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Diplomacy

John Mearsheimer warns Trump’s Venezuela policy is pure imperialism, not the Monroe Doctrine

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John J. Mearsheimer, the renowned international relations theorist and pioneer of offensive realism, recently appeared on Glenn Diesen’s YouTube program to provide a searing assessment of US foreign policy. The University of Chicago professor addressed the US approach to Venezuela, Donald Trump’s threats regarding Greenland, and the existential crisis currently facing NATO.

Not the Monroe Doctrine, but a case of imperialism

In evaluating whether the Trump administration’s stance on Venezuela aligns with US national interests, Mearsheimer offered a sharp distinction between historical policy and current actions.

“When discussing American interests in the Western Hemisphere, it is vital to understand the foundations of the Monroe Doctrine,” Mearsheimer explained. “The doctrine was designed to keep the militaries of other great powers out of the Western Hemisphere and ensure US hegemony here. However, this recent operation in Venezuela has nothing to do with the Monroe Doctrine. There is currently no threat of China or Russia establishing a military alliance with Venezuela or deploying military forces there. Therefore, this operation is not about the great power competition at the heart of the Monroe Doctrine; rather, I believe it is a textbook case of old-fashioned imperialism.”

Mearsheimer argued that this instance is purely about the US seeking to dictate Venezuela’s internal politics. “If you listen to President Trump, his primary concern is who controls Venezuela’s oil. He believes that Venezuelan oil is American oil and that he should decide how it is utilized. This is naked imperialism or neo-colonialism. It bears no relation to the Monroe Doctrine.”

Recalling the long history of US intervention in Latin America, Mearsheimer noted that what makes Trump’s actions particularly “audacious” compared to his predecessors is his refusal to justify them through diplomatic or liberal rhetoric. “Trump says quite clearly: we will run Venezuela, and Venezuela’s oil is our oil. In the past, the US attempted to mask its imperialist interventions in the Western Hemisphere with liberal or idealistic language. Trump feels no such need.”

Annexing Greenland would face little resistance

Mearsheimer indicated he would not be surprised if Trump moved to annex Greenland, noting that the administration is heavily focused on the exercise of military power. He observed that while Trump has launched strikes in seven countries since taking office, these have primarily been “pinprick” operations—bombing and withdrawing rather than maintaining a long-term presence. “In Venezuela, they believe they can solve the problem by kidnapping the president and appointing the vice president in his place,” Mearsheimer remarked.

Regarding Greenland, Mearsheimer asserted that the US military would face no difficulty in annexing the territory and emphasized that Europeans would be incapable of mounting a resistance. He noted that Trump holds little respect for European leaders, making it highly probable that he would pursue an annexation he views as “cheap” and easily achievable.

A fatal blow to the liberal international order

Mearsheimer described the support provided by the US and Europe to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the ongoing actions in Gaza as a “fatal blow” to the liberal international order. When viewed alongside the actions of the Trump era, Mearsheimer argued, it becomes clear just how deep a crisis the international system is currently facing.

Addressing why Europe has failed to challenge Trump, Mearsheimer offered a blunt explanation: “First and foremost, the Europeans want the US to remain in Europe, so they strive to maintain good relations. They are terrified by discussions of the US withdrawing its military presence or breaking away from NATO. They want to keep the US in Europe and preserve the integrity of NATO. European leaders believe the path to this is through appeasing Trump; therefore, even when he does something they oppose, they support him—they essentially kneel. What they fail to understand is that Trump is a bully; if you show weakness, he will slap you and treat you with contempt.”

NATO may remain in name only, losing all influence

Discussing the argument that the situation in Ukraine combined with a potential occupation of Greenland could fundamentally shake the NATO alliance, Mearsheimer suggested the following scenario: “The alliance might survive in name, but it will lose its efficacy and will no longer resemble the institution that existed between 1949 and 2025. In this case, NATO could become a mere shadow of its former self, leading to its ultimate ruin.”

Mearsheimer believes Europeans will do anything, however desperate, to prevent this outcome. Consequently, he predicts that if Trump were to move on Greenland, European leaders would swallow their pride and fail to offer any meaningful resistance.

Diplomacy

EU pursues closer ties with Israel on space and air defence

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The EU is turning to Israel to bolster its new initiatives in high-tech air defence and space capabilities.

Shimrit Maman, head of the Israel Space Agency, travelled to Brussels this week and met on Tuesday with European Commissioner for Startups, Research and Innovation Ekaterina Zaharieva to discuss key sectors, including artificial intelligence and robotics.

The visit took place ahead of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s first major speech on space, scheduled for Thursday at a summit in Paris.

In the speech, Von der Leyen is expected to warn against mounting hostilities and emphasise the necessity of strengthening Europe’s presence in space.

“It’s very hard to do everything by yourself,” Maman told Politico, adding that the militarization of space is “already happening, it’s just we are not aware of the extent,” and noting that allies are showing growing interest in “dual-use” technologies intended for both civilian and defence purposes:

“One thing we’re working on is early-warning systems. For example, during the last wave [of missile attacks] with Iran, we saw this very clearly. How we were getting the alerts to all the civilians in Israel, and that made the casualties so low. This is part of the system. We’re working on a very holistic view, where you can alert in advance, the system alerts the citizens.”

Following several years of effective disengagement caused by political tensions surrounding the invasion of Gaza, the EU has recently begun forging closer military and technological ties with Israel through a series of agreements.

Competition from Washington and strategic rivalry with Moscow and Beijing have nevertheless underlined the requirement for allies possessing sophisticated industrial capacity.

In 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen backed calls by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to create an EU-funded air defence shield.

Three senior officials involved in the discussions said, however, that the plans stalled after officials in the Commission and several national capitals concluded that the project would require reliance on Israeli air defence technology, which was considered too sensitive one year into the Gaza conflict.

Yet Israel’s Rafael, which is expanding its European operations significantly, has now confirmed that it will open a factory to manufacture the Iron Dome air defence system at a former Volkswagen plant in Germany.

One week ago, Greece signed a 3 billion euro agreement with the Israel Ministry of Defense.

The deal provides for the establishment of a new multi-layered air defence network designed to shoot down drones, hostile jets, and rockets.

“We see everything integrating into this multi-layer defence approach,” Maman said, highlighting satellite imagery and artificial intelligence modelling as primary focal points for joint development efforts:

“I’m not only seeing defence as ballistic missiles from Iran… think about a fire, a flash flood or even a long drought… we have a proven track record, and we’re getting really good results.”

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Diplomacy

UK reassures US that new Israeli settlement sanctions are symbolic

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The UK has reportedly engaged in behind-the-scenes talks to avoid a backlash from the US over anti-Israel sanctions scheduled for announcement today.

According to a report by Bloomberg, Andy Burnham’s government is expected to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank today.

Burnham is seeking to pursue a firmer stance on an issue of high importance to the governing Labour Party, though one that risks angering US President Donald Trump.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband will unveil a new sanctions regime targeting Israel but limited to Jewish settlements in the West Bank, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Burnham and Trump spoke by telephone on Monday, the Prime Minister’s Office said. A statement noted that the two leaders discussed a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinian territories.

The discussion suggests that Burnham used the call to notify Trump that sanctions against Israel were imminent.

The proposals under review included a new sanctions regime with measures to block the exchange of goods and services with Israeli settlements.

Miliband also evaluated expanding existing human rights sanctions to encompass the blocking of aid, which has drawn criticism for exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The Foreign Secretary further considered explicitly endorsing the International Court of Justice’s non-binding 2024 opinion that declared Israel’s occupation of territory currently recognised by the UK as the State of Palestine to be unlawful.

Even so, UK officials fear the announcement could cause an early setback in Burnham’s relationship with Trump.

To defuse a backlash from the Trump administration, British diplomats privately informed the US that the sanctions are largely symbolic and will have no tangible impact on the UK’s broader trade or security ties with Israel, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

The proposals were drawn up after Israel decided to issue tenders for the construction of 1,200 settlement housing units in an area of the West Bank.

Disputes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians have intensified in recent months as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a difficult battle to retain his seat in a general election scheduled for 27 October.

Burnham joined the leaders of Canada and five European governments, including France, Germany, and Italy, in signing a statement that condemned the housing plan as “unacceptable” and urged Netanyahu to withdraw the tender.

In a separate statement, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz condemned a call by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir for “nightly assassinations” in Gaza.

Burnham is eager to demonstrate early to the Labour Party that he is adopting a more critical approach toward Israel than his predecessor, Keir Starmer.

Although Starmer hardened his stance against Israel during his two years in office, including by formally recognising the State of Palestine, his initial refusal to demand that Netanyahu halt military operations in Gaza divided the party.

This division led to a decline in Labour’s poll ratings and boosted electoral gains for the Green Party across the country.

Burnham’s return to Parliament last month led to Starmer’s resignation. Burnham apologised for Labour’s handling of Israel’s military operation in Gaza under his predecessor, stating that the party “did not adopt the right stance”.

Last month, Burnham’s new Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting, who faced intense competition from a Muslim independent candidate in his northeast London constituency at the last general election, stated that Israel had fallen “short” of international standards.

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee told the BBC’s “Newsday” programme that there would “undoubtedly” be a US response.

Accusing the Labour Party of “discriminating against the Israeli government”, Huckabee said: “It is like throwing a rock and not knowing where it lands. The UK is a sovereign country and can do as it pleases, but so is the US.”

Republican Florida Congressman Randy Fine also warned that British firms would be barred from doing business with local governments in the state if sanctions were imposed.

In a post on X, Fine said: “Florida has made its stance clear. Any company—or country—that boycotts Israel will be boycotted by Florida.”

Labour MPs and Jewish groups have warned the government that any sanctions against the settlements could amount to a “de facto boycott” of Israeli goods and compromise the safety of British Jews.

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Diplomacy

US drafts post-war Middle East strategy focused on Iran

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The US administration is working on a post-war strategy focused on containing Iran and expanding the normalisation of relations between Israel and its neighbours.

According to Axios, although the plan remains in the draft stage, it is intended to guide the US approach to the Middle East once the war with Iran concludes and across the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term in office.

Two major events cast a shadow over the planning process: the Israeli elections scheduled for 27 October and the US midterm elections in November.

US officials state that initial work on the strategy is being conducted both at senior political levels within the Trump administration and at an interagency working level.

According to sources, Trump has held two meetings with senior advisers in recent weeks where the plan was discussed and concepts were floated.

In private conversations, Trump reportedly said he is working on “something much bigger” in the Middle East following the war with Iran.

According to sources, three primary elements have been put forward as prospective components of the strategy:

Establishing a regional alliance among US allies, guaranteed by the US, in order to contain Iran.

Pursuing a joint effort to bring the regional fallout of the 7 October 2023 Al-Aqsa Flood operation toward a conclusion by securing the next phase of Trump’s Gaza plan, signing a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and implementing the Israel-Lebanon agreement.

Expanding the Abraham Accords and reaching a normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

The Trump administration hopes that the new Israeli government formed after the 27 October elections will be willing and able to cooperate on the post-war strategy.

However, some US officials emphasise that Trump will push for the implementation of this strategy regardless of the Israeli election results, even if the vote leads to political deadlock.

A source familiar with the process stated that drafting the strategy would take several more weeks. “They are working on it, but it is not finished yet,” the source said, adding:

“The aim here is to connect many moving parts in the region; how to build a regional alliance after the war. It is not yet clear whether all US allies in the region will participate in this process.”

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