Israeli military analysts are divided over whether a direct confrontation with Iran would change the war in Gaza or influence the decision to occupy Rafah.
There is debate over how Iran’s rocket and drone attacks in response to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Damascus will affect the war in Gaza.
Israeli military analysts speaking to the New York Times are divided over whether a more direct confrontation with Iran will change the war in Gaza, now in its sixth month. The next turning point in this war may depend on whether Israel decides to pursue Hamas in the southern town of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians have fled because of the humanitarian crisis.
Some analysts argue that developments in Gaza will depend on whether Israel responds with a major counter-offensive against Iran. Others believe that Israel’s military campaign in Gaza will remain unaffected.
Shlomo Brom, a retired brigadier general and former head of the Israeli army’s strategic planning department, said that if Israel responded to an Iranian attack with a major force, it could trigger a multi-front war that would force the Israeli leadership to divert its attention away from Gaza. General Brom said that in the event of a major regional conflict, Israel might decide to postpone its plans to occupy Rafah, which Israeli officials have described as “the last Hamas stronghold”. “It is not comfortable for us to fight high-intensity wars in more than one area at the same time,” General Brom added.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has vowed to send ground troops into Rafah despite international pressure. An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Iranian attack would not affect the army’s plans to occupy Rafah.
General Brom said a large-scale direct confrontation with Iran could end the war in Gaza. But such an end to the war would require a broader ceasefire involving many parties, including Israel, Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah.
“There is an idea that in order to resolve a crisis, the situation first has to get worse,” Brom said, explaining that a comprehensive ceasefire after escalating tensions with Iran could lead that country to pressure its regional proxies to stop fighting Israel.
While members of Israel’s war cabinet made no official statement after Sunday’s meeting, an Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the talks said the country would respond to an Iranian attack, but it was unclear when and how.
But other military experts rejected any link between an Iranian attack and the war in Gaza.
“There is no connection,” said Amos Gilead, a retired major general who served in Israeli military intelligence. General Gilead said the Israeli army had sufficient resources to fight Iran and continue to fight Hamas in Gaza.
Other analysts made a similar point, arguing that the resources needed to fight Iran are different from those needed in Gaza. They said that Israel needs fighter jets and air defence systems to counter Iran. In contrast, they added, the army mainly needs ground troops, drones and helicopter gunships to fight Hamas in Gaza.
“There is no real tension between these two things,” said Giora Eiland, a retired major general and former head of Israel’s National Security Council.
Nevertheless, General Eiland said the success of the coalition, including the US, Britain and Jordan, in repelling the Iranian attack could inspire Israel to repair its battered international image by ending the war in Gaza.
While the US has largely supported Israel’s decision to go to war in Gaza, it has signalled its displeasure at the rising death toll and warned against a major ground offensive in Rafah. US support for Israel in shooting down Iranian drones and missiles on Sunday could put further pressure on its Israeli counterparts.
While General Eiland said such an outcome could help Israel win goodwill in the international community and contribute to a settlement that would end the war in Gaza and the conflict with Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon, he doubted Netanyahu would go down that road. “He says he wants to achieve ‘total victory’ in Gaza and take Rafah, a process that could take two or three months,” he said, referring to the prime minister: “Netanyahu clearly has a different mentality and priorities.”
