Israel prepares for long war in Lebanon as Hezbollah strikes deepen and death toll tops 400

Sources speaking to the Financial Times have revealed that Israel is preparing for a sustained military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon — one that would proceed regardless of how the parallel confrontation with Iran ultimately unfolds.

“Israeli officials are preparing international actors for the possibility that the war with Hezbollah could be protracted and outlast any conflict with Iran,” the sources said, adding that France has offered support for the disarmament of Hezbollah and that diplomatic efforts to forestall a broader Israeli operation remain ongoing.

One source familiar with the matter indicated that Tel Aviv had begun making this calculation even before Hezbollah fired its first rocket salvo on March 2. Reports published last year had already noted that military escalation plans targeting Lebanon were being kept in a state of readiness.

Death toll surpasses 400 as occupation expands

The number of fatalities from Israeli strikes has exceeded 400 since Hezbollah opened this front roughly a week ago. The Israeli government has called for the occupation of wider areas of southern Lebanon as part of the ground operation launched earlier this month, with fighting between the two sides continuing at high intensity across the region.

Israeli state broadcaster KAN reported that Tel Aviv is weighing the option of expanding what it designates its “security belt” — a line encompassing a series of hills and strategic positions on Lebanese territory that Israeli forces have continued to hold despite the ceasefire declared in November 2024.

Beirut seeks dialogue; Tel Aviv shuts the door

The Lebanese government publicly declared that it has banned Hezbollah’s military activities, demanded the group’s immediate disarmament, and called for direct negotiations with Israel.

Tel Aviv has rejected all of Beirut’s diplomatic overtures. The report further emphasized that Washington has similarly declined to accept the Lebanese government’s proposals, citing Hezbollah’s failure to disarm over the past year as the central impediment.

These developments are unfolding at a moment when Iran has refused ceasefire talks with both the US and Israel, and as Iran and Hezbollah have intensified their coordinated missile strikes.

Merkava tanks struck; satellite facility damaged

An Israeli satellite facility near Jerusalem was reported damaged in a Hezbollah strike carried out on Monday. The Lebanese movement has since announced a series of new operations, with clashes against Israeli ground forces in southern Lebanon continuing without pause.

Hezbollah declared that it had targeted several Merkava tanks in recent days — a claim Tel Aviv partially acknowledged by confirming the deaths of two Israeli soldiers. An early Tuesday morning statement reported that Hezbollah fighters had ambushed Israeli units on the southern outskirts of the town of Khiyam, striking three tanks directly.

Two-front war strains the limits of Israeli military capacity

Assessments appearing in the Israeli press suggest that the army’s capacity to prosecute two simultaneous wars is being pushed to its limits.

The newspaper Maariv argued that the Israel Defense Forces are not prepared to wage concurrent wars against both Hezbollah and Iran. The paper’s war correspondent, Avi Ashkenazi, described the military as “a relatively small force with limited resources,” asserting that managing two active fronts — each consuming thousands of munitions daily — is not feasible under present conditions.

The report also underscored that the tempo of Hezbollah’s rocket and drone attacks has been steadily escalating.

A source speaking to the Jerusalem Post stated that Israeli assessments characterize Hezbollah’s operations not as a short-term provocation but as an element of a long-range strategy designed to attrite Israeli forces and fundamentally alter the military balance on the northern front. Israeli officials, the source added, are raising this assessment with increasing frequency.