Impact of Le Pen’s ban could spread across Europe

France’s prominent right-wing politician Marine Le Pen was sentenced on Monday to a five-year ban from holding elected office. This penalty, if upheld after appeals, will prevent her from running for president in 2027.

A Paris court sentenced Le Pen to four years in prison—two suspended and two to be served under electronic monitoring—for embezzling European Parliament (EP) funds, and banned her from holding public office for five years.

The French leader is accused of embezzling €4.4 million in EP funds intended for staff working for her party, National Rally (RN), in Brussels.

In a statement on Tuesday, Le Pen declared, “The system dropped the nuclear bomb, and if they did this, it’s clearly because we are on the verge of winning power. We will not give up. We will not let the French people have the presidential election stolen from them.”

Le Pen’s accusation that the judiciary is politicized has fueled speculation that she might organize a counter-movement similar to that of former US President Donald Trump. However, RN officials state they will not follow Trump’s path, arguing that such an aggressive approach could alienate the undecided voters needed to win the two-round presidential election.

Referring to the protests on January 6, 2021, when Trump supporters contested Joe Biden’s election victory, Philippe Olivier, a senior RN figure and Le Pen’s brother-in-law, stated, “We will not do a Capitol [riot]. We will follow Martin Luther King. Jean-Marie Le Pen would have reacted like Trump, but Marine Le Pen is neither her father nor Trump. We will do it differently.”

Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old RN President designated as Le Pen’s successor, condemned the “tyranny of judges” and claimed that “French democracy is being executed.”

However, adopting a softer tone in an interview with CNews on Tuesday morning, Bardella said, “I believe democracy is the violence of words, never physical violence. I believe the French people must be angry today, and I tell them: Rise up! Be angry!”

The RN has called for “peaceful mass mobilization” and decided to organize a rally in Paris on Sunday to support Le Pen.

Officials also mentioned plans to engage with voters and distribute leaflets across the country this weekend.

Furthermore, the RN launched a petition titled “Save democracy, support Marine!” to rally its supporters.

Rémy Heitz, the chief prosecutor at France’s highest court of appeal, described such threats as serious and defended the court.

“The decision is not political; it is a legal decision made by three independent and impartial judges. Threats against judges are absolutely unacceptable in a democracy,” Heitz stated.

Prime Minister François Bayrou, speaking in the National Assembly on Tuesday, refuted claims that the judiciary was undermining French democracy.

However, the prime minister added that “as a citizen,” he questioned the appropriateness of an immediate ban from elections before all appeal routes were exhausted.

“The law under which the judges made their decision was passed by parliament . . . It is parliament that will decide whether this law should be changed,” Bayrou said.

Bayrou and his Democratic Movement party are facing a second trial in a fake contract case similar to Le Pen’s, following the prosecutors’ appeal of the initial verdict.

Legal troubles, including bans, are not new for politicians in France, and those affected often complain about the judges. Former president Nicolas Sarkozy accused the court of overreach and harassment in his ongoing case concerning alleged illegal campaign contributions from Libya.

Right-wing former prime minister François Fillon lost his frontrunner status ahead of the May 2017 presidential election after police launched a formal investigation in March of that year into allegations he employed his wife in a fake job as a parliamentary assistant.

In 2011, former president Jacques Chirac was found guilty of embezzling public funds and received a two-year suspended prison sentence.

Support for Le Pen from Israel, Trump, Orbán, Salvini, and Wilders

Several right-wing leaders, including Trump, have stood by Le Pen, attacking the “radical left” for allegedly trying to eliminate opponents through the judiciary.

Trump commented on Le Pen’s ban on Monday, stating, “This is a very big deal,” and drew parallels with the series of lawsuits filed against him, many of which were dropped after his re-election.

“Sounds like this country [the US]. Sounds very much like this country,” Trump remarked.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán initiated the “#JeSuisMarine” [“#IAmMarine”] tag on X, while Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Lega leader Matteo Salvini called the decision a “declaration of war by Brussels,” suggesting that “those who fear the voters’ decision often seek reassurance from the courts’ decision.”

Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch right-wing PVV, also supported Le Pen, stating, “I believe in her,” and expressing confidence that she would win her appeal, overturn the ban, and “become the President of France.”

Harald Vilimsky, an Austrian FPÖ MEP within the PfE group, spoke of a “scandalous decision,” while Tom Van Grieken, leader of Belgium’s Vlaams Belang, described the court ruling as an “attack on democracy.”

Santiago Abascal, leader of the Spanish party Vox, declared that the French people ‘cannot be silenced.’

Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli stated on X that the “pathetic and transparent attempt by declining elites to suppress the will of the people using the judicial system as a weapon” would fail.

Will protest votes rise in Europe?

Meanwhile, according to poll results released Monday by the Odoxa polling institute, Le Pen is France’s most popular politician with a 37% approval rating, slightly ahead of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe (36%) and RN party leader Jordan Bardella (35%).

Regardless of the legal interpretation of the ruling, it appears to have deepened divisions within the French population and threatens to attract new sympathizers to the right.

For instance, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) believes this will help further mobilize the RN base ahead of the next elections.

In a recent statement, the ECFR warned that the ruling against Le Pen would have broader and significant consequences across Europe.

Mentioning the potential for a surge in “anti-establishment” movements in Europe, the ECFR pointed out that the view propagated by the Trump administration—that liberal elites have “captured political systems in the West”—would gain further legitimacy.

The ECFR suggested we will see the far-right more strongly asserting in the future that “the system” is working to silence them, noting this is already happening beyond Europe, citing Brazil’s far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, who claimed “the left and the system” work to “take opponents out of the game.”

Bardella as Le Pen’s strongest successor candidate

According to a survey of approximately 1,000 people conducted on Monday by the research and consulting group Elabe, 57% of respondents said the verdict against Le Pen was “normal” given the allegations against her.

The poll indicated that 89% of RN voters considered it unfair, while majorities among supporters of other parties deemed it fair.

Over 80% of voters for the New Popular Front (NFP) and Macron’s Ensemble party stated they did not believe the ruling against Le Pen was “political.”

A majority of 68% also felt it was fair for the ban to apply immediately, before appeals are concluded.

Nearly 90% of RN voters argued that Jordan Bardella is the best candidate to succeed Le Pen.

A few months ago, while the case against Le Pen was peaking, Bardella faced accusations of “betrayal” from some RN supporters for touring cities to promote his own book.

Bardella is emerging as a potential leader who could gain acceptance across Europe, seen as young and more “liberal,” unburdened by the political legacy of the Le Pen family.

Bardella frequented La Cave Saint-Germain bar, whose regulars over the years included Sarah Knafo (now an MEP and member of the far-right Patriots for Europe group), Pierre Gentillet (now a commentator on the far-right CNews channel), and Alexandre Loubet (now an MP). It was there he formed his current inner circle within the RN, which includes MP Pierre-Romain Thionnet.

On paper at least, Bardella exhibits significant policy differences from his mentor, Marine Le Pen. For example, he publicly supports Ukraine in its war against Russia.

While Marine Le Pen represents the “social” wing of the French far-right, Bardella is pushing for the creation of a “Ministry of State Efficiency,” modeled after Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).