India intel push on China risks dangerous miscalculation, study says

A Chinese scholar has warned that Indian intelligence agencies increasingly treating China’s routine activities as threats raises the risk that New Delhi could miscalculate and adopt “unilateral countermeasures” against Beijing.

According to Zhao Ruoxi, a researcher at the Macau University of Science and Technology, India stepped up its intelligence-gathering operations following the deterioration of relations with neighbouring China in recent years.

Zhao made the assessment in an article analysing Indian intelligence operations targeting China across the 2020–2026 period. The study was published in the 31 July issue of the Chinese-language Journal of Intelligence, issued by the Shaanxi Information Institute of Science and Technology, and reported by the South China Morning Post.

According to Zhao, China’s political and economic presence in South Asia, its emphasis on emerging technologies, and its naval activities in the Indian Ocean have been monitored more closely by India since a 2020 border clash.

In that clash in the Galwan Valley, 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers were killed, dragging relations between the two countries to one of their lowest points in history.

Zhao noted that India has expanded its intelligence collection tools in recent years, drawing on space-based reconnaissance systems, drone surveillance, and cyber intelligence to establish a multi-agency network targeting China.

According to the article, India has also cooperated with the US and Middle Eastern nations to enhance its capacity to track Chinese naval operations in distant waters and exert informational pressure along Beijing’s maritime energy supply routes.

However, Zhao described India’s heavy reliance on foreign-sourced data as a “structural weakness”, arguing that it leaves New Delhi’s assessments of China vulnerable to the strategic agendas of third parties.

Zhao observed that while relations between Beijing and New Delhi began to improve in late 2024, India’s expanded intelligence activities directed at China have persisted.

The two countries took steps to mend ties after reaching an agreement in 2024 on resuming border patrols. Direct flights resumed after a five-year hiatus, Beijing once again permitted Indian pilgrims to visit the Tibet Autonomous Region, and India resumed issuing visas to Chinese tourists.

Last year, in another sign of easing tensions, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited China for the first time in seven years. In his meeting with Modi in Tianjin, Chinese President Xi Jinping said border issues should not define bilateral relations.

Following the reopening of the Lipulekh Pass in June, which Beijing viewed as a goodwill gesture, the two countries also resumed cross-border trade in August through the Himalayan passes of Nathu La and Shipki La.

In the article, Zhao stated that India is expected to ramp up technical surveillance in border areas, which will compel China to bolster its information security.

Zhao also warned that New Delhi could “systematically disrupt” Beijing’s diplomatic engagements with its South Asian neighbours, particularly its efforts to build regional trust and advance projects under the Belt and Road Initiative.

According to Zhao, the expansion of India’s intelligence operations against China heightens the risk of miscalculation, as routine Chinese activities are increasingly perceived as threats.

“As a result, the likelihood of triggering unilateral countermeasures increases,” Zhao assessed.

Zhao said China must make its strategic messaging more effective and reinforce communication with South Asian states and Indian Ocean littoral nations to counter this pressure.