezuelan oil and its derivatives. At the time, Chevron was the only U.S. oil company authorized to operate in Venezuela, despite the more than 1,000 unilateral coercive measures (sanctions) arbitrarily imposed on Venezuela. The U.S. oil company will continue operating in Venezuela until the end of 2025.

To dispel any remaining doubts that Trump has absolutely no interest in Venezuelan democracy or citizenship, the White House occupant invoked the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which grants the president the authority to identify and expel undocumented immigrants (although Trump has used this law to persecute and deport even immigrants with legal or pending residency). The Venezuelans were labeled as members of the “Tren de Aragua” gang and taken by the hundreds to a high-security prison in El Salvador: CECOT.

Furthermore, in an unprecedented act of war that put Latin America and the world on high alert, Trump deployed warships to the Caribbean, off the coast of Venezuela. To do so, he first had to designate the “Cartel of the Suns” as a terrorist organization, a designation that provided the White House with the legal framework to launch targeted military operations without congressional approval. Violating international law, Trump extrajudicially executed dozens of people by carrying out kinetic attacks in Caribbean waters near Colombia, Venezuela, and Trinidad and Tobago.

Finally, to further escalate tensions, in early December, Trump ordered a total and complete blockade of all oil tankers, sanctioned or not, entering or leaving Venezuela. The US president proudly declared: “Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest armada ever assembled in the history of South America. It will only get bigger, and the impact on them will be unprecedented, until they return to the United States of America all the oil, land, and other assets they previously stole from us.”

A few days later, the United States seized two oil tankers flying different flags, allegedly belonging to Iran and China, loaded with Venezuelan crude. In an act of piracy according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the US president ordered the arrest of the crews of these vessels, as well as the seizure of the ships and their cargoes. Currently, the US Coast Guard continues to monitor oil tankers it believes may be carrying Venezuelan oil, and a third seizure -characterized by the Venezuelan government as theft- of a third oil tanker, this time flying the Panamanian flag, has reportedly occurred.

This entire situation has logically resulted in an increase in military spending in the Latin American and Caribbean region, which, faced with the real threat of armed conflict, is preparing to defend its borders. Although official figures will be released in 2026, Brazil and Mexico are expected to top the list, but Colombia, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, Ecuador, Peru, the Dominican Republic, and even Argentina, somewhat further from the Caribbean, have also invested in defense.

Final thoughts

As a conclusion to this exhaustive analysis of the regional panorama in 2025, we can determine that Latin America and the Caribbean are at a historical crossroads where the anachronistic pretensions of a declining power collide with the reality of a new multipolar world order.

With his actions in Latin America, and despite his rhetoric as a “great negotiator,” 2025 confirms Trump as a decidedly warmongering, not pacifist, president. In fact, his administration has failed to pacify any international conflict; on the contrary, it has fabricated threats and escalated tensions through naval blockades, acts of piracy that border on international illegality, and the irrational imposition of tariffs on key trading partners.

Speaking of warmongers, paradoxically and symbolically, the Norwegian Nobel Committee decided to award the Nobel Peace Prize to María Corina Machado, the far-right leader who has called for military intervention and increased sanctions against Venezuela. This is further evidence that the Venezuelan right wing is to the right of Trump’s political views.

The 2025 assessment makes it clear that the Trump administration attempted to resurrect the old Monroe Doctrine under a veneer of economic and military aggression. However, concrete results have demonstrated that this doctrine has no place in the 21st century. Washington’s attempt to treat the region as its “backyard” clashes head-on with this reality: Venezuela, far from being isolated, has enjoyed the strategic, economic, and diplomatic support of powers like Russia and China, whose presence in the region acts as a necessary counterweight, neutralizing US ambitions for hegemonic control.

With his actions in Latin America, and despite his rhetoric as a “great negotiator,” 2025 confirms Trump as a decidedly warmongering, not pacifist, president. In fact, his administration has failed to pacify any international conflict; on the contrary, it has fabricated threats and escalated tensions through naval blockades, acts of piracy that border on international illegality, and the irrational imposition of tariffs on key trading partners.

Speaking of warmongers, paradoxically and symbolically, the Norwegian Nobel Committee decided to award the Nobel Peace Prize to María Corina Machado, the far-right leader who has called for military intervention and increased sanctions against Venezuela. This is further evidence that the Venezuelan right wing is to the right of Trump’s political views.

While it is true that the rise of the far right in countries like Chile, Bolivia, and Ecuador seems to strengthen Washington’s axis, Mexico’s solid leadership under Claudia Sheinbaum and Brazil’s stability demonstrate that Latin American sovereignty has deep roots. Venezuela’s resistance to the fiercest siege in its history is not only an act of national survival but also the epicenter of a struggle for regional self-determination, sovereignty, and independence from imperialist yokes.

Ultimately, 2025 closes with a resounding lesson for Washington: the natural resources and sovereignty of the Latin American and Caribbean peoples, who have chosen not to submit to foreign powers, can no longer be seized through obsolete 19th-century doctrines. In the case of Venezuela, the alliance with the Eurasian bloc and the strength of Venezuelan institutions have turned the “Trump Corollary” into a “paper tiger.” A free and independent Latin America already moves and lives in a multipolar world.