Liberals secure victory in Canada, minority government likely

The Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, has reportedly won the early general election held in Canada on April 28.

According to CTV and CBS news channels, Carney retained his position as prime minister with this result, but his party is not expected to achieve a majority needed to form a government alone.

Although the final results have not yet been announced, CBS estimates that the Liberals will secure 158 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.

The main rival Conservative Party is projected to win 148 seats, the Bloc Québécois 25, and the New Democratic Party (NDP) 10 seats. A majority government in Canada requires 172 seats.

The decision for an early election was initiated by the 60-year-old Liberal Party leader Mark Carney, who succeeded Justin Trudeau after his resignation.

In late March, Carney requested an early election from Mary Simon, the Governor General of Canada appointed by the Queen of England.

According to the normal schedule, the elections were planned for October.

In late December last year, the Liberals’ chances of staying in power seemed quite low due to the rapid decline in Trudeau’s popularity, and polls indicated that the Conservatives were leading by more than 20 points.

However, the leadership change in the Liberal Party allowed the party not only to close the gap but also, according to public opinion polls, to pull ahead of their rivals by a few points.

According to research conducted by Abacus, Carney’s public support (46%) was also higher than that of his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre (39%) before the election.

Unlike his younger rival Poilievre, Carney is a new name in politics. Carney earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Harvard University in 1988, where he also played on the university’s hockey team.

He continued to play hockey while earning his master’s and doctoral degrees at Oxford. Parallel to his education, Carney began working at Goldman Sachs, where he served for 13 years in the company’s Boston, London, New York, Tokyo, and Toronto branches.

In 2003, Carney left the private sector to become Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, and later served as Senior Associate Deputy Minister in the Department of Finance.

He took the helm of the Bank of Canada in 2007, on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. His successes in this role led to an offer to return to London in 2013, this time as Governor of the Bank of England.

Carney, the first foreigner appointed to this position, witnessed two significant referendums in the history of the United Kingdom: Scotland’s separation from the UK (which failed) and the UK’s departure from the European Union.

The final weeks of his tenure at the Bank of England coincided with the beginning of another sharp crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic. Carney acquired British and Irish citizenship in 2018 (although he announced plans to relinquish them in 2025).

After leaving the Bank of England, Carney advised the Trudeau government on economic matters and returned to the private sector.

In September last year, he was appointed chair of the party’s economic growth working group by then-Prime Minister Trudeau.

Following Trudeau’s resignation in January 2025, Carney entered the party’s leadership race, his first election, and won an overwhelming victory, receiving approximately 86% of the votes. Along with the Liberal Party leadership, he also took the prime minister’s seat.

According to the Abacus poll, relations with the new US President Donald Trump and the response to his tariff policy were among the most important issues for Canadian voters in these elections, after the cost of living crisis.

Carney described the US tariffs as a “direct attack” on Canadians and stated, “There is no going back. As Canada, we will have to build new relations with the United States.”

Carney is focusing on retaliatory tariffs and diversifying trade partners.

In this context, his first foreign visits as prime minister were to France and the UK; however, the New York Times notes that opportunities to increase exports to European markets appear limited for now.

Carney is not rushing to make a trade agreement with the US immediately and argues that Canada has sufficient leverage to adopt a “wait and see” position.

“My government will make the right deal,” Carney promised.

Even before taking office, Trump had threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, citing their insufficient efforts to combat illegal immigration and drug trafficking across their shared borders.

On March 4, 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico came into effect, but products covered by the trilateral trade agreement were later exempted from these tariffs.

On March 12, the Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum (Canada is a key supplier of both), and on March 26, 25% tariffs on all automobiles imported into the US, including American brands manufactured abroad.

Trump even threatened on April 23 that he might soon increase the rate for cars imported from Canada, stating, “With all due respect, we don’t need your cars. We really want to make our own cars.”

Carney also promised support for Canadian workers affected by the tariffs, funded by revenue from retaliatory tariffs.

According to information on the Liberal Party’s website, the Canadian prime minister also announced tax cuts that will ease the economic burden on 22 million Canadians, particularly those with middle and low incomes.

Carney also pledges to double the pace of housing construction, modernize the healthcare system, and continue the policy of reducing emissions and using alternative energy sources.