Major US cities lose child population rapidly amid soaring costs and falling birth rates

Against the backdrop of record-low birth rates across the US, major urban centers are experiencing a pronounced decline in the number of children residing in city limits.

An analysis conducted by The Wall Street Journal based on US Census Bureau data spanning from 2015 to 2024 reveals that the child population in the nation’s largest metropolises is eroding rapidly.

In a report titled “America’s Biggest Cities Are Fast Losing Kids,” the newspaper detailed that even urban centers recording overall population growth are struggling to retain their pediatric demographics.

Over the past decade, the number of children under the age of 18 residing in major US cities fell by 6%.

Nationwide, the decline in the under-18 population was limited to 1% over the same period. The trend was even more pronounced among younger age brackets; the number of children under the age of five in major cities dropped by 15%, compared to a 7% decline across the US as a whole.

The report noted that nearly two-thirds of the 38 US cities with populations exceeding 500,000 recorded a contraction in their child populations.

San Jose and New York lead the decline

In San Jose, California—where the median household income is nearly double the national average—the number of children under five dropped by 34% over the past decade. This contraction makes San Jose the most severely affected among major urban centers in the loss of early childhood demographics.

In New York City, renowned for its high cost of living, the child population shrank by 8% over the decade. Melissa Pumphrey, Chief Economist at the New York City Economic Development Corporation, stated that since 2000, the city has lost 80,000 middle-income households headed by individuals aged 30 to 54 who were married or had at least one child.

Pumphrey attributed the drop to the outward migration of middle-income families. Over the same timeframe, the number of single-person households or households without children under 18 in New York City expanded by 670,000.

In New York, parents require an annual income of $334,000 to cover the cost of raising a two-year-old child.

Citing data from the real estate and rental platform StreetEasy, the report noted that the median monthly rent for apartments with three or more bedrooms in New York stands at $5,495.

Similar demographic contractions were observed in cities with relatively lower costs of living. The child population fell by 15% in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and by 11% in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

The decline in Albuquerque was driven by negative net domestic migration and falling fertility rates. In Bernalillo County, which comprises the core of the city’s population, the number of annual births dropped by 20% over the last decade.

The pandemic and shifting birth dynamics

The exodus of families with children from major urban centers began in 2017 and accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic amid the widespread adoption of remote work.

Connor O’Brien, a researcher at the Institute for Progress think tank, noted that the pandemic prompted households to re-evaluate their lifestyles. “Families suddenly had many more options for where to live, and they took advantage of them,” O’Brien said.

Another primary driver of the trend is the nationwide decline in birth rates, which fell by 9% overall over the past decade. This shift was largely attributed to younger women choosing to have fewer children during adolescence and throughout their 20s.

Nationwide, birth rates among Hispanic women—who constitute a significant share of urban populations—declined at an even faster pace.

O’Brien noted that between 2010 and 2024, birth rates in major metropolitan areas dropped by 18%, marking the sharpest decline among all geographic region types.

Of the 38 US cities with populations exceeding 500,000, only 13 recorded an increase in their child populations. A significant portion of these growing cities are located in Southern Sun Belt states, where housing remains relatively more affordable for middle-class families. In these cities, the child population increased by 7% over the past decade, while total population grew by 12%.

A January report by Bloomberg indicated that, contrary to official projections by the US Census Bureau, the US could face a net population decline as early as 2026.

Current baseline estimates by the Census Bureau projected that the national population would continue growing until 2080 before contracting at the turn of the 22nd century.

However, the Congressional Budget Office warned in a report last year that deaths will exceed births within eight years. The CBO projected that population growth will rely entirely on net immigration by 2033, after which point the total US population could begin to shrink.