Indian Expert Tells Harici: ‘U.S. Pressure Could Draw India Even Closer to Russia’

Indian foreign policy expert Robinder Sachdev told Harici: “India is clearly showing that it will not bow to external pressure and will instead pursue an inward-looking policy to build greater economic power and global influence.”

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has long been threatening India over its purchase of oil from Russia, has announced an additional 25% tariff against the country. This brings the total customs duty rate to 50%. While everyone wondered whether New Delhi would back down, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that he was “eagerly looking forward” to hosting Russian leader Vladimir Putin in India. It was also reported in the press that India had halted its arms procurement process from the United States. In addition to defense ties, India has been Russia’s largest crude oil buyer for the past two and a half years. On the other hand, Modi—who also enjoys a “warm” relationship with the U.S. President—has been referred to by Trump as “my friend.”

New Delhi’s relations with Russia, Trump’s customs tariffs announced under his “America First” slogan, and Washington’s increasingly close ties with Pakistan threaten bilateral relations. How will India respond to all this? Will it stop buying Russian oil? Could relations with Washington reach the breaking point? How will the country’s economy be affected by the customs duties?

Robinder Sachdev, founder and president of the Indian think tank Imagindia Institute and one of India’s leading foreign policy experts, shared his assessment with Harici.

How was Trump’s tariff and threat of sanctions received by Indian public opinion ?

The announcement, last week, of a 25% tariff on all Indian exports, coupled with an additional 25% penalty, announced yesterday, specifically targeting India’s continued imports of Russian oil—effectively raising the total tariff burden to 50%—has been met in India with a mix of shock, dismay, and growing defiance against America.

Across Indian media, academic circles, and political commentary, the move has triggered strong reactions. While there is broad concern about the economic fallout, the government has pledged support for affected sectors and is exploring ways to diversify India’s export markets. At the same time, there is a visible rise in nationalist sentiment and calls for economic self-reliance, as many perceive the tariff escalation not just as a trade measure, but as a challenge to India’s strategic and geopolitical autonomy.

However, there is no denying that Prime Minister Modi is facing domestic criticism, including from sections of the media and political opposition, for being caught off guard. Many are questioning how a leader he publicly called a “friend” could impose such sweeping penalties while appearing indifferent to India’s concerns. The perception that India is being penalized despite its past alignment with the U.S. on several key issues has added a layer of political discomfort for the Modi government.

Amid this backdrop, there is also a growing conversation about what India can do internally to strengthen its economic resilience. At the Imagindia Institute, we have proposed declaring a one-year national economic emergency accompanied by a temporary six-day workweek, a policy that could potentially increase GDP by up to 2% through enhanced productivity and mobilization. The proposal is being widely, and hotly, debated in India.

In essence, while the tariffs have triggered alarm, they are also fueling a renewed narrative of strategic defiance, national self-confidence, and long-term recalibration. India is signaling clearly that it will not yield to external coercion—and instead is looking inward to build greater economic strength and global leverage.

Why do you think Trump is targeting Modi — someone he once called a “friend”?

I do not think that President Trump is personally targeting Prime Minister Modi. Trump’s tariff and sanctions policies are part of a broader, transactional worldview that applies equally to allies and adversaries. The initial 25% tariff on Indian exports was likely a negotiating tactic, aimed at long-standing U.S. frustrations with India’s restricted market access in agriculture, dairy, and digital commerce.

The additional 25% penalty, however, is more strategic—it targets India’s continued purchase of Russian oil, aligning with Trump’s aim to cut off Russia’s revenue streams. Moreover, Trump’s references to penalizing BRICS members suggest discomfort with India’s growing engagement in alternative geopolitical and economic blocs.

While Trump may still describe Modi as a “very good friend,” his policy approach is clear: under the “America First” doctrine, no relationship is immune from pressure if it’s seen to conflict with U.S. interests. In this case, friendship has limits, and strategic divergence carries consequences.

Will India give up or restrict its imports of Russian oil? How would that affect India–Russia relations?

In my view, it seems that at present India has signaled that it will not reduce its imports of Russian oil. Both the government and public opinion strongly support the country’s right to pursue an independent energy policy, and defiance of American penalties. Any perceived retreat under U.S. pressure would be politically costly at home and reputationally damaging abroad.

That said, India may consider tactical adjustments—such as diversifying suppliers, tweaking payment mechanisms, or altering trade routes—but a complete rollback of Russian oil purchases is unlikely. If the standoff with the U.S. intensifies, it may actually strengthen India–Russia ties. Continued energy cooperation could expand into deeper collaboration in defense, nuclear energy, and multilateral coordination—particularly within platforms like BRICS, the SCO, and the Global South. Ironically, greater American pressure may push India closer to Moscow, not further away.

How will sanctions affect the Indian economy? Is a new farmers’ uprising likely?

A theoretical economic analysis says that a 50% tariff on Indian exports to the U.S. could be deeply disruptive. India currently exports nearly $90 billion annually to the U.S., and such steep tariffs could slash that figure by $40–50 billion. Using a widely accepted employment multiplier, this could impact up to 4 million jobs, especially in labor-intensive sectors like textiles, gems, and light manufacturing.

Even a 25% tariff could result in a $20–25 billion loss and 2–2.5 million affected jobs, making the consequences significant regardless of the final rate. In addition to trade contraction, India could face reduced investor confidence and broader economic headwinds.

As for a farmers’ uprising, that is unlikely. In fact, Indian farmers largely support the government’s refusal to open sensitive sectors like agriculture and dairy to U.S. competition. If anything, these developments reinforce their support for policies that protect domestic agriculture.

While economic pain is inevitable if sanctions persist, the political fallout is more likely to manifest in anti-U.S. rhetoric, and also some anti-Modi rhetoric, but not rural unrest.

How might these developments impact India–U.S. relations in the medium and long term?

These developments have undeniably disrupted the positive trajectory of India–U.S. relations, particularly since Trump returned to office in January 2025. While the bilateral partnership is rooted in decades of strategic alignment—including milestones like the civil nuclear agreement—this is now a moment of recalibration.

In the short to medium term, trust will be strained. The return of a narrative—that America is not a dependable partner—is again gaining traction in Indian discourse. This perception had faded over the past two decades, but recent U.S. actions risk reviving it.

However, India is unlikely to overreact. Instead, it will assert its strategic autonomy, knowing that the U.S. respects strength. If managed prudently, this could lead to a more mature, balanced, and realistic long-term partnership—one based on mutual interests, not sentimentality.

Ultimately, much depends on how the issues of tariffs, Russian oil, and multilateral alignments play out in the coming months. The India–U.S. relationship is unlikely to break, but India will emerge from this period more cautious, self-assured, and accelerating its multipolarity.