Israel redraws lines of influence in southern Syria amid Suweida clashes

In the southern Syrian city of Suweida, local groups have re-entered the conflict and regained control of most of the city following massacres, looting, and destruction by forces affiliated with the Ministries of Defense and Interior, who had entered the city after Druze sheikhs accepted a ceasefire.

Israel responded with airstrikes to an attack launched with heavy weapons by forces affiliated with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) administration, forcing them to withdraw.

Massacres and looting by HTS forces

After the Druze sheikhs agreed to halt the fighting, HTS-affiliated forces entered Suweida and, within hours, engaged in massacres, looting, destruction, and insults.

These forces documented their actions and published them on social media, causing tensions to rise again in the city and prompting local groups to return to the battlefield.

In response to these developments, the Ministry of Defense sent reinforcements, including tanks and heavy armored vehicles, and targeted some neighborhoods with mortars and drones.

However, Israel declared the presence of heavy weapons in southern Syria “unacceptable” and launched airstrikes. These attacks forced the units affiliated with the Ministry of Defense to retreat.

Following this, the HTS administration announced in two separate statements, issued through the Ministries of Defense and Interior, that Public Security and Military Police forces would be dispatched to the region to combat local groups, which it described as “outlaw groups.”

Civilians executed in public squares

During the clashes, it was reported that more than 20 civilians were summarily executed. Some of these executions took place during a raid on the Al-Ridwan guest house, while others were carried out in public squares.

Three brothers were reportedly killed in a public square in front of their mother. Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, the leader of the opposition movement against the new Syrian administration, stated that he had been forced to make the previous ceasefire announcement under pressure and called on the people of Suweida to continue the fight.

With Israeli airstrikes removing heavy weapons from the equation, the conflict turned into street fighting, where local groups secured control over most of the city.

Video recordings released by HTS-affiliated elements documented attacks on the elderly and field executions. The fact that a member of the Military Police unit, which the Ministry of Defense announced was deployed to “prevent looting and violations,” was seen continuing his duties despite being previously filmed assaulting a citizen, raised serious questions about the new administration’s ability to control the situation and prevent crimes.

The head of the administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, had previously declared that anyone who commits a violation, regardless of their rank, would be punished.

Israel’s intervention and secret diplomacy

The attack by HTS-affiliated forces began with a call for “mobilization,” reminiscent of the massacres in which hundreds were killed on the Syrian coast under the pretext of “fighting the remnants of the old regime.”

This time, the pretext of “fighting outlaw groups” paved the way for sectarian anger against the Druze. This manifested in widespread looting, arson, and destruction that targeted numerous guest houses, homes, and shops, as well as the Mar Mikhail Church in the town of al-Sura al-Kabira.

Israel’s intervention, under the pretext of “protecting the Druze,” resulted in the deaths of dozens of HTS-affiliated militiamen who found themselves in the line of fire. This intervention occurred despite previously leaked information indicating that Israel had agreed to allow government forces to enter Suweida.

It was alleged that this approval was given during a meeting between Ahmed al-Sharaa and the US Special Representative for Syria, Thomas Barrack, and during a meeting in Baku between a Syrian delegation, which included Suweida and Daraa’s Head of Internal Security Ahmed al-Dalati, and an Israeli delegation during al-Sharaa’s visit to Azerbaijan a few days earlier.

‘We will not allow a new Lebanon,’ says Netanyahu

Although statements from the US and Israel indicate some disagreements, developments on the ground reveal direct coordination between Washington and Tel Aviv.

While Barrack stated that Washington opposes the establishment of religious federal structures in Syria and supported HTS’s military operation in Suweida, Israel conducted airstrikes to thwart this operation.

In his statements to the Israeli media, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that the goal of the intervention was to create a demilitarized zone in southern Syria.

“We will not allow a return to a situation where a new Lebanon emerges in southern Syria,” Netanyahu said, directly refuting the claim of protecting the Druze.

Divided Druze leadership and an uncertain future

While local groups led by the Suweida Military Council, directly affiliated with Sheikh al-Hijri, control most of the city, mediation efforts are ongoing.

However, the movement of HTS-affiliated units suggests preparations for a new attack, with the ground being prepared by mortar and rocket strikes.

Israel’s Channel 12 television reported that Washington had asked Tel Aviv to stop its attacks in southern Syria and that Israel had promised to comply with this request.

This situation is interpreted as an agreed-upon “hit-and-run game” that could prolong the bloodshed between the parties. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights stated that of the nearly 200 people killed in the clashes, 21 were civilians who were executed on the ground.

Meanwhile, a division has emerged among the Druze sheikhs regarding a mechanism to stop the attack. While Sheikh al-Hijri insists on continuing the fight after the crimes committed, Sheikhs Hamoud al-Hanawi and Yusuf Jarbo are trying to reach an agreement that would allow forces affiliated with the new administration to enter the region with serious guarantees to prevent violations.

Speaking to Syria’s official news agency, SANA, Sheikh Jarbo said, “Our hope today is for the option of a state that protects all its citizens from any kind of attack and violation.”

Although Suweida appears to be resisting the new administration with the fighting will displayed by local militias, the final outcome of the situation remains dependent on the stance of the US and Israel and the power struggle between them.

This uncertainty could open the door for the return of HTS-affiliated units, including groups motivated by sectarianism, to Suweida.