Is Germany preparing for war by reinstating conscription?

The German army has been trying to increase its personnel in recent years amid rhetoric of war with Russia. Although the goal is to soon raise the current number of 180,000 soldiers to 200,000, even this figure is insufficient to meet NATO’s growing defense demands.

According to Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, the actual number needed is 260,000. To reach this target, he has proposed a new military service model primarily based on volunteerism.

He aims to attract young people to the army with financial incentives, better working conditions, and modern advertising campaigns. But will this be enough? If not, the reinstatement of compulsory military service, suspended in 2011, could be on the table.

Polls show that a majority of Germans are receptive to this idea. However, the issue is far more complex than it appears.

A race against time: Will the hybrid model be enough?

The new model proposed by Pistorius has a hybrid structure. While volunteerism is prioritized, the door to compulsory service is left ajar in case the targets are not met.

Although this seems like a logical step at first glance, the main criticism concerns timing. The time required to see and evaluate whether the volunteer system works could be one to two years, or even more.

However, neither Germany nor other NATO countries have that much time to wait.

Germany’s massive personnel needs in numbers

So, how many soldiers does Germany actually need? According to NATO’s current war plans, Germany is expected to have a force of 260,000 active-duty soldiers and approximately 200,000 reservists by 2035.

Considering the current 181,000 active-duty soldiers and an estimated reservist count of around 60,000 at best, the magnitude of the target is clear.

The admission by former Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer of the Green Party that abolishing compulsory military service was a mistake, and the fact that three-quarters of the public supports its reintroduction in polls, raises questions about why politicians are so hesitant.

The impasse created by constitutional hurdles and generational differences

This is rooted in both legal and political obstacles. A simple majority in parliament is sufficient to reactivate the old, suspended law. However, that law only applied to men.

How fair would a compulsory military service be under today’s conditions if it excluded women? If women are to be included, it would require a constitutional amendment, and achieving this with the current parliamentary arithmetic is nearly impossible.

Furthermore, the reliability of the poll results is debatable. Yes, there appears to be general support, but when broken down by age groups, it becomes clear that those who support conscription are mostly older individuals who would not be affected. The younger generations are much more divided on the issue.

Will women also be conscripted?

Who should a potential compulsory military service cover? The idea that women should also share this responsibility in 2025 is gaining increasing acceptance. Pistorius’s proposal takes a tentative step in this direction by stipulating that women can also answer the distributed questionnaires “on a voluntary basis.”

However, the fact that it is not mandatory for women to respond fuels the debate on equality.

On the other hand, while it is logical for this service to primarily target young people, it seems inevitable that older age groups will also have to be part of the equation, especially considering the need for reserve personnel.

Germany’s ability to meet these personnel targets will directly affect its position within NATO. While the procurement of equipment and materials has been discussed for years, the importance of the personnel who will use this equipment was long overlooked in the Zeitenwende, or “turning point,” discussions.

The math doesn’t lie: Volunteerism alone is insufficient

However, it seems mathematically unlikely that a system based on volunteerism can reach the target of 260,000 soldiers.

Although the proposal includes a minor compulsory element, such as the requirement for men to respond to the questionnaires, the system is fundamentally based on volunteerism.

Therefore, it is anticipated that politicians will eventually have to introduce stronger compulsory elements.

What can be done to make the German army more attractive in the meantime? Steps like social media campaigns and raising salaries to around 2,000 euros are important.

But one of the most critical issues is infrastructure. The poor conditions in the barracks, which have been highlighted in reports for years, need urgent improvement. Without modern and livable barracks, attracting young people to the army will be very difficult.

Starting from scratch: The infrastructure problem with conscription

If compulsory military service is reinstated, one of the biggest challenges will again be infrastructure. There are not enough barracks, trainers, or recruitment offices to house, train, and direct the thousands of new soldiers. These systems need to be built from scratch or modernized.

Sweden is often cited as an example in this context. However, the Swedish model is often misunderstood in Germany. Sweden has compulsory military service, but because the number of people willing to serve voluntarily meets the demand, very few individuals are conscripted each year. Germany’s current plan does not fully align with this model.

Finally, alongside all these military preparations, an important question is how prepared the civilian population is for a crisis or war. Germany is still at the beginning of this journey.

Defense Minister Pistorius had stated, “We must be ready for war by 2029.” Although this date is based on intelligence assessments, it is uncertain whether this goal can be achieved, given the shortfalls in both personnel and equipment.

While the return of compulsory military service in the near future seems like a logical necessity, how quickly the political will to take this step will materialize remains a major question.