As we say goodbye to 2024 and hello to 2025, let us sum up India’s 2024 and make predictions for 2025.
The last thing I want to say about the summary is that it is also a glimpse of India’s world in 2025: Delhi’s relations with Russia are resilient, with the US cautiously optimistic and with China hopeful, while relations with Pakistan are characterized by indifference and with Bangladesh by anxiety. Relations with Canada are characterized by complacency.
One of the most important developments in Indian diplomacy in 2024 was Prime Minister Modi’s two visits to Russia – once in August for the annual summit and then in October for the BRICS summit. Modi’s first visit to Russia since the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022, which was closely watched by the West, showed the world how close Delhi’s relationship with Moscow had become.
Another was Modi’s visit to Ukraine. This was the first visit by an Indian prime minister not only since the 2022 war, but also since Ukraine’s independence in 1991. Declaring that the solution could not be found on the battlefield and recommending dialogue and diplomacy, Delhi was present as a neutral actor in both Russia and Ukraine while Moscow conveyed its messages to Kyiv, once again demonstrating its balanced position in world affairs and its own will to maneuver…
And third, India and China are talking peace. After a gap of more than four years, Chinese leaders Xi and Modi met in Kazan. While this is a boost for confidence-building measures, fundamental differences remain. However, both countries are working with patient diplomacy and cautious optimism. Further steps are expected in 2025…
In 2024, Delhi’s relations with the US are marked by India’s alleged involvement in the Pannun (Sikh separatist/Khalistan advocate) assassination plot. Relations with the Democrats in Washington don’t seem to be on a good trajectory, but with the Trump presidency looming – despite the tariff issue – hopes are high…
Speaking of India and America, the Quad – America, India, Japan, and Australia – continues to grow. The Delaware summit showed that the group continues to grow, with concrete actions being taken. The Quad Moonshot Cancer Initiative, the Quad Ship Observation Mission at Sea 2025, and artificial intelligence to tackle climate change are key outcomes. Meanwhile, India will host the Quad Summit in 2025.
Relations with Trudeau’s Canada have officially hit rock bottom. India recalled its ambassador and expelled Canadian diplomats as relations soured over allegations of foreign interference by the Trudeau government. Relations are unlikely to change as Trudeau is in Ottawa, which is currently in political turmoil as his government counts down the days to the 2025 election…
And the fall of Dhaka has caused Delhi a lot of trouble. In Bangladesh, the Hasina government fell, and the Yunus regime took power as an interim government. Delhi had always invested in the Hasina government, but now relations with Delhi are seen through the lens of domestic politics and anti-India sentiments are rising from Dhaka. Delhi remains concerned about anti-Hindu violence, while exaggerating the situation. Moreover, while Delhi is hosting Hasina in India, the interim government led by Yunus wants her back for trial. But I think Delhi will definitely not give Hasina back (and if it does, it will come as a surprise to me at least). So, India-Bangladesh relations are on a very difficult path for now…
And Pakistan; cricket diplomacy with Pakistan is over. In another critical development in 2024, what had been the barometer of India-Pakistan relations has officially come to an end. India has said that negotiations and terrorism cannot go together and has burned bridges. There is little hope for an improvement in relations.
Another important development is the recovery of relations with the Maldives. 2024 began with relations at an all-time low but ended on a positive note because of patient diplomacy on both sides. Maldivian President Muizzu has visited Delhi twice. And India remains an important development partner…
And in the final development of 2024 for Delhi, Modi’s visit to Kuwait on 21-22 December; the first trip by an Indian Prime Minister to Kuwait since 1981. (Indira Gandhi was the last Indian prime minister to visit Kuwait 43 years ago.) This visit was the last of a year-long Gulf tour that began in February 2024 with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Historically, India has been one of Kuwait’s largest trading partners. And Kuwait remains an important source of oil for India, ranking as the ninth-largest supplier, providing about 3 per cent of the country’s energy needs in 2024. Moreover, the Indian community is one of the largest expatriate communities in Kuwait, with a population of about five million; about one million Indians living in Kuwait make up 21 per cent of the total population and about 30 per cent of the total workforce.
In summary, Delhi is focused on strong Russian-American relations and peace with China, with a full-throttle Go East policy focused on Southeast Asia, Japan and the Korean peninsula, and in the Middle East, with a focus on the Gulf, stable Iranian relations and strong, healthy and dynamic Israeli relations, while African relations remain weak despite the articulation of the African Union and the transformation of the G-20 into the G-21.
