Duygu Çağla Bayram
The 1.5 month long general election season in India is long over and, as expected, Prime Minister Modi is in full swing in his third term. As far as America is concerned, the Modi government actually had a very good momentum with the administration of former President Donald Trump rather than the administration of Joe Biden. And the US presidential election is coming up.
In the run-up to the US presidential elections in November, Western countries may be concerned about the prospect of a comeback by former President Trump and his potential to sour relations between the US and its allies, but in India’s diplomatic and security circles, which adheres to the principle of ‘atmanirbhar’ or self-reliance in its defence policy and does not seek alliances with the US, there is a widespread belief that Trump’s return to power would be more conducive to advancing national interests.
Above all, the future Trump administration will almost certainly be less hostile to Russia than the Biden White House. Remember that Trump said last year that if he were elected US president he would end the war in Ukraine ‘in a day’ and cut off aid to Ukrainian President Yushchenko, forcing him to make a deal with Russian President Putin. And it is clear that this would be a move in favour of New Delhi, which, given its territorial and other disputes with China, cannot afford to sever friendly ties with Moscow. As Moscow’s war with Ukraine enters its third year, the gulf between the West and New Delhi over Russia policy is becoming clearer. New Delhi, which sees a catastrophic scenario of a deeply isolated Russia becoming a ‘de facto vassal of China’, clearly has its geopolitical interests at heart and opposes further isolation of the country. It therefore believes that it makes more sense to offer Russia more than one option and to encourage other countries, especially in Asia, to engage with Moscow. After all, Moscow has so far not taken sides in the sensitive border disputes between India and China or in the disputes over the status of Tibet, but there is no guarantee that this will not change if Russia becomes more subservient to Beijing.
And Modi’s government has not only refused to join international sanctions against Moscow, but has also taken advantage of the fall in Russian oil prices by increasing its purchases of crude oil from Russia, some of which it refines and re-exports. This has irritated both the Biden administration and other Western governments. If Trump is re-elected, however, New Delhi may no longer have to worry about the American reaction. After all, if Trump is re-elected, it is predicted that he will revive the dialogue with Putin, which will be beneficial for New Delhi. At the moment, the Ukraine issue is a serious source of friction for New Delhi with both Washington and Moscow. Therefore, if relations between Washington and Moscow improve, the complexity of New Delhi’s cooperation with both strategic partners will be reduced.
From another perspective, given that Trump sought to contain Beijing by expanding military cooperation with New Delhi during his previous presidency, it is likely that Trump will adopt a much tougher stance towards China than Biden. After all, while the Biden administration appears to have continued this policy, there is a natural assumption that this cooperation will accelerate if Trump comes to power. And it is clear that increased American pressure on Beijing would be a strategic boon for India, which has spent a lot of energy and time trying to maintain good relations with China, but has failed to do so and therefore continues to face serious security concerns and problems.
Third, Trump is expected to prioritise trade and investment over human rights and shared democratic values. This will naturally reduce the risk of conflict with the US over India’s human rights record. Compared to Trump, Biden has been more critical of New Delhi’s human rights record. It is clear that the Biden administration sees India as an important democratic partner, but concerns have also been raised about the Modi government’s crackdown on Muslims and media restrictions.
The West, which seems keen to preserve the US-led order that has been in place since the end of the Second World War, may be concerned that Trump’s return would threaten the existing global order, but India, which aspires to a multipolar world without a dominant superpower, would probably welcome it as part of the natural progression towards multipolarity. But there are risks to this view. Although he currently favours a hawkish policy towards Beijing, there is no guarantee against the risk that Trump could reverse course and strike a deal with Beijing if he believes it will benefit American interests.
But whatever happens, whoever the next American president is, India will remain one of the most important partners of Western democracies. And New Delhi, hoping that Donald Trump will take a tough stance against Beijing and see India as a reliable partner for the future, both in the security and economic spheres, will also be watching the potential Trump’s China policy very closely…
The truth is that Trump, despite being the first US president in history to be found guilty of all the charges brought against him – and let’s not forget an unsuccessful assassination attempt – already had the wind behind his supporters’ backs, and it seemed that the Trump wind was already blowing in world politics, while the Harris wind, which came into play after Biden withdrew from the nomination, seems to be complicating things a bit for the US.
By the way, if we look at the issue in the context of Kamala Harris’ Indian origin, some may assume that India is excited about Harris, but if I take into account the recent example of the former Indian-origin Prime Minister of the UK, Rishi Sunak, and how India was first excited and then disappointed, it is much more reasonable and logical to assume that India will think more coolly in terms of mentality.
