Diplomacy
John Mearsheimer warns Trump’s Venezuela policy is pure imperialism, not the Monroe Doctrine
John J. Mearsheimer, the renowned international relations theorist and pioneer of offensive realism, recently appeared on Glenn Diesen’s YouTube program to provide a searing assessment of US foreign policy. The University of Chicago professor addressed the US approach to Venezuela, Donald Trump’s threats regarding Greenland, and the existential crisis currently facing NATO.
Not the Monroe Doctrine, but a case of imperialism
In evaluating whether the Trump administration’s stance on Venezuela aligns with US national interests, Mearsheimer offered a sharp distinction between historical policy and current actions.
“When discussing American interests in the Western Hemisphere, it is vital to understand the foundations of the Monroe Doctrine,” Mearsheimer explained. “The doctrine was designed to keep the militaries of other great powers out of the Western Hemisphere and ensure US hegemony here. However, this recent operation in Venezuela has nothing to do with the Monroe Doctrine. There is currently no threat of China or Russia establishing a military alliance with Venezuela or deploying military forces there. Therefore, this operation is not about the great power competition at the heart of the Monroe Doctrine; rather, I believe it is a textbook case of old-fashioned imperialism.”
Mearsheimer argued that this instance is purely about the US seeking to dictate Venezuela’s internal politics. “If you listen to President Trump, his primary concern is who controls Venezuela’s oil. He believes that Venezuelan oil is American oil and that he should decide how it is utilized. This is naked imperialism or neo-colonialism. It bears no relation to the Monroe Doctrine.”
Recalling the long history of US intervention in Latin America, Mearsheimer noted that what makes Trump’s actions particularly “audacious” compared to his predecessors is his refusal to justify them through diplomatic or liberal rhetoric. “Trump says quite clearly: we will run Venezuela, and Venezuela’s oil is our oil. In the past, the US attempted to mask its imperialist interventions in the Western Hemisphere with liberal or idealistic language. Trump feels no such need.”
Annexing Greenland would face little resistance
Mearsheimer indicated he would not be surprised if Trump moved to annex Greenland, noting that the administration is heavily focused on the exercise of military power. He observed that while Trump has launched strikes in seven countries since taking office, these have primarily been “pinprick” operations—bombing and withdrawing rather than maintaining a long-term presence. “In Venezuela, they believe they can solve the problem by kidnapping the president and appointing the vice president in his place,” Mearsheimer remarked.
Regarding Greenland, Mearsheimer asserted that the US military would face no difficulty in annexing the territory and emphasized that Europeans would be incapable of mounting a resistance. He noted that Trump holds little respect for European leaders, making it highly probable that he would pursue an annexation he views as “cheap” and easily achievable.
A fatal blow to the liberal international order
Mearsheimer described the support provided by the US and Europe to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the ongoing actions in Gaza as a “fatal blow” to the liberal international order. When viewed alongside the actions of the Trump era, Mearsheimer argued, it becomes clear just how deep a crisis the international system is currently facing.
Addressing why Europe has failed to challenge Trump, Mearsheimer offered a blunt explanation: “First and foremost, the Europeans want the US to remain in Europe, so they strive to maintain good relations. They are terrified by discussions of the US withdrawing its military presence or breaking away from NATO. They want to keep the US in Europe and preserve the integrity of NATO. European leaders believe the path to this is through appeasing Trump; therefore, even when he does something they oppose, they support him—they essentially kneel. What they fail to understand is that Trump is a bully; if you show weakness, he will slap you and treat you with contempt.”
NATO may remain in name only, losing all influence
Discussing the argument that the situation in Ukraine combined with a potential occupation of Greenland could fundamentally shake the NATO alliance, Mearsheimer suggested the following scenario: “The alliance might survive in name, but it will lose its efficacy and will no longer resemble the institution that existed between 1949 and 2025. In this case, NATO could become a mere shadow of its former self, leading to its ultimate ruin.”
Mearsheimer believes Europeans will do anything, however desperate, to prevent this outcome. Consequently, he predicts that if Trump were to move on Greenland, European leaders would swallow their pride and fail to offer any meaningful resistance.
Diplomacy
South Korea pulls part of embassy staff from Ukraine amid POW dispute
The South Korean government has decided to withdraw part of its embassy staff from Ukraine.
According to the Yonhap news agency, Foreign Ministry spokesman Park Doo-sun cited the Kyiv administration’s failure to take “positive steps” in the dispute that began with the leak of information concerning the handover of North Korean prisoners of war as the justification for the move.
The spokesman also listed the ongoing threat of air strikes, which complicates the safety of diplomats, among the reasons.
Following the withdrawal of part of the personnel, essential diplomatic contacts will continue under the leadership of the charge d’affaires ad interim to Ukraine. All consular staff tasked with protecting South Korean citizens will remain in Ukraine.
Prior to this move, the Seoul administration decided on 8 October to withdraw its ambassador. The Foreign Ministry stated at the time that it was ready to continue consultations with Kyiv to resolve the emerging issues constructively.
Tensions between the two countries began with a speech delivered by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations General Assembly in September.
Zelenskyy announced that two captured soldiers from the North Korean army had been handed over to South Korea.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, meanwhile, accused Kyiv of breaching a confidentiality agreement.
Lee said the disclosure of this information endangered the prisoners’ families and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
Seoul expects a public apology
Dmytro Lytvyn, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, denied the existence of a confidentiality agreement.
The South Korean Foreign Ministry summoned Ukrainian Charge d’Affaires Andriy Veshkin on 28 September and issued a note of protest against Lytvyn’s remarks.
President Lee Jae-myung warned in a statement on 2 October that they would take additional measures against Kyiv if Ukrainian authorities did not acknowledge the agreement and make a public apology. Lee stated that Ukraine itself had initially requested that the transfer of the prisoners be kept confidential.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said the dispute stemmed from differing interpretations of the confidentiality regime.
Tykhyi noted that Seoul, based on its constitution which recognises the entire Korean Peninsula as its own territory, requested that the prisoners be handed over “like its own citizens”.
Describing the handover as a “gesture of goodwill”, Tykhyi stated that they were conducting closed-door negotiations to resolve differences of opinion.
Ambassador Park Ki-chang returned to Seoul on 10 October. According to a report by The Korea Times newspaper citing the ministry, recalling the ambassador served as a diplomatic protest against the leak of information regarding the prisoners.
The newspaper wrote that South Korea had last taken a similar step in 2008 by withdrawing its ambassador to Japan.
Moscow warned foreign diplomats
On 3 October, the Russian Foreign Ministry reiterated its warning to foreign nationals, including diplomatic mission staff, against remaining in Ukraine.
The ministry recalled its advice to leave Kyiv, citing ongoing strikes against military targets.
The ministry noted that those who failed to heed the warnings would bear responsibility for the potential consequences.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a statement on 24 September that they had no information regarding Kyiv handing over two North Korean prisoners of war to Seoul.
Peskov, noting that prisoner matters fall under the authority of the Defence Ministry and intelligence services, said, “Contacts through the special services are continuing.”
Diplomacy
Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry
August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.
Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.
Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.
According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.
The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.
This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.
Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals
According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.
The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.
Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.
Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.
Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe
The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.
Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.
Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.
The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.
Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.
In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.
In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.
In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.
Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.
Diplomacy
Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle
US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.
White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.
“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”
In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.
According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.
The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.
Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.
Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.
“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”
Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.
Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.
These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.
Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.
In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.
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