According to the ARD Deutschlandtrend poll published in Germany on Thursday, Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is in first place with 31 percent of the vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained one percentage point compared to the previous week, securing second place with 21 percent.
Merz has also seen a significant rise in personal popularity (+4 points) and as the preferred candidate for the chancellorship (+5 points), while incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz gained six points in personal approval ratings. However, support for Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) remained stagnant at 15 percent, and the Greens dropped by one point to 14 percent.
The Free Democratic Party (FDP), which exited the traffic light coalition, garnered 4 percent, as did the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht – For Reason and Justice (BSW). The Left Party (Die Linke) received 5 percent.
The poll, conducted between Monday and Wednesday this week, was among the first results following a dramatic week in the German parliament. Last Wednesday, Merz, with the support of the AfD, successfully passed a non-binding motion calling for the implementation of a strict five-point plan on migration. The plan includes measures such as turning back all irregular migrants and asylum seekers at the German border.
Attempts by the CDU/CSU bloc to pass a more moderate motion failed due to insufficient support from their own ranks. Observers interpreted Merz’s maneuver as a strategic move to demonstrate his commitment to addressing immigration issues after a tragic incident last month in Aschaffenburg, where an asylum seeker stabbed two people, including a two-year-old boy, to death.
Despite Merz’s surge in popularity, public opinion remains divided on cooperation with the AfD. In the same ARD Deutschlandtrend poll, 49 percent of respondents deemed bills that could be passed with AfD support unacceptable, while 44 percent found them acceptable.
Early federal elections will be held in Germany on 23 February.
