The Russia-Ukraine war, which has been ongoing since February 2022, continues uninterruptedly and without a ceasefire. While the West’s support for Ukraine against Russia continues, the European Union (EU) implemented its 14th sanctions decision against Russia. On the other hand, with the expansion of Russian sanctions to new areas, the military and material support of the USA and Western countries to Ukraine continues. Ukrainian Defense Minister and other state officials, who were in contact with the USA before the NATO Summit last week, increased their support and announced providing new financial aid. The US officials announced they will provide Ukraine with 2.4 billion dollars of aid in the coming period. Considering the ten-year security agreement signed between the USA and Ukraine in recent weeks, this ongoing aid is essential for Ukraine. As can be seen, the Russia-Ukraine War seems far from over. However, not every country has the same approach to the West’s Russia policy. Hungary comes first among these. Despite all the anti-Russian sanctions and policies, Hungary, like Türkiye, did not pause its relations with Russia. With this in mind, the question arises: can a possible ceasefire be achieved with the initiative of Hungary, which holds the EU term presidency?
Orban and the EU Relations
The rise of the far right in Europe is a concern, with Hungary considered one of its strongholds. Victor Orban, the leader of the Fidesz party, has been in power in Hungary since 2010. Orban is closely associated with the far right and has maintained a Eurosceptic approach towards the EU. Some view this approach as a tactic to gain populist support, but Hungary’s collaborations and relations with Russia suggest it goes beyond a mere political strategy. Hungary has taken a stand against the sanctions imposed on Russia and has maintained its relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, even during the Ukrainian War.
Orban, the figurehead of the far right, is mirroring Russia in his domestic political strategies in Hungary. His anti-LGBT stance and the right-wing ideology rooted in traditional family values are not just attention-grabbing, but also carry significant implications. These approaches not only pit the EU and globalization supporters against ‘us’, but also cast immigrants as ‘them’, intensifying the ‘us-them’ war narrative.
Significantly, there has been a seismic shift in Hungary’s approach to the EU, particularly in recent times. Post-2022 elections, Orban appears to have pivoted towards a strategy of reforming the EU, rather than fostering EU skepticism. His calls for the EU to reconsider its support for Ukraine and revise its immigration policies carry substantial implications. Notably, Orban not only critiques the EU’s decisions on aid to Ukraine, but also actively seeks to impede them.
Equally significant is the EU’s response to Orban’s actions. As is well-known, Hungary assumed the EU term presidency, sparking intense debate within the EU. In 2023, the EP raised concerns about Hungary’s commitment to democracy and the rule of law, questioning its suitability for the 2024 EU term Presidency. Despite these criticisms, Hungary assumed the EU term presidency for six months, during the first days of which Orban embarked on his ‘Peace Mission’ visits. This marked a crucial step in Orban’s efforts to shape and influence the EU’s agenda.
Orban and the New Mediator Role
Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine War, Türkiye has taken important initiatives to end this conflict between the two countries. Within the scope of Türkiye’s mediator role, Russian and Ukrainian delegations met at the Antalya Diplomatic Forum in 2022 and immediately afterwards at the Presidential Dolmabahçe Office, but no results were obtained. Türkiye did not finalize the steps to achieve mediation after these initiatives. It also assumed the most crucial role in resolving the problems between the West and Russia. Undoubtedly, the grain enterprise corridor is one of these notable examples. In order to prevent the global food crisis, Türkiye committed to safely transporting grain from Russia through Black Sea. However, Moscow especially criticized the West because the grain was not transported to the countries in need and that it provided support to Ukraine. Thus, last year, this initiative ended with the reservations expressed by Russia.
On the other hand, Türkiye was the only country that could come together with Russia as a NATO member. The 24th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is undoubtedly the most critical example. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Putin held bilateral meetings at the summit. Although positive statements were made during these meetings, there were negative remarks in the background about Türkiye’s role as a mediator in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. . Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov stated that President Erdoğan cannot be a mediator. The reason for this was Kyiv’s refusal to negotiate any negotiations. But why only Kiev’s refusal?
At this point, Orban’s visits in his search for peace should be considered. As is known, after the EU term Presidency, Orban quickly travelled to Kyiv and met with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy. During this meeting, Orban asked Zelenskiy to consider a swift ceasefire. Shortly after the Ukraine trip, Orban visited Moscow. In his meeting with Putin, Orban brought up the ceasefire. Of course, this ceasefire also had subtexts on the EU-Russian relations.
For this reason, Orban stated that in his meetings with Putin, they also talked about the security architecture of Europe. Although Orban emphasizes that he did not receive authority from Europe, especially within the scope of his criticism of the EU’s visit to Russia, the EU’s agenda is changing slowly in the background. One of these examples is Orban’s other visit to the Organization of Turkic States summit. Orban attended the Summit as an observer but faced significant criticism from the EU three. These concerns have emerged because Hungary is currently serving as the EU term representative on a platform where the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is also represented. This is because Hungary is present as the EU term representative on a platform where the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is represented, and concerns have arisen regarding the legitimation of this. As with Russia, Brussels reacted to Cyprus and stated that Orban does not represent the EU. Orban’s last visit was to China. In addition to trade relations with China, the main issue was “Peace Mission 3.0”, as Orban shared on social media. During this visit, Orban met with the President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping and discussed peace and a ceasefire. The view that a ceasefire and a political solution would be in the interest of all parties was expressed.
It has been reported that the final part of this personal diplomatic effort initiated by Orban to secure peace between Russia and Ukraine will involve the USA. This meeting is crucial before the NATO Summit on July 10-11. NATO, a critical player in the international security for 75 years, has garnered significant attention due to its role and influence, especially in the context of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and its recent expansion efforts.
Orban’s peace initiative, with its two aspects, is already causing a potential shift in the EU security agenda. The outcome of this peace mission, particularly without the support of the EU and Ukraine, remains uncertain. However, Orban’s pursuit of peace is already reshaping the EU security agenda, marking a potential shift in the dynamics of the region.
The second aspect is related to NATO’s security dimension. Unlike the EU, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has announced that a meeting with Orban will take place at the Washington Summit to discuss the results of his recent visits. Although permanent peace is yet to be achieved, Orban’s peace mediation could bring about a crucial step towards a ceasefire, offering a ray of hope in the ongoing conflict.
