Iceland pivots toward EU membership amid US pressure and Greenland crisis

US President Donald Trump’s remarks regarding the potential annexation of Greenland have sent shockwaves far beyond the island’s borders.

According to reporting by Euractiv, this wave of pressure has reached neighboring Iceland, pushing the nation to reconsider the prospect of European Union membership.

In Reykjavik, the debate over joining the EU has shifted from purely economic considerations to a matter of long-term defense strategy and geopolitical orientation.

Eirikur Bergmann, a professor of political science at Iceland’s Bifröst University, noted that the Greenland issue is forcing Icelanders to rethink their international relations and is significantly fueling the discourse on EU accession.

“US arguments for Greenland apply to Iceland too”

While closer cooperation with the EU has been discussed in previous years, those debates primarily revolved around fisheries, sovereignty, and monetary policy.

Experts suggest that Reykjavik is now viewing its relationship with the EU through a security lens for the first time.

Bergmann summarized the situation by stating, “All the arguments the US has put forward for acquiring Greenland also apply to Iceland.”

Iceland’s growing interest in the EU is not solely driven by Trump’s desire for control over Greenland.

The government in Reykjavik is questioning Washington’s reliability as a security partner due to the current US administration’s perceived lack of commitment to international agreements and the 15% tariffs imposed by the White House on Icelandic products.

“Membership has now become inevitable”

Former Icelandic Prime Minister Thorsteinn Palsson emphasized that the US stance has created a strategic rupture. Palsson assessed the situation, stating:

“The US assault on Iceland’s vital interests fundamentally changes the situation. It has long been clear that full EU membership was a logical step for Iceland; however, if we want to protect our interests in the long term, it has now become almost inevitable.”

Iceland, which maintains no standing army of its own, is a member of NATO and the European Economic Area, and is part of the Schengen Area.

Reykjavik applied for EU membership in 2009 and began negotiations, but the process was complicated by disputes over fisheries—one of the most critical sectors of the Icelandic economy.

Consequently, a Euroskeptic government that took power in 2015 withdrew the application.

Referendum process could begin in the spring

According to Euractiv, the Icelandic Parliament will deliberate on a draft resolution this coming spring regarding a referendum on EU membership. If the resolution is approved, the vote is expected to take place within nine months.

Public opinion polls conducted in 2025 indicate that a majority of the population supports EU membership.

Data from the research firm Prósent shows that 45% of the public would vote “yes,” while 35% remain opposed.

Surveys by Gallup have yielded similar results. The report suggests that if Icelanders back membership in a referendum, accession to the EU could be finalized within a few years.