India defies US pressure as Russian oil imports hit multi-month highs

Despite sustained pressure from the United States, India is maintaining its intake of Russian crude oil, as geopolitical volatility in the Middle East complicates Washington’s efforts to isolate Moscow’s energy exports.

Attempts by US President Donald Trump over the past six months to compel India to halt its Russian oil purchases have largely failed to produce the intended results. In March, India nearly doubled its imports of Russian crude compared to February, signaling a clear intent to sustain supply levels despite diplomatic friction.

Executives at leading Indian refineries told Bloomberg they anticipate an extension of a US sanctions waiver that is set to expire within days. However, officials noted that even if the waiver is not renewed, a reduction in purchases remains unlikely due to a scarcity of alternative sources in the global market.

Imports reach highest levels since June 2023

Throughout March, India offloaded approximately one-third of the volume held in tankers typically used as floating storage, purchasing a total of 60 million barrels of oil from Russia. Daily average imports reached 1.98 million barrels, the highest level recorded since June 2023.

Earlier this year, when daily imports hovered just above 1 million barrels in January and February, analysts predicted that Russia’s customer base in India would eventually shrink to include only Nayara Energy—a refiner controlled by Rosneft that is already under European Union sanctions.

The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and subsequent regional developments have fundamentally altered that trajectory. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who last summer accused India of profiting from Russian raw materials and providing Moscow with foreign exchange, granted India a one-month authorization on March 5 to continue its purchases. On March 12, Bessent expanded the scope of this permission to include other nations.

Prices surge following Strait of Hormuz crisis

Vandana Hari, founder of the Singapore-based consultancy Vanda Insights, characterized New Delhi’s strategy as an effort to secure all available supply. “India is pulling in all the Russian oil it can get,” Hari said, adding that she expects India to maximize Russian imports as long as shipments from the Persian Gulf remain constrained.

Prior to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Russian oil was sold at significant discounts—over $10 per barrel upon delivery and more than $30 at Russian ports, excluding transport costs. Currently, however, the price of Russian oil at Indian ports has surpassed $100 per barrel. At times, Russian crude is trading at a premium relative to Brent crude benchmarks.

In April, India’s daily average imports moderated to 1.57 million barrels, a decline attributed primarily to scheduled technical maintenance at the Nayara Energy refinery. Senior executives at Indian firms emphasized that shipment volumes are expected to return to an upward trend in May.