Marine Le Pen leads all 2027 French presidential scenarios, poll shows

Marine Le Pen, the parliamentary party leader of France’s far-right National Rally (RN), is projected to win the country’s 2027 presidential election under every tested scenario.

The findings of the poll, conducted by opinion research firm Elabe for BFM and La Tribune Dimanche, showed that Le Pen has maintained her voter support despite her conviction for the misuse of public funds.

According to the results, Le Pen secures between 34% and 35.5% of voter support in the first round, depending on the varying scenarios.

A total of 1,501 people aged 18 and over took part in the online poll conducted by Elabe between 26 and 28 August. Registered voters accounted for 1,378 of the participants in the survey, with the margin of error reported to be between 1.4% and 3.1%.

Maintains lead across second-round scenarios

In the first-round contest, Jean-Luc Melenchon, the founder of the France Unbowed (LFI) movement, ranks second with 14% to 14.5% of the vote.

Raphael Glucksmann, leader of the centre-left Place Publique, secures between 11.5% and 14% of support, depending on the scenario.

Le Pen is also shown maintaining her advantage in every second-round possibility. The widest vote margin emerges in a run-off against Melenchon, where Le Pen reaches 69.5% against 30.5%.

The far-right leader also secures clear victories against Glucksmann and former prime minister Gabriel Attal by 57% to 43%.

The narrowest margin is observed in a race against former prime minister Edouard Philippe; in this scenario, Le Pen takes 52.5% against Philippe’s 47.5%.

French President Emmanuel Macron is serving his second consecutive term, which expires on 14 May 2027. Under French law, an individual cannot serve more than two consecutive terms as president.

The first round of France’s presidential election is scheduled to be held on 18 April 2027, with the second round set for 2 May.

Alongside Le Pen, former interior minister Bruno Retailleau, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Gabriel Attal, former French president Francois Hollande, Edouard Philippe, and Raphael Glucksmann have also declared their intention to run in the presidential race.

Marine Le Pen confirmed in July that she would contest the presidential election. Earlier that same day, the Paris Court of Appeal delivered its final judgment regarding Le Pen, finding her guilty of misappropriating European Parliament funds, without any element of personal enrichment.

The court sentenced Le Pen to a fine of 100,000 euros, a three-year prison sentence with two years suspended, and a 45-month ban on running for public office, with 30 months suspended. Because the period of ineligibility is calculated from 31 March 2025, Le Pen remains officially eligible to stand as a candidate in the 2027 presidential election.