Modi declares historic BJP victory in West Bengal as party breaches Trinamool stronghold

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has declared a historic victory for his Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal, as vote-counting trends from elections held in April showed the party preparing to form a government in the politically critical eastern state for the first time.

Modi, whose party was on track to take the lead in the state, posted on X: “Lotus is blooming in West Bengal!” in a reference to the BJP’s symbol. “The 2026 West Bengal Assembly Elections will be remembered forever,” he added.

“The power of the people has prevailed and the BJP’s politics of good governance has triumphed. The people have given the BJP a magnificent mandate, and I assure them that our Party will do everything possible to fulfil the dreams and aspirations of the people of West Bengal,” Modi said.

The outcome reflects the BJP consolidating its political position in regions beyond its traditional strongholds in the north and west of the country.

West Bengal had been governed for the past 15 years by the All India Trinamool Congress, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, a rival of the BJP.

Three other states – Assam in the northeast, and Tamil Nadu and Kerala in the south – as well as the federally administered southern territory of Puducherry also held elections last month.

According to data from the Election Commission of India, the BJP was either leading or had won in 204 of West Bengal’s 294 seats as of 19:00 local time.

Ahead of the elections, reports that approximately 9 million voters – amounting to more than 10% of the total – had been removed as part of a revision of the electoral rolls had been a major focus of the campaign. The BJP argues that the revision carried out by the commission was necessary to prevent illegal immigrants from neighbouring Bangladesh from voting; its opponents contend the move was aimed at tilting the rolls in the BJP’s favour.

West Bengal plays a critical role in India’s national politics because the state sends 42 representatives to the 545-member Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament. That makes West Bengal the third-largest state by number of elected members, after the northern state of Uttar Pradesh with 80 seats and the western state of Maharashtra with 48.

The decisive surge shown by the BJP-led alliance in the West Bengal vote-counting trends reflects the party’s growing influence in regions outside its traditional bastions. Modi’s party had lost its outright majority in the 2024 general election and was forced to rely on allies to form the national government for a third consecutive term; however, it has since won several key state elections.

Meanwhile, in Assam the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is set to return to power for a third straight term, while in Tamil Nadu a new political party founded by the popular actor-turned-politician Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar is emerging as the largest single party. In Kerala, an alliance led by the Indian National Congress is poised to form a government, while in Puducherry the ruling coalition, which includes the BJP, holds the lead.

In a later address to party workers, the Prime Minister highlighted the BJP’s return to power in Assam for a third consecutive term and said the northeastern state would accelerate its development.

“Today there are BJP-NDA governments in more than 20 states of the country,” he said, adding that people had come to see the BJP as synonymous with “good governance.”

The war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which has caused a shortage of cooking gas, did not appear to be a central issue among voters; experts said other factors were at play.

“It is historic,” political analyst Rasheed Kidwai, a visiting fellow at the Observer Research Foundation think tank, told Nikkei Asia, referring to the BJP’s performance in West Bengal. Kidwai cited anti-incumbency sentiment against the Trinamool Congress, corruption allegations relating to public programmes, the revision of the electoral rolls, and a lack of unity among opposition parties as factors working in favour of Modi’s party.

“The BJP’s right-wing political approach is evolving and winning the confidence of the majority community, while the opposition is fragmented and divided,” he said.

Both West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are governed by parties that are key constituents of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, a coalition of opposition parties formed in 2023 to take on the BJP. With the grip of these parties weakening, analysts expect Modi and the BJP to gain strength in the run-up to the 2029 national election.

V.S. Chandrasekar, a New Delhi-based political observer and former editor-in-chief of the Press Trust of India news agency, told Nikkei Asia that although the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala remain beyond the BJP’s control, “on the surface at the moment, the BJP broadly emerges as the winner and the opposition appears weakened.”

“But three years is a long time in politics,” he said. “By then, how the BJP-led government at the centre performs and the extent to which people’s expectations are met will determine the BJP’s performance in the 2029 election. Modi is not invincible at present.”